Tuley’s Takes – College Football Bowl Game and CFP Quarterfinals Best Bets, Picks and Predictions:
Happy holidays to you and your family from the Tuley’s Takes home office.
We hope you’re also enjoying the bowl season as well as the College Football Playoff. We’ve had a roller-coaster ride, going 1-1-1 ATS in last Monday’s “takes” column as I won on Toledo +8 in a 27-22 loss to Louisville in last Tuesday’s Boca Raton Bowl, but then on Saturday with UConn +9.5 in a 41-16 loss to Army in the Fenway Bowl and then pushed on LSU +3 in a 38-35 loss to Houston in the Texas Bowl (though I consider that a loss as most readers probably weren’t able to grab +3 earlier in the holiday week and it closed LSU +1).
Anyway, our official published record is 3-2-1 ATS this bowl season, but we definitely want to make up for the LSU pick with this week’s bowl offerings, which also include the CFB quarterfinals on Wednesday and Thursday, New Year’s Eve and New Year’s Day.
For those who like following my betting recaps on Twitter/X at @ViewFromVegas, favorites are 16-8 SU and 14-10 ATS (58.3%) through Monday’s Birmingham Bowl with Georgia Southern covering in a 29-10 win over Appalachian State after closing as a 10-point favorite while Unders continue to dominate as they got back to 66.7%t at 16-8 by staying way Under the betting total of 58 points.
Let’s get to my top “dog or pass” plays for this week. I’ll start by saying that I was leaning toward taking Illinois vs. Tennessee in Tuesday’s Music City Bowl, but at +3, the line is too short for me. I’m leery of taking Big Ten teams vs. the SEC, as they usually don’t fare well, but I’m not afraid of fading that trend if the price is right (spoiler alert: see below). Also, VSiN subscribers hopefully remember my contribution to the Bowl Betting Guide, where I recommended a “rollover money-line parlay” on Indiana to win the CFB Playoff. For our purposes here, I won’t be picking that game below (as I couldn’t make a case for the dog, Alabama). It won’t be included in my bowl-picking record ATS. Still, the wager would start with a money-line bet on Indiana in the Rose Bowl and then (hopefully) and then roll over all the winnings in the semifinals and championship game.
And here’s hoping you and your family have a Happy and profitable New Year.
#23 Iowa (+5.5) vs. #14 Vanderbilt
Reliaquest Bowl
Wednesday, Dec. 31
Tuley’s Take: So, here’s the Big Ten vs. SEC matchup I alluded to above. Vanderbilt is favored and (as expected as bettors love to bet SEC teams against any other conference) getting 52% of the bet and 56% of the handle at DraftKings, according to our VSiN Betting Splits Page? as of Monday afternoon, and we expect that to rise before Wednesday’s noon ET kickoff. The public is also lining up to bet Heisman runner-up Diego Pavia (who I’ve been high on since his days at lowly New Mexico State) as he’s playing, but for years there was a winning trend to fade Heisman-winners in bowl games as the opposing team gets sick of hearing how great they are, so you get a really motivated defense (and Iowa had a good one).
Pavia didn’t win the Heisman, but he certainly was outspoken about how he should have, and that’s enough bulletin-board material for me. I’m more concerned with Iowa being able to run like they usually like to do to control the tempo of the game against the Vandy D, but Hawkeye coach Kirk Ferentz is good in bowls overall (and 6-2 ATS in December bowl) while also 4-1 ATS when an underdog of more than a field goal against SEC teams, so he’ll have them ready. As for what the teams have done this season, while Vanderbilt has the better record at 10-2, their best wins are against Missouri, LSU and Tennessee, and didn’t have to face Georgia, Mississippi or Oklahoma. And while Iowa was only 8-4, they lost narrow games to the likes of CFB Playoff teams Indiana and Oregon, as well as high-scooring USC. In fact, the Hawkeyes didn’t lose by more than this spread at any time this season (two 5-point losses to Indiana and USC were the worst points-wise).
CFB Bowl Best Bet: Iowa +5.5
#10 Miami (FL). (+9.5) vs. #2 Ohio State
Cotton Bowl/CFB Playoff quarterfinal
Wednesday, Dec. 31
Tuley’s Take: On New Year’s Eve, we get the first of our four CFB Playoff quarterfinals with #2 Ohio State favored against #10 Miami-Fla. Regular readers will remember I gave out Miami (FL) as a 3.5-point road underdog at Texas A&M in the VSiN Bowl Betting Guide and in my weekly “takes” column two weeks ago, and the Hurricanes pulled the 10-3 outright upset in a defensive battle. Even though that was at A&M’s vaunted home field at College Station and this is a neutral-site game at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas, this is certainly a tougher test for Miami, but we’re also getting more than a touchdown this time. The Hurricanes’ defense should be able to step up again, and I’m expecting the offense to fare better.
As I wrote in the first-round preview, I like Miami QB Carson Beck’s big-game experience from playing at Georgia, plus multi-purpose freshman Malachi Toney should benefit from his first playoff game, in which he bounced back from a fumble to score the winning TD. Regular readers will also recognize this as a classic bet-against/“anti-swagger” spot for Ohio State as the Buckeyes won their first 12 games this season (16 straight dating back to last season) before losing 13-10 to Indiana in the Big Ten Championship Game), though I’m aware they lost their regular-season finale last year to Michigan before making their run to the national title.
CFB Bowl Best Bet: Miami (FL) +9.5
#4 Texas Tech (+2.5) vs. #5 Oregon
Orange Bowl/CFB Playoff quarterfinal
Thursday, Jan. 1
Tuley’s Take: This is an interesting CFB Playoff matchup as #5 Oregon is a short favorite over #4 Texas Tech, which earned the final first-round bye. The Red Raiders are red-hot with a six-game winning streak, including a 34-7 blowout of BYU in the Big 12 Championship Game. The only downside I see for Tech is they’ve had nearly four weeks since their last game. While Texas Tech was 12-1 with its only loss to Arizona State when the Red Raiders were without starting QB Behren Morton, their strength of schedule (No. 68 by Jeff Sagarin) leaves something to be desired, as Oregon faced the No. 17 schedule and still did enough in the shadow of Ohio State and Indiana in the Big Ten to make the playoff.
Oregon routed James Madison 51-34 in the first round, though the Ducks gave up the backdoor cover. I’m not one to be swayed by the rankings of the CFB Playoff Committee, but I still see Texas Tech as the better overall team that should be favored with Morton spreading the ball around to four targets who topped 550 receiving yards and a defense that can contain Oregon QB Dante Moore and Company. I’ll take the short points (hopefully the public bets it to a full field goal by gametime).
CFB Bowl Best Bet: Texas Tech +2.5 or better
For more college football bowl game best bets and analysis, visit the College Football Bowl Game hub, exclusively on VSiN.
