Week 13 of the College Football regular season kicks off tonight with a tripleheader of MACtion. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning using our VSiN CFB Betting Splits, which come directly from DraftKings and are updated every 10-minutes. We will also be referencing our new Circa Sports bet splits in order to better locate sharp action from respected players.

 

***Top College Football Betting Resources***

*Join thousands of other sports bettors and unlock access to picks, public betting splits data, & the VSiN live video broadcast by upgrading to VSiN Pro. Grab your first month for less than $10.*

7 p.m. ET: Akron (-10, 49.5) at Kent State

Akron (2-8) has lost two straight games and just came up short against Northern Illinois 29-16 but managed to cover as 14-point road dogs. On the other hand, Kent State (0-10) hasn’t won a single game all season and just fell to Miami Ohio 34-7 but covered as 30.5-point road dogs. This line opened with Akron listed as a 9.5-point road favorite. Pros and Joes seem to both be fading Kent State, as Akron has moved up from -9.5 to -10, with some shops inching up to -10.5. Akron is receiving 62% of spread bets and 76% of spread dollars, signaling modest public support but also respected sharp action in the form of a “low bets, higher dollars” bet split. At Circa, Akron is receiving 71% of spread bets and 91% of spread dollars, another sharp discrepancy. Akron is better on offense (18.6 PPG vs 14.3 PPG) and defense (allowing 35.3 PPG vs 44.8 PPG). Sharps have also hit the under, dropping the total from 50.5 to 49.5. The under is only receiving 50% of bets but 61% of dollars. In a vacuum, a line shouldn’t move at all if the tickets are even. So, we know based upon the drop that the bigger, sharper wagers are banking on a lower scoring game. At Circa, which prides itself on taking in sharp action, the under is receiving 78% of bets but a whopping 97% of dollars. These are two of the slowest teams in College Football, with Akron ranking 113th in pace of play and Kent State ranking 129th (out of 134 teams). The forecast calls for high 50s with 7 MPH winds and gusts up to 15 MPH.

7:30 p.m. ET: Western Michigan (-6, 56.5) at Central Michigan

Western Michigan (5-5) has dropped two straight games and just got rolled by Bowling Green 31-13, failing to cover as 9.5-point road dogs. Meanwhile, Central Michigan (3-7) has lost five straight games and just got crushed by Toledo 37-10, failing to cover as 14.5-point road dogs. This line opened with Western Michigan listed as high as a 7.5-point road favorite. The public takes one look at each team’s won-loss records is happy to lay the points with Western Michigan and fade Central Michigan. However, despite receiving 71% of spread bets we’ve seen Western Michigan fall from -7.5 to -6. Some shops are even down to -5.5. This signals sharp reverse line movement on Central Michigan, as the line has moved in their favor despite being the unpopular home dog. Central Michigan is the top contrarian play of the night, receiving only 29% of spread bets in a heavily bet game on ESPN2. MACtion dogs getting 5.5-points or more are 12-9 ATS (57%) this season and 67-46 ATS (59%) with a 13% ROI since 2021. Sharps have also leaned over, raising the total from 55.5 to 56.5. The over is receiving 56% of bets but 69% of dollars, a sharp “low bets, higher dollars” bet split. At Circa, the over is receiving 57% of bets but 95% of dollars, further evidence of sharp money siding with a higher scoring game. Both defenses are porous, with Western Michigan allowing 34.3 PPG and Central Michigan giving up 31.8 PPG.

8 p.m. ET: Northern Illinois at Miami Ohio (-2.5, 43)

Northern Illinois (6-4) has won two straight and just took down Akron 29-16 but failed to cover as 14-point home favorites. On the flip side, Miami Ohio (6-4) has won five straight and just dismissed Kent State 34-7 but failed to cover as 30.5-point home favorites. This line opened with Miami Ohio listed as a 3.5-point home favorite. The public is riding the hot hand and laying the points with Miami Ohio at home. However, despite receiving 71% of spread bets we’ve seen Miami Ohio fall from -3.5 to -2.5. Some books are even down to -2. Why would the oddsmakers drop the line to make it easier for the public to cover when they’re already hammering Miami Ohio to begin with? Because pro money has sided with Northern Illinois plus the points, triggering sharp reverse line movement in favor of the unpopular road dog. At Circa, Northern Illinois is receiving 39% of spread bets but 63% of spread dollars, a sharp contrarian “low bets, higher dollars” bet split. Shorts road dogs getting 4-points or less are roughly 54% ATS over the past decade. With roughly 3-points awarded for home field advantage, this means the game would be roughly a pick’em on a neutral field. Northern Illinois is also a “dog who can score” system match (25.8 PPG), thereby keeping pace or backdoor covering. Northern Illinois has the far better rushing attack as well, ranking 13th in rushing yards per game (209.4) while Miami Ohio ranks 81st (141.1).

RELATED ARTICLESMORE FROM AUTHOR