College Football Best Bets:

The gambling gods giveth, and the gambling taketh away. We’re reminded of that old adage here in the Tuley’s Takes home office after starting the college football season at 5-2 ATS and then going 1-3 ATS last Saturday to drop to 6-5 ATS (54.5%), That’s still profitable at +0.5 units laying your standard -110, but not where we want to be for our college football best bets.

For the record, our lone winner in CFB Week 3 was Toledo (+16.5) of the MAC going to the SEC’s Mississippi State and coming away with a 41-17 rout (Holy Toledo, Batman!), laughing all the way to the bank as the school collected a $1.2 million guarantee (money paid by a bigger school to lure a smaller school for a hoped-for easy home win). But as we’ve seen, paying a guarantee doesn’t guarantee a win, just like when my alma mater, Northern Illinois, picked up a $1.4 million check from No. 5 Notre Dame two Saturdays ago and then upset the Irish 16-14 as 28-point underdogs and +2000 on the money line. (Personal note: I’ll be at NIU’s next game since that shocker on Saturday against Buffalo as I’m attending a reunion for my college newspaper, The Northern Star, on Friday night and the game on Saturday. To keep this column on point (spreads) – and write off part of the trip as a business expense LOL – the Huskies are 14-point home favorites.)

 

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Anyway, Toledo’s rout was quite impressive as 16.5-point dogs, but unfortunately my three losses were just as convincing: Hawai’i (+4.5) lost 31-13 at Sam Houston State, UCLA (+3) was blown out 42-13 by Indiana and Air Force (+16.5) was grounded 31-3 by Baylor.

But enough looking back. Hopefully we have a better overall record with these dogs on Saturday.

Baylor (+2) at Colorado

Saturday, 8:00 p.m. ET (FOX)

As alluded to above, I tried fading Baylor last week with Air Force and got burned. But the silver lining is I earned a new respect for what this Baylor team is all about. In retrospect, I should have been more impressed with the Bears only losing 23-12 to Utah (now ranked No. 12 by AP and No. 12 in the Coaches Poll). Besides, I’m convinced that the only reason Colorado is a short home favorite here is because the books know the Buffaloes are a very public team with coach Deion “Prime Time” Sanders. I was as big of a fan of him as a player, but during his coaching stint at Colorado his offense has beaten up on weaker opponents and not done as well against quality competition (we saw that all last year, and now this season the Buffaloes barely beat North Dakota State 31-26, got manhandled by Nebraska 28-10 before beating Colorado State 28-9). Despite being perhaps the best defensive back of all-time, Sanders’ focus at Colorado has been on the offense and his son, QB Shedeur Sanders, while the defense is subpar and should allow Baylor to stay in this game. I’m calling for the minor upset.’

College Football Best Bet: Baylor +2

UTEP +9 at Colorado State

Saturday, 5:00 p.m. ET (TRUTV)

OK, we know UTEP is pretty bad at 0-3 with losses to Nebraska (no shame there), Liberty and Southern Utah (which is a nice school that both my older kids visited before going elsewhere, but not a football powerhouse). However, this is a play against Colorado State, which we already mentioned lost to Colorado last week. Just like with UTEP vs. Nebraska, there’s no shame there; however, we mentioned how Colorado’s defense is subpar, yet CSU only managed nine points in that loss and I don’t see the Rams capable of blowing out even a mediocre team like UTEP. This looks like a one-score game from start to finish so we gotta take the points.

College Football Best Bet: UTEP +9

James Madison +10.5 at North Carolina

Saturday, 12:00 p.m. ET (ACCN)

Longtime readers know I certainly love finding smaller schools that are live dogs against big schools (see Toledo above). I’m sure there are many college football bettors that are laying the points with the Tar Heels just because they assume that’s the better program, and UNC is among “Others receiving votes” in the polls after its 3-0 start. However, what I see in that 10.5-point spread is that the oddsmakers know this isn’t as much of a mismatch as a lot of people assume. They’re making chalk bettors lay double digits, but not setting too high or they know they’ll get pounded by sharp bettors. James Madison is also undefeated at 2-0 and has a good enough defense to keep this close. Another reason I’m willing to fade the Tar Heels is they have a lot of injuries on offense.

College Football Best Bet: James Madison +10.5

For more College Football Week 4 predictions, visit the College Football Week 4 Hub at VSiN.com.

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