Tuley’s Takes – College Football Conference Championship Best Bets, Picks and Predictions:
We hope you had a happy Thanksgiving from the Tuley’s Takes home office. While we were thankful the NFL treated us well last weekend, we went a disappointing 1-3 ATS last Saturday with our college football takes with the lone win on Vanderbilt +3 in a 45-24 outright upset at Tennessee but losses on Florida State +1 in a 41-20 loss vs. Florida, Virginia Tech +8.5 in a 27-7 loss at Virginia and Auburn +6 in a 27-20 loss at Alabama (we hope most of you were able to salvage a push with +7 on gameday).
That wrapped up a subpar 26-32 ATS record during the regular season, but Championship Week starts the so-called “second season” leading into the bowl and the College Football Playoffs.
Here are my dog-or-pass ATS plays, plus a total, for Friday and Saturday.
UNLV (+5) vs. Boise State
Mountain West
Friday, 8 p.m. ET
Tuley’s Take: UNLV, known as mostly a basketball school over the years, has continued to improve, especially this year under coach Dan Mullen, with a 10-win season. They are in their third straight Mountain West title game, with the last two being losses to Boise State, even though it’s a de facto home game for UNLV in Allegiant Stadium. The Broncos have been the best “mid-major” football program on the West Coast for years – like Gonzaga in basketball – and only went 8-4 this season after opening the season ranked No. 25 and is somehow favored. OK, I get it as the Broncos beat the Rebels 56-31 back on Oct. 18 for only one of their two losses, but I’ll take UNLV to finally take that next step. Even though the first meeting was a shootout with 87 points, I also like Under 58 with both teams relying on the ground game, and hopefully the defenses step up.
College Football Best Bet: UNLV +5 and Under 58
Miami (OH) (+2) vs. Western Michigan
MAC
Saturday, Noon ET
Tuley’s Take: As an alumnus of Northern Illinois, when I covered the Huskies for The Northern Star student newspaper in 1986 and 1987 (including my first trip to Vegas when NIU beat UNLV and Ickey Woods – yes, that Ickey Woods – on Thanksgiving Weekend 1987 on ESPN), I love the MAC Championship being played in Detroit at noon ET Saturday. Miami won the regular-season meeting 26-17 back on Oct. 25 and regular readers know I’m not a big fan of “revenge” as I prefer to take the team that proved it could win head-to-head earlier in the same season, especially when getting points in the rematch (besides, Western Michigan is 3-10 ATS with double revenge, so it’s not like it’s a motivating factor for the Broncos). Western Michigan closed the regular season with four straight wins to make the title game, so I guess that’s why they’re favored, but Miami is peaking at the right time, too. After the RedHawks lost their next two games after beating WMI, they’ve won their last two with an improved offense scoring 37 and 45 points with redshirt freshman QB Thomas Gotkowski. I don’t see the Broncos’ running game keeping up.
College Football Best Bet: Miami (OH) +2
#2 Indiana (+4.5) #1 Ohio State
Big Ten
Saturday, 8 p.m. ET
Tuley’s Take: These two undefeated teams have been on a collision course all season and finally meet in the Big Ten Championship Game in Indianapolis with the winner getting the No. 1 seed in the CFB Playoff. While both teams obviously want to be conference champions, this is one of those situations where both teams are guaranteed to be in the playoff, with the ultimate goal to win the national title.
These teams are pretty equal, with Indiana having the better offense (averaging 44.3 points per game) while Ohio State has the better defense (allowing just 7.8 points per game), so we like the underdog Hoosiers with the points in a game that we feel should be closer to pick ’em, with Indiana.
With the Buckeyes also being here much more often, we can’t escape the feeling that the conference title means more to the Hoosiers. Marc Lawence of playbooksports.com adds a trend to support that as he says defending national champs are 10-4 SU in conference championship games the next year but just 6-8 ATS, plus only 4-3 SU and 1-6 ATS when facing a team that has won 10 or more games like Indiana. We’re calling for an outright upset (the money line is around +170 for those interested), but the points are a bonus just in case.
College Football Best Bet: Indiana +4.5
For more college football conference championship best bets and analysis, visit the College Football Conference Championship hub, exclusively on VSiN.
