Tonight we have a pair of midweek MACtion games to choose from across the College Football gridiron. Let’s examine where early smart money is leaning using our VSiN CFB Betting Splits, which come directly from DraftKings and are updated every 10-minutes.

 

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7 p.m. ET: Ohio (-20.5, 52.5) at Kent State

Ohio (5-3) has won three of their last four games and just crushed Buffalo 47-16, easily covering as 3.5-point home favorites. Meanwhile, Kent State (0-8) is winless on the season and just fell to Western Michigan 52-21, failing to cover as 19-point road dogs. This line opened with Ohio listed as a 19-point road favorite. The public and the sharps seem to agree that this opener was a bit short and they’ve both laid the points with Ohio, steaming the Bobcats up from -19 to -20.5. Ohio is receiving 66% of spread bets and 84% of spread dollars, indicating a sharp Pro and Joe “low bets, higher dollars” bet split. Ohio is far better on both sides of the ball. The Bobcats are averaging 25 PPG on offense compared to 17 PPG for Kent State. Ohio is also giving up 23 PPG on defense compared to 46.5 for Kent State. In terms of the total, it opened at 52.5 and has remained relatively stagnant. Some shops have even reached 53 and fell back down to 52.5. This lack of movement is notable because the public is hammering the over (72% of bets), yet the line has barely budged. This signals a bit of a sharp contrarian line freeze on the under, as the books have been reluctant to raise the total despite heavy public over betting. The under is receiving 29% of bets but 41% of dollars, a sharp “low bets, higher dollars” bet split. The forecast calls for low 60s with partly cloudy skies and mild 5 MPH winds. Both teams are on the slower end of the spectrum in terms of pace of play, with Ohio ranking 96th and Kent State ranking 126th (out of 134 teams).

7 p.m. ET: Northern Illinois (-1.5, 52) at Western Michigan

Northern Illinois (4-4) has dropped two straight games and just fell to Ball State 25-23, losing outright as 13.5-point road favorites. On the flip side, Western Michigan (5-3) has won four straight games and just crushed Kent State 52-21, covering as 19-point home favorites. This line opened with Western Michigan listed as 1.5-point home favorite. The public sees two evenly matched teams and doesn’t know whether to take the points or lay them. However, despite this even spread bet split, we’ve seen the line move in favor of Northern Illinois, flipping the Huskies from a 1.5-point road dog to a 1.5-point road favorite. In a vacuum, a line shouldn’t move at all if the bets are even because, theoretically, the oddsmakers have no reason to adjust the number. So, based on this “dog to favorite” line move we can infer that pro money has sided with Northern Illinois. The Huskies are receiving 52% of spread bets but 70% of spread dollars, a sharp “low bets, higher dollars” bet split and further evidence of wiseguy action backing the road team. Those looking to mitigate some risk in a potentially tight game could instead elect to play Northern Illinois on the moneyline at -120. The Huskies are receiving 47% of moneyline bets but 59% of moneyline dollars. Northern Illinois has a big edge on defense, only allowing 18 PPG compared to Western Michigan giving up 34 PPG. The Huskies also have buy-low value as a favorite on a two-game losing skid against a sell-high dog on a four-game winning streak. In terms of the total, the public is playing the over (67% of bets), yet we’ve seen it tick down slightly from 52.5 to 52. Some shops are even down to 51.5. This signals some sharp under reverse line movement. The forecast calls for low 50s with partly cloudy skies and 7 MPH winds.

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