Tuley’s Takes – College Football Bowl Game and CFP Best Bets, Picks and Predictions:
Happy holidays to everyone from the Tuley’s Takes home office, and we hope you’re all enjoying the bowl season and start of the College Football Playoff.
Through Monday’s Potato Bowl, favorites are 5-3 straight up and against the spread (with Unders the best bet so far at 6-2, though they split 2-2 in the four first-round games of the CFB Playoff); however, we’re fared well by being selective with our “dog or pass” plays as we went 2-1 ATS last week.
We started with a nice win on Jacksonville State +2 in these weekly “takes” columns on the bowl season, though they closed as 3-point favorites but covered all numbers in a 17-13 win over Troy in the Salute to Veterans Bowl last Tuesday. We lost badly with Kennesaw State +3.5 in a 41-6 ass-kicking by Western Michigan in last Friday’s Myrtle Beach Bowl, but then bounced back with our Best Bet of the week (we also gave it out early in the VSiN Bowl Betting Guide) as Miami (FL) +3.5 outlasted Texas A&M 10-3 in a defensive battle in a CFB Playoff first-round game as a road underdog.
But enough looking back. Let’s tackle this week’s slate of games as we’re posting these columns on Monday each week for the games of Tuesday through the following Monday.
Toledo (+8) vs. Louisville
Boca Raton Bowl
Tuesday, Dec. 23
Tuley’s Take: My one loss last week was in fading Western Michigan of the MAC, so that certainly made me take a second look, as I’ve felt all year that the MAC was down (a natural circumstance with the Power 5 teams continuing to poach the top players more and more). Toledo was the preseason favorite to win the conference but went only 8-4 (6-2 in the MAC and fell short of the title game). That was a disappointing season by Toledo’s standards, but it wasn’t the defense’s fault as it led the nation by allowing just 3.91 yards per play. They are also losing at least four starters to the transfer portal, which explains why this line has risen from 7 to 8 over the weekend, with Louisville QB Miller Moss expected to play. But I still think this line is too high and will take as many points as they give us before gametime. I suspect bettors are also betting against Toledo not having starting QB Hunter Gleason, but freshman Kalieb Osborne was 5-for-7 for 108 yards and a TD in the season finale against Central Michigan when they outscored them 21-0 in the second half, so I’m not sure there’s going to be a dropoff.
CFB Bowl Best Bet: Toledo +8
UConn (+9,5) vs. Army
Fenway Bowl
Saturday, Dec. 27
Tuley’s Take: UConn definitely had the better season at 9-3 and averaged 36.9 points per game and 300.5 yards per game. Now, UConn is going to be playing without starting QB Joe Fagnano and star WR Skyler Bell (both choosing to play instead in the East-West Shrine Game in January to try and boost their draft prospects) as well as several others opting out for the transfer portal while Army is more likely to have players leave for military service, so the Black Knights will be at full strength. However, I still don’t think this line should be nearly at double digits in favor of a team with such a methodical offense. Besides, longtime readers of my columns know I love “system offense,” where we often see the coach able to just plug in a new QB and the offense hardly misses a beat. In addition, Army pretty much played its bowl game in the annual Army-Navy rivalry, which they lost 17-16 on a late TD. This is just too many points for a 6-6 team to lay that has only won by more than this spread two times against UAB and Charlotte (and both were back in early October).
CFB Bowl Best Bet: UConn +9.5
LSU (+3) vs. Houston
Texas Bowl
Saturday, Dec. 27
Tuley’s Take: This is an interesting handicap as Houston had the better season at 9-3 while LSU was only 7-5 (though in the tougher SEC), which led to coach Brian Kelly being fired on Oct. 26 and the much-covered luring of Lane Kiffin away from Ole Miss. There are also a lot of moving parts in which LSU players are sticking around (or auditioning to stay). Oddsmakers have made Houston the short favorite, but I’m not so sure that’s the right side, as it’s pretty clear that LSU still has the better overall talent despite the disappointing season. I will say I like this play the least of my three play this week, though I like it much better than the other games I considered (Hawaii, which was an attractive dog but had been bet to favoritism vs. Cal in Christmas Eve’s Hawaii Bowl), Penn State (line too short at +3 vs. Clemson in the Pinstripe Bowl on Saturday) and Georgia Tech (vs. BYU in the Pot-Tarts Bowl on Saturday).
CFB Bowl Best Bet: LSU +3
For more college football bowl game best bets and analysis, visit the College Football Bowl Game hub, exclusively on VSiN.
