Tulane vs. Army:
The Army Black Knights were a member of Conference USA from 1998-2004. In that span, they won a total of nine conference games. In their first season as a member of the American Athletic Conference, Army went 8-0 and has a chance at a ninth win Friday night while hosting the AAC Championship Game against Tulane.
The Green Wave saw their playoff hopes get washed away on Thanksgiving with a loss to Memphis, but the goal of being conference champ is still attainable, and maybe even expected, as Tulane is a road favorite heading to West Point.
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Tulane Green Wave (-5.5, 46.5) at Army Black Knights
Friday, 8 p.m. ET
A massive strength of schedule discrepancy between the two teams seems to be the starting point for this handicap and a little bit of a line move towards the Tulane side of things. Per Jeff Sagarin, Tulane’s strength of schedule is 78, the second-strongest in the AAC. It is a metric definitely helped by the non-conference games against Kansas State and Oklahoma.
Army has played one top-30 team and it was Notre Dame. That game ended poorly, as the Black Knights were crushed 49-14. Army does have wins over bowl-eligible teams like East Carolina, UTSA, and North Texas, but those are teams with a combined record of 19-17 and 13-11 in conference play. They have not yet played Tulane, Navy, or Memphis, the three top teams in the AAC aside from themselves.
Tulane shut out Navy 35-0 two games ago, which is absolutely factoring into this line. Navy lost Blake Horvath to injury in that game, but the Midshipmen only had 100 yards on 35 carries, as Tulane played their game right back at them with 48 carries for 220 yards.
The impressive part about Tulane’s performance in that game is that they are just 68th in yards per carry allowed, but they have only allowed 3.72 yards per pop in AAC games, as Kansas State, Oklahoma, and Louisiana found a bit more success on the ground than conference brethren have.
The Green Wave offense ranks in the top 20 in yards per play and they’re butting up against 6.7 yards per play in conference games. Army’s defensive numbers, for the most part, have been solid, but they’ve allowed nearly six yards per play over the last four games. The Notre Dame outlier is a big reason why, especially in the context of a great defensive performance against North Texas, who ranks 12th nationally in YPP, and a solid effort against a UTSA offense on the rise late in the year.
I’m looking at the Under in this one. It’ll be cold for the boys from New Orleans and wind could be a factor based on the really early forecast. Army should be even more deliberate in this game and limit the number of possessions for Tulane. I also think the Black Knight offense finds more rushing success than Navy did and that’ll take some time off the clock.
Pick: Under 46.5
