Troy vs. Old Dominion
After five games and two days worth of MACtion, a new conference enters the Week 12 ring on Thursday. Troy vs. Old Dominion pairs a couple of Sun Belt squads in primetime with a little love on ESPN. This game increased in importance for Troy after their loss last time out to Arkansas State to take away their unbeaten record in conference play. Old Dominion cannot win the Sun Belt East Division, but the more wins the better to increase their bowl landing spot.
As the only college football game on the card, those who aren’t interested in Jets vs. Patriots (and who can blame them?!) can tune into this one. If you are, Zachary Cohen is all over that NFL preview here.
Odds from Circa Sports as of November 11, 3:00 p.m. PT; check out our Circa Betting Splits and DraftKings Betting Splits. See all of our Week 12 College Football Picks and Predictions.
Troy vs. Old Dominion (-11, 52)
7:30 p.m. ET
Both teams have had some time to rest up and ponder what has happened this season in advance of this game. These two teams last played on Nov. 1 and that extra layoff was probably a good thing for the Trojans off of a disappointing 23-10 loss to Arkansas State. The Trojans had crossed the 30-point mark in every one of their Sun Belt games before racking up just 10 points and 187 yards against the Red Wolves.
Defensively, it was a good effort, holding Arkansas State under 300 yards, but the offense couldn’t find a rhythm. It was a rare bad game for Tucker Kilcrease, who has played well in place of Goose Crowder, who won the QB competition prior to the season, but got hurt early. Kilcrease has a 9/4 TD/INT ratio with a completion rate near 60%. He has helped a lot because the ground game hasn’t, posting just 3.3 yards per carry.
Despite the 4-1 record in league play, Troy has been outgained on a per-play basis. Many are probably wondering how teams with an identical record and one that has a better conference record can be a double-digit dog, but that’s how. Troy is +4 in TO margin in Sun Belt games, so that’s part of how they’ve been successful, but it’s hard to find many other reasons.
Old Dominion looked poised for some special things, but they’ve tripped up in conference play. Of course, as you can tell from this line, the yardage metrics are stronger than the record. The Monarchs have averaged seven yards per play overall on the season and are outgaining SBC foes by over 1.1 yards per play.
The great equalizer, though, is and has always been turnovers. Old Dominion has turned the ball over 20 times this season. Colton Joseph has thrown 19 TD passes, but also nine interceptions. The Monarchs are one of the unluckiest teams in the nation in terms of fumble luck, losing 11 of their 18 fumbles. They lead the nation in fumbles lost.
Joseph is also the team’s leading rusher with 620 yards, as the Monarchs have better rushing numbers than Troy, but a mobile QB is a big reason why. But, he’s also put the ball on the ground a few times, something that Troy might need to stay within this number.
I can’t lay a big number with a team that doesn’t protect the football, even if they are the better team and have the better numbers. Troy or nothing for me. The Over could also be in play, given that the Trojans may get some short fields.
Pick: Troy +11
Check out picks from VSiN hosts and guests on this game and all of the Week 12 games on our Pro Picks Page.
