Troy vs. James Madison
Will style points come into the equation for Troy vs. James Madison in the Sun Belt Conference Championship Game? It could be suggested that the Dukes might as well win by as much as possible and the line implies that it will be a lot, as the host team is more than a three-touchdown favorite against the Trojans. Ironically, the Dukes are rooting for Duke, as an upset in the ACC Championship Game would open up the possibility for departing head coach Bob Chesney to lead his team to the College Football Playoff.
Not only is a conference title on the line for Troy, but also the chance to play spoiler and eliminate the CFP possibility from the equation. It would take one of the biggest upsets of the season to get there, but it wouldn’t be the biggest. Needless to say, it’ll take a huge effort from Gerad Parker’s team to win and maybe even to keep the game close.
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Troy vs. James Madison (-23, 48) Preview
Friday, 7 p.m. ET (ESPN)
Conference officials would certainly prefer a more competitive championship game than what this appears to be on the surface, but James Madison, the only 8-0 team in Sun Belt action, is actually a top-30 team in Jeff Sagarin’s rankings. They were a juggernaut under Curt Cignetti and have continued to be even after Cignetti went to Bloomington where he is in the midst of one of the biggest program turnarounds in college football history with the Hoosiers.
Cignetti’s replacement will be taking the UCLA job whenever his team’s season is over. We’ll see if Chesney has another game or two left after this one, but all of his focus and the team’s focus is on the present. The Dukes won their conference games by an average of more than 27 PPG, outscoring opponents 340-121. Troy, on the other hand, went 6-2 in league play with a +25 point differential.
To get to this point, the Trojans pulled off a pretty significant upset last week against Southern Miss, as they went to Hattiesburg as about a touchdown underdog and won by 10, outgaining the Golden Eagles by 124 yards. QB Goose Crowder’s mid-November return sparked the offense, as he struggled in his first game back against Old Dominion, but had seven TD passes and 646 passing yards in the final two regular season games.
As much as the return of Crowder does help, the statistical mismatch between these two teams is plenty evident in the spread. Despite a positive game state mostly all season, JMU is still 24th in the nation in yards per play with 6.42 and had 6.8 YPP in Sun Belt games, including over seven yards per play in four November games. You have to go all the way down to 122nd in the nation to find Troy with 4.9 YPP and just 5.14 YPP in conference action.
Defensively, the story is pretty similar. The Dukes are sixth in the nation in yards per play allowed with just 4.18, trailing only Oregon, San Diego State, Texas Tech, Toledo, and Ohio State. They’ve actually allowed more YPP in conference games than non-conference, but opponents in SBC contests only have 4.31 YPP. Troy is 74th overall in YPP against and has allowed 5.8 in conference games.
A lot of college football models use yards per play and yards per play differential, along with various weighted metrics, to produce spreads and totals. Usually you’ll see line movements on teams with YPP advantages. That is the case here, as even with a big spread, James Madison’s massive YPP differential, especially relative to Troy and their negative one, has bettors very confident in a blowout.
Old Dominion was clearly the second-best team in this conference from an EPA/play standpoint and James Madison dropped 63 points on them in a 36-point win. Troy was one of the 20 worst offenses in the nation by EPA/play and Chesney may have some incentive to put up a big number here.
Troy vs. James Madison Prediction
If Duke beats Virginia, there is a very realistic possibility of two Group of Five teams in the playoff because the five highest-rated conference champions make the field of 12. James Madison or the Mountain West winner (Boise State or UNLV) is likely to rate higher than the Blue Devils, who have five losses on the season. Based on some of the metrics involved, the Dukes might want to aid their cause by posting as lopsided of a score as possible.
Because of that, I’ll take James Madison -23.5 here. These two teams didn’t play during the regular season, but Old Dominion beat Troy 33-0 and the Trojans got outgained 503-138 in what was the closest they came to playing a team like James Madison in conference play.
Pick: James Madison -23
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