Tonight we have tripleheader of Week 13 MACtion across the College Football gridiron. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning for all three matchups using our VSiN CFB Betting Splits, which are updated every 5 minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.
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7 p.m. ET: Massachusetts at Ohio (-33.5, 53.5)
Massachusetts (0-10) hasn’t won a single game this season and just got rolled by Northern Illinois 45-3, failing to cover as 9.5-point home dogs. Meanwhile, Ohio (6-4) just saw their three-game win streak come to an end, losing to Western Michigan 17-13 and failing to cover as 1.5-point road dogs.
This line opened with Ohio listed as a 32-point home favorite.
Sharps aren’t scared off by the massive spread and have laid the points with Ohio, steaming the Bobcats up from -32 to -33.5.
At DraftKings, Ohio is taking in 62% of spread bets and a whopping 90% of spread dollars. At Circa, Ohio is receiving 63% of spread bets and 91% of spread dollars. Both books are showing a notable “low bets, higher dollars” bet discrepancy indicating slight public support but also heavy smart money in favor of a blowout win and cover for the home team.
Ohio is far better on both sides of the ball, averaging 24.3 PPG on offense compared to 8.8 PPG for Massachusetts and giving up 22.2 PPG compared to 38.8 PPG allowed by Massachusetts.
The Bobcats also enjoy a rest advantage, having last played on November 11th while the Minutemen last played on November 12th.
In terms of the total, we saw it open at 51 and rise to 53.5.
At Circa, the over is receiving 80% of bets and 97% of dollars, further evidence of heavy sharp money banking on a higher scoring game.
The forecast calls for low 40s with mild 5-10 MPH winds but also some rain showers, especially early in the game.
7 p.m. ET: Akron at Bowling Green (-3, 46.5)
Akron (4-7) just saw their two-game win streak come to an end, falling to Kent State 42-35 in overtime and losing outright as 7.5-point home favorites. On the other hand, Bowling Green (3-7) has dropped four in a row and just came up short against Eastern Michigan 27-21, failing to cover as 3-point road dogs.
This line opened with Bowling Green listed as a 3.5-point home favorite.
Sharps have jumped on Akron plus the points, dropping the Zips down from +3.5 to +3, with some shops even inching toward +2.5. Essentially, all movement and liability has gone in favor of the road dog.
At DraftKings, Akron is receiving 53% of spread bets and 67% of spread dollars. At Circa, Akron is taking in 89% of spread bets and 99% of spread dollars. Both books are showing a pronounced “low bets, higher dollars” split in favor of Akron, especially from the wiseguys out in Vegas.
MACtion dogs getting between 3 and 7 points are 35-25 ATS (58%) with an 11% ROI since 2022.
Short road dogs getting 4-points or less are 663-595 ATS (53%) with a 2% ROI since 2012.
Wiseguys have also leaned under, dropping the total from 47.5 to 46.5.
This downward movement is notable because the public is hammering the over (67% of bets at DraftKings), yet the total fell. At Circa, the under is taking in 75% of bets and over 90% of dollars, a sharp “low bets, higher dollars” split and further evidence of pros out in the desert backing a lower scoring game.
The forecast calls for mid 30s with cloudy skies and 5-10 MPH winds.
7 p.m. ET: Western Michigan (-6.5, 38.5) at Northern Illinois
Western Michigan (6-4) just held off Ohio 17-13, covering as 1.5-point home favorites. Meanwhile, Northern Illinois (3-7) just destroyed Massachusetts 45-3, easily covering as 9.5-point road favorites.
This line opened with Western Michigan listed as a 6-point road favorite.
Sharps have laid the points with the road chalk, driving Western Michigan up from -6 to -6.5. In addition, most the of the market is juicing up Western Michigan -6.5 (-115) and a few other books have inched up to -7.
At DraftKings, Western Michigan is receiving 70% of spread bets and 73% of spread dollars. At Circa, Western Michigan is taking in 73% of spread bets and a hefty 97% of spread dollars, indicating heavy pro support in favor of laying the points with the road favorite.
Western Michigan has the better scoring offense (19 PPG vs 15.1 PPG) and scoring defense (allowing 18.9 PPG vs 22.8 PPG).
In terms of the total, we’ve seen it remain relatively stagnant at 38.5.
At DraftKings, the under is taking in 31% of bets and 48% of dollars. At Circa, the under is receiving 63% of bets but 81% of dollars. Both books are showing a wiseguy split in favor of a lower scoring game.
The forecast calls for low 40s with cloudy skies and 7-10 MPH winds with gusts up to 15 MPH.
