Tulane vs. Florida:

One of the biggest spreads of the bowl season is in the Union Home Mortgage Gasparilla Bowl between the Tulane Green Wave and Florida Gators. Defections from the Tulane program definitely created a big adjustment in the line very early in the betting process. We haven’t seen much movement back to this point, but that may be changing as we get closer to kickoff.

One key person still with Tulane is head coach Jon Sumrall, who recently signed a contract extension after being courted early on in the coaching carousel by programs that needed a new voice. One person who is not is starting QB Darian Mensah and that’s where this handicap begins.

 

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Gasparilla Bowl: Tulane Green Wave vs. Florida Gators (-13, 49.5)

Friday Dec. 20, 3:30 p.m. ET

Ty Thompson will get the start for Tulane. The Oregon transfer lost the preseason position battle to Mensah and wound up only throwing 11 passes. He had six completions and two went for touchdowns. Where Thompson was highly effective was as a runner. He only had 40 carries, but had 243 yards and six touchdowns. The packages with him included are going to need to expand now that he’s the primary guy.

It seems like OC Joe Craddock will be on the move somewhere, so his preparations for the bowl with a new starting QB have not had his full attention. Thompson is in the portal as well, but this is his big opportunity at least. One positive to fall back on is that RB Makhi Hughes, who has rushed for 2,750 yards in two seasons with the Green Wave, should feature prominently. Thompson will also have Mario Williams, who led the team with 54 catches for 940 yards and TE Alex Bauman, who only had 18 catches, but made them count with seven TD.

The incredible job done by Billy Napier will be a storyline going into this game and likely throughout the broadcast. Per Jeff Sagarin, the Gators played the fifth-toughest schedule in the nation and Napier led his team to a 7-5 mark. The calls to fire Napier were loud coming into the season and even louder with a 3-3 start that included double-digit home losses to Miami and Texas A&M, but credit to Florida for exercising some patience.

As the season went on, the future became the present for the Gators. DJ Lagway took over as the starter and threw for 1,610 yards with an 11/7 TD/INT ratio. Graham Mertz suffered a season-ending injury and Lagway even missed some time as well. Those developments added to the degree of difficulty for Florida, but they got through it.

Lagway didn’t put up eye-popping numbers, but Jadan Baugh, Montrell Johnson Jr., and Ja’Kobi Jackson all had over five yards per carry and combined for 20 rushing touchdowns. Elijhah Badger had over 21 yards per reception. Florida had some explosive plays on offense, but also a lot of inconsistency. 

Tulane was a better defense from a yards per play standpoint, but we’re talking about a difference of more than 70 spots in strength of schedule. Florida was certainly tested more and that is represented in this line, both from the opener and also the line now with all of Tulane’s departures and presumed departures.

I think this line has gotten too high, though. Thompson was at Oregon and was once a very highly-rated recruit. Hughes is a future NFL running back and Williams could latch on somewhere as well. Tulane did look disinterested against Army, but that was after their CFP hopes went up in flames. Lagway isn’t an overly efficient passer and Tulane’s run defense hung in there against Kansas State and Oklahoma.

Pick: Tulane +13

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