Week 8 College Football: Troy vs. South Alabama

Three Tuesday games? In this economy? That’s precisely what we’ll get to begin Week 8 of the college football season, as we have two Conference USA tilts and a Sun Belt clash on October 15. Each game features a double-digit favorite, but any Tuesday football is better than no Tuesday football and it will be a great opportunity for some kids who don’t normally get the spotlight to be on ESPN or CBS Sports Network.

Troy and South Alabama is the big one, so that’ll be the focal point, with Kennesaw State vs. Middle Tennessee and Louisiana Tech vs. New Mexico State also getting mentions.

 

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For all of this week’s college football insights, refer to our College Football Week 8 Hub.

Troy Trojans at South Alabama Jaguars (-12, 56.5)

7:30 p.m. ET (ESPN2)

It has been a tough season for Troy thus far and they’re in some territory that they haven’t been in a long time. This will be the Trojans second underdog role of double digits in conference play. You have to go back to the 2021 season for the last time that happened, as Coastal Carolina and Appalachian State were the teams in that role. The Chanticleers were actually in the Top 25 when that game happened. 

Chip Lindsey got fired after that season. Jon Sumrall took over and Troy went 23-4 and 14-2 in conference play before he took the Tulane job. This season, Gerad Parker is off to a 1-5 start and the lone win came over FCS Florida A&M. The Trojans are on a little bit of extra rest here and may get back QB Goose Crowder, who has missed a lot of time this season and left the Louisiana Monroe game with an upper body injury.

Collectively, the Troy QB have a 9/1 TD/INT ratio with a 63.6% completion rate, but three different  QB have at least 44 pass attempts. The Trojans have also absorbed 14 sacks. They’ve only rushed for 3.9 yards per carry as a team, though leading rusher Damien Taylor has been solid with 5.9 yards per pop.

South Alabama comes in 2-4 for first-year head coach Major Applewhite, who was elevated from OC to HC after Kane Wommack left to join his pal Kalen DeBoer at Alabama. The Jaguars dropped 87 points on FCS Northwestern State and 48 points the following game on App State, but have scored 84 points total in their four losses. That includes the 18-16 loss to Arkansas State 10 days ago in a game that featured 864 yards of offense and just 34 points.

South Alabama had 6.6 yards per play, but had two long first-half drives snuffed out by turnovers. Gio Lopez has been terrific with a 12/1 TD/INT ratio and over 1,300 passing yards, plus he’s contributed 258 yards on the ground with 6.3 yards per carry. The Jags also have six yards per carry.

It isn’t a surprise that the offense is humming under Applewhite, the former Houston HC and Power Five OC. But, the defense misses Wommack and former DC Corey Batoon. In the five games against FBS foes, the Jags have allowed 6.9 yards per play. In their four losses, they’ve allowed 7.2 YPP.

South Alabama has also recorded just six sacks this season. In fact, each team has just six sacks on the year. South Alabama has five in five FBS games and Troy has four in their five FBS games. With few negative plays expected here, I think we get points in this game. Hopefully Crowder can play, but the other Troy QBs have been effective moving the ball and don’t have to worry about much of a pass rush here.

Pick: Over 56.5

Other Tuesday Games

Kennesaw State Owls at Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders (-10, 51): I took MTSU last week against Louisiana Tech, feeling like the Blue Raiders would play better against an opponent that was closer to their level. They have played the toughest strength of schedule of any Conference USA team, but they got blown out. Kennesaw State is probably the worst team in FBS. Brutal game to handicap here, but I guess I lean MTSU with the game at home against the worst team they’ve played this season.

Louisiana Tech Bulldogs (-10.5, 50.5) at New Mexico State Aggies: Speaking of LA Tech, they’re in Las Cruces here to take on New Mexico State. This feels like a big number for the guys from Ruston, though they did just beat a bad MTSU team by 27. MTSU would be a comfortable favorite over NMSU. The Aggies had a close call against Liberty in a game that they probably should have won and have given up 48, 31, 50, and 54 in four games since. No bet from me here, as the Aggies have a collective 41.8% completion rate with a 5/7 TD/INT ratio and 17 sacks.

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