Tulane Green Wave vs. Ole Miss Rebels:
In the 6 vs. 11 matchup of the 2025-26 College Football Playoff, the Ole Miss Rebels host the Tulane Green Wave at Vaught-Hemingway Stadium in Oxford, Mississippi. The winner of this game will take on the third-seeded Georgia Bulldogs in the Allstate Sugar Bowl. Keep reading for thoughts on how this game might play out.
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College Football Playoff: Tulane Green Wave vs. Ole Miss Rebels (-17.5, 56.5)
Saturday, December 20th, 3:30 pm ET
On September 20, Ole Miss hosted Tulane and earned a 45-10 victory as a 12-point favorite. Now, the Rebels are set to welcome the Green Wave to Vaught-Hemingway Stadium for the second time this year. However, this time the stakes are way higher. The winner of this game will advance to the quarterfinals of the College Football Playoff, meaning a high-leverage date with Georgia on January 1.
While these rosters might look the same as they did in the first meeting between these teams, a lot has changed for both groups. Tulane head coach Jon Sumrall is still serving as the leader of the Green Wave, but he did take the coaching job with the Florida Gators. Will Hall, who is currently Tulane’s passing game coordinator and receivers coach, will take over the program once the team’s postseason run is over. However, the whole thing does set up an awkward situation where Sumrall might be viewed as a guy with one foot out the door. That’s the exact situation Ole Miss hoped to avoid with its wild coaching scenario, which saw Lane Kiffin bounce for the LSU Tigers job. Kiffin claims he wanted to stay on with the Rebels and finish what he started, but Ole Miss AD Keith Carter didn’t want that. And whether or not that’s the 100% truth, Kiffin won’t be the one leading this talented Rebels team on the field. That’ll be Pete Golding, who was Ole Miss’ defensive coordinator before being tabbed as the program’s next head coach. Carter referred to Golding as a “leader of men” before announcing the move to the Rebels players, and Ole Miss leadership seems to believe that his attitude and commitment will be exactly what this team needs to keep things moving in the right direction.
Ole Miss will have Charlie Weis Jr., who is going with Kiffin to LSU, operating as the offensive coordinator during the College Football Playoff. That’s a pretty big positive for this team, as it means there’s some continuity in place for a unit that is 17th in the nation in Adjusted EPA per play (0.09). However, it’s at least somewhat concerning that Golding is now running the entire operation. For as much as Carter might be impressed with Golding’s personality and professionalism, this is a Rebels team that is tied for 58th in Adjusted EPA per play allowed (-0.03). So, the leader of the weakest unit on the team is now running the show, which feels a little uninspiring as far as the long-term picture goes.
Fortunately, Ole Miss is playing a team that it absolutely beat down earlier in the year. Not only did the Rebels win by 35 when they faced the Green Wave earlier in the year, but they also outgained them 548 to 282 in total yards. And Tulane had absolutely no answer for Trinidad Chambliss, who threw for 307 yards with two touchdowns and added another 112 yards on the ground. On top of that, Golding’s defense played one of its best games of the year against this Green Wave team, holding Jake Retzlaff, a talented dual-threat quarterback in his own right, to 56 passing yards on 5 of 17 passing.
Will Tulane find a way to learn from the last game? It’s possible. Sumrall is actually 5-0 straight-up and 4-1 against the spread when looking for revenge against an opponent. However, the one non-cover came at Tulane, so the others came when he was with Troy. That means he was good at making adjustments and getting his team ready for rematches with lesser competition. It’s not exactly clear that’ll translate to an SEC opponent. Remember: “It just means more.”
The numbers do, however, look somewhat good for a better Tulane performance in this second meeting. The Rebels are outside the top-75 in early-down EPA (-0.002) on defense this season. Meanwhile, the Green Wave have been pretty good when it comes to early-down EPA (0.046). That’s somewhere Tulane might be able to make things a little more interesting than in the first matchup. I also think Retzlaff will be a lot sharper here. Tulane’s Dropback EPA per play (0.125) over the course of the entire season backs that up. Also, having film on Chambliss should help the Green Wave defense quite a bit. The first time Chambliss shredded this defense, he was essentially playing in only his second game at the FBS level. There’s now a lot more for opponents to dive into, and we did see some weaker outings from Chambliss later in the season.
This also just feels like a ton of points in a playoff game. Perhaps that’s warranted given the difference in talent, plus the 35-point blowout the first time around. However, when the adrenaline and nerves kick in here, it’s a little hard to envision Tulane losing by three touchdowns or more. Also, say what you want about Kiffin, but Ole Miss lost a bright football mind and somebody that took this program to heights never seen before. His presence on the sideline will be missed.
Lean: Tulane +17.5 (-110)
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