Troy vs. Jacksonville State
Just a few days after the Army-Navy Game seems like a good time for the IS4S Salute to Veterans Bowl in Montgomery, Alabama. This year’s version will feature Troy vs. Jacksonville State, as two conference championship runners-up look to end the season on a high note with a win.
Troy came up well short, but did cover the spread, against James Madison in the Sun Belt Championship Game a little over a week ago, while Jacksonville State lost SU and ATS against Kennesaw State in the Conference USA Championship Game, as the Owls got revenge over the Gamecocks for a regular season defeat. Now these two teams have a chance to have a short memory and go out with a victory.
Odds from Circa Sports as of December 13, 11:45 a.m. PT; check out our Circa Betting Splits and DraftKings Betting Splits.
IS4S Salute to Veterans Bowl: Troy (-2.5, 46.5) vs. Jacksonville State
Tuesday, Dec. 16, 9 p.m. ET (ESPN)
The most notable line movement so far in this game has been on the total, which opened as high as 51.5 and dropped by five points. Troy lost starting QB Goose Crowder in the SBC title game and many feel like he has more upside than Tucker Kilcrease. At least that was the case early in the season when Crowder went down and it seemed like there was a big adjustment to Troy’s power rating.
Crowder is reportedly practicing, so we’ll see if he can go. He completed 58.9% of his passes with an 11/5 TD/INT ratio and, as I mentioned, it does seem like the betting market believes that he is the better player. He did win the preseason QB competition after all.
Kilcrease is hardly inexperienced, as he’s got a 9/4 TD/INT ratio this season over 199 pass attempts with a 59.3% completion rate. He’s also the team’s third-leading rusher, although that’s not really an accomplishment because he has 112 yards on 104 carries. His yards per carry average has certainly hurt Troy as a team, as the Trojans only have 2.8 YPC, but leading back Tae Meadows only has 4.4 yards per carry on 159 attempts and backup Jordan Lovett has 3.9 on 81 carries. Meadows is also going to be in the transfer portal when it opens on Jan. 2, so he has opted out.
That’s the huge difference in this game. Last season, Jacksonville State was third in rushing yards per game with more than 250 and they actually led the nation in rushing touchdowns with 51. When Rich Rodriguez left for his second stint at West Virginia and QB Tyler Huff ran out of eligibility, the prevailing thought was that the Gamecocks would suffer an enormous drop-off in terms of running the rock. Well, as it turns out, they are fourth in rushing yards per game with 258 this season.
However, they have 20 fewer rushing touchdowns with one more game to play, so I don’t think they’re going to match last season’s total. Had first-year head coach Charles Kelly gone to QB Caden Creel sooner, maybe they’d have gotten closer. Creel has an 8/4 TD/INT ratio with a 60.7% completion rate, but he’s got a 1,000-yard season as a runner with seven TDs. Cam Cook has 1,659 rushing yards and 16 scores as the nation’s leading rusher by nearly 100 yards over Mizzou’s Ahmad Harvey. Up until the Army-Navy game, Creel was the nation’s leading rusher at the QB position.
So, the Gamecocks have an enormous rushing advantage. Another area where they may find some edges is in the pass-rushing department. While they only averaged two sacks per game and Troy averaged nearly 2.5, the Trojans have allowed a nation-high 57 sacks. The next closest team entering the bowl season was Ball State with 49. Not surprisingly, with two very mobile QBs, Jacksonville State has only allowed 19 sacks.
A big strength of schedule discrepancy does exist here. There are 136 FBS teams and Jacksonville State has played the 143rd-ranked schedule per Jeff Sagarin, who also rates FCS teams. Troy, meanwhile, played the 93rd-ranked schedule. The main differences are that Troy played (and lost to) Clemson, Memphis, and James Madison. Jacksonville State’s non-conference featured UCF, Liberty, Georgia Southern, and Murray State.
Troy vs. Jacksonville State Salute to Veterans Bowl Prediction
My line on the game is Jacksonville State +1.5, but their ability to run the ball is such a huge edge in this game, not to mention their ability to avoid sacks. Troy has the chance at far more negative plays in this game and that’s enough for me to back the Gamecocks. Even if Crowder is able to return and go for the Trojans here, I don’t think it makes a huge difference. It could move the line a little bit higher on Troy’s side if he is announced as the starter, so those who want to back the Gamecocks may not need to jump on the line right away. We could get a better price.
Pick: Jacksonville State +2.5
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