College Football Bowl Season continues today with a pair of postseason matchups to choose from. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning for both Bowl Games using using our CFB Betting Splits, which are updated every 5 minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.
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5 p.m. ET: Old Dominion vs South Florida (-4, 52.5)
This is the StaffDNA Cure Bowl and it will be played at Camping World Stadium in Orlando, Florida.
Old Dominion (9-3) has won five straight games and just took down Georgia State 27-10 but failed to cover as 29-point home favorites. On the other hand, South Florida (9-3) has won two in a row and just crushed Rice 52-3, covering as 28.5-point home favorites.
This line opened with South Florida listed as a 7-point neutral site favorite.
The public is rushing to the window to lay the points with South Florida, who is coming off a blowout win and enjoys de-facto home field advantage.
However, despite receiving 69% of spread bets at DraftKings we’ve seen South Florida tumble from -7 to -4, with some shops reaching as low as -2.5 at times throughout the week. This signals sharp reverse line movement in favor of Old Dominion plus the points, as the line has moved in their favor despite he public pounding South Florida.
At DraftKings, Old Dominion is receiving 31% of spread bets but 48% of spread dollars, a notable “low bets, higher dollars” sharp contrarian bet split in a heavily bet standalone game on ESPN.
One of the main reasons we’ve seen such drastic line movement toward Old Dominion is the fact that South Florida is dealing with several key opt-outs. Starting quarterback Byrum Brown has opted out and the Bulls will also be without several wide receivers and defensive players due to opt-outs and injuries.
South Florida will also be without their head coach Alex Golesh and OC Joel Gordon, who are moving on to coach at Auburn. Defensive line coach Kevin Patrick will be the interim coach for this matchup.
On the flip side, motivation is likely high for Old Dominion as they are searching for their first Bowl Game victory under 5th year head coach Ricky Rahne.
Old Dominion has the edge defensively, allowing 20.5 PPG compared to 24.2 PPG allowed by South Florida.
Following all of the opt-outs and injuries, we’ve seen this total plummet from 55.5 to 52.5.
At DraftKings, the under is receiving 49% of bets and 60% of dollars. At Circa, the under is taking in 43% of bets and a whopping 76% of dollars. Both books are showing a notable sharp contrarian bet split in favor of a lower scoring game.
The forecast calls for high 60s, low 70s with cloudy skies and 7-10 MPH winds with gusts up to 15 MPH.
8:30 p.m. ET: Louisiana (-2.5, 60.5) vs Delaware
This is the 68 Ventures Bowl and it will be played at Hancock Whitney Stadium in Mobile, Alabama.
Louisiana (6-6) has won four straight and just edged UL Monroe 30-27 in overtime but failed to cover as 10.5-point home favorites. On the other hand, Delaware (6-6) just snapped a two-game losing skid with a 61-31 win over UTEP, easily covering as 4.5-point home favorites.
This line opened with Louisiana listed as a 3.5-point neutral site favorite.
The public is leaning toward laying the points with the Ragin’ Cajuns, who are the more well-known brand.
However, despite receiving 55% of spread bets at DraftKings we’ve seen Louisiana fall from -3.5 to -2.5, with some shops inching down to -2 or even -1.5 on gameday. The movement toward Delaware has been steady and consistent all week without any notable buyback on Louisiana.
Why would the oddsmakers drop the line to make it easier for the public to cover when they’re already leaning Louisiana to begin with? Because respected smart money from pro bettors has targeted Delaware plus the points, triggering sharp reverse line movement in favor of the dog.
At DraftKings, Delaware is taking in 45% of spread bets and 61% of spread dollars. At Circa, Delaware is receiving 50% of spread bets and 61% of spread dollars. Both books are showing a sharp “low bets, higher dollars” bet split in favor of the Blue Hens.
We’ve also seen a sharp split in favor of the Blue Hens earning an outright victory (+115), as they are taking in 31% of moneyline bets and 61% of moneyline dollars at DraftKings and 67% of moneyline bets and a whopping 94% of moneyline dollars at Circa.
Neither team is experiencing any major opt-outs, however, motivation may lean toward Delaware in this one.
The Blue Hens are in the first year as a FBS team and would love to earn a victory in their first ever Bowl Game in order to establish and build their program. On the other hand, Louisiana went 10-4 last season, reaching the Sun Belt Championship and then played TCU in the New Mexico Bowl. So, going .500 this season and then facing Delaware in this early Bowl Game matchup may be a bit of a let down.
In terms of the total, we’ve seen some steady over action jack up the number from 58 to 60.5.
At DraftKings, the over is taking in 48% of bets and a hefty 88% of dollars, further evidence of heavy pro money banking on a higher scoring game.
The forecast calls for high 50s with cloudy skies and mild 7 MPH winds with gusts up to 12 MPH.
