Tonight we have a Week 13 MACtion doubleheader on tap as Miami Ohio visits Buffalo and Kent State hosts Central Michigan. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning for both matchups using our VSiN CFB Betting Splits, which are updated every 5 minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.
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7 p.m. ET: Miami Ohio (-2.5, 38.5) at Buffalo
Miami Ohio (5-5) has dropped two in a row and just got rolled by Toledo 24-3, failing to cover as 5.5-point home dogs. Similarly, Buffalo (5-5) has lost two of their last three and just came up short against Central Michigan 38-19, failing to cover as 2.5-point road dogs.
This line opened with Buffalo listed as a 2-point home favorite.
Sharps have gotten down hard on Miami Ohio, flipping the RedHawks from a 2-point road dog to a 2.5-point road favorite. Several shops are juicing up Miami Ohio -2.5 (-115), signaling further liability in favor of the road team.
At DraftKings, Miami Ohio is receiving 57% of spread bets and 69% of spread dollars. At Circa, Miami Ohio is taking in 62% of spread bets but a whopping 91% of spread dollars. Both books are showing a notable “low bets, higher dollars” sharp split in favor of the RedHawks.
Wiseguys have also looked to mitigate some risk in the event of a close game by targeting Miami Ohio on the moneyline at -135.
When two MACtion teams face off in conference play, the favorite is 25-11 (69%) straight up this season and 100-33 (75%) straight up with a 3% ROI since 2023. If the MACtion favorite is also coming off a loss, they improve to 11-4 (73%) straight up this season and 39-11 (78%) straight up with a 14% ROI since 2023.
We could also be looking at a lower scoring game, as the total has been bet down from 40 to 38.5.
This downward movement is especially notable considering that the public is hammering the over (78% of bets at DraftKings and 80% of bets at Circa), yet the total has fallen.
The forecast calls for mid to low 30s with clear skies and 5-10 MPH winds.
7 p.m. ET: Central Michigan (-8.5, 50.5) at Kent State
Central Michigan (6-4) has won three of their last four games and just dominated Buffalo 38-19, easily covering as 2.5-point home favorites. Meanwhile, Kent State (4-6) has won two of their last three and just upset Akron 42-35 in overtime, winning outright as 7.5-point road dogs.
This line opened with Central Michigan listed as a 7.5-point road favorite.
Early smart money laid the points with Central Michigan, steaming the Chippewas up from -7.5 to -9.5.
However, over the past 24-hours we’ve seen some respected buyback on Kent State, dropping the Golden Flashes back down from +9.5 to +8.5. Essentially, late movement is breaking back toward the home dog plus the points.
Kent State offers “bet against the public” value as they are only receiving 43% of spread bets at DraftKings.
At Circa, Kent State is only taking in 33% of spread bets but 60% of spread dollars, a sharp contrarian “low bets, higher dollars” bet discrepancy and further evidence of the pros out in the desert taking the points with the unpopular home team.
Home conference dogs are 91-74 ATS (55%) with a 5% ROI this season and 203-168 ATS (55%) with a 5% ROI since 2024.
When two MACtion teams face off in conference play, the dog getting 8-points or more points is 53-40 ATS (57%) with a 9% ROI since 2021. If the dog getting 8-points or more is at home, they improve to 22-15 ATS (60%) with a 13% ROI since 2021.
Kent State enjoys a one-day rest advantage, having last played on November 11th compared to Central Michigan last playing on November 12th.
Kent State is 3-1 at home. Central Michigan is 2-4 on the road.
Sharps have also hammered the over, raising the total up from 46.5 to 50.5.
Weather shouldn’t be an issue, as the forecast calls for mid to high 30s with cloudy skies and mild 5 MPH winds.
