Tuley’s Takes – College Football Playoff Final Best Bets, Picks and Predictions:
We’re excited in the Tuley’s Takes home office for the CFB Playoff Championship between #1 Indiana and #10 Miami-Fla. on Monday night at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami.
It’s being held at the Hurricanes’ home stadium, but it’s also a homecoming for Indiana’s Heisman Trophy-winning QB Fernando Mendoza. We don’t see Miami having too much of a home-field advantage, especially if Indiana fans travel well again, as we saw them fill up an estimated 75-80% of the Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta for the Hoosiers’ semifinal victory over Oregon.
Before getting to my “take” on the game, I should mention that we went 0-2 in the semifinal round as my Best Bets were Ole Miss +3.5 (which failed to cover by a half-point in the Rebels’ 31-27 loss after looking like the right side most of the game including leading twice in the fourth quarter) and Oregon-Indiana Under 47 (which was never the right side as Indiana got a pick 6 on the first play from scrimmage and then exceeded the total by itself in a 56-22 rout).
That dropped our bowl record to 5-5-1 ATS overall, losing the vig. The good news for our bowl bankroll is we gave out Indiana to win the title in the VSiN Bowl Betting Guide, recommending a locked-in future (which we got at +330 at Circa) as well as a rollover moneyline parlay, which usually pays better. That’s not going to be the case this time, as the rollover is going to pay less than 2-1. The individual game moneylines have been higher than expected. For instance, for Monday’s title game, Indiana is -350 on the moneyline against #10 Miami, while it would have been a lot closer to pick ’em if getting a rematch against #2 Ohio State or #3 Georgia if they had advanced as seeded.
For those who follow my betting recaps at @ViewFromVegas on Twitter/X, CFB Playoff favorites and underdogs have split 5-5 SU so far, with dogs leading 6-4 ATS. Over/Unders have split 5-5 after both semifinals went Over their totals.
But enough looking back. Let’s take a look at Monday’s title game and the best way to bet it.
#10 Miami (FL) vs. #1 Indiana (-8.5, 47)
CFB Playoff Championship Game
Monday, January 19
Tuley’s Take: Regular readers know I use my “dog or pass” approach to look at every game to determine if I’m getting enough points with the underdog or if I need to pass. I have to admit that with my future-book bet on Indiana, it’s hard to be objective, as I fully expect the Hoosiers to complete their march to the title that I felt they would make even if the path hadn’t been made easier with the upsets on the other side of the bracket.
I’m not often in this position with a favorite, so the natural inclination is to hedge my future position with a bet on the ‘Canes.
When in this position, instead of taking the dog on the moneyline, I prefer to take the points not only to hedge but also to have a shot at hitting the middle (in this case, taking Miami +8.5 to give myself a chance to add the hedge profits while still winning the original bet). However, writing these columns to help readers find the best way to bet the game, I don’t feel that’s enough of a reason to recommend that play (unless they also bet the Indiana future).
I mean, I was high on the Hurricanes plus the points in their first two playoff upsets of Texas A&M and Ohio State, but then didn’t think Carson Beck & Co. were good enough to warrant being favored over #6 Ole Miss in the semis. From that standpoint, and considering the fact Indiana has routed Alabama 38-3 and Oregon (56-22, and it wasn’t as close as the final score indicates) and is better on both offense and defense in just about every category, I feel the line is too short at anything under double digits and would be easily invoking the “pass” part of “dog or pass” if I didn’t have the Indiana ticket.
All things considered, I believe the best bet for this game would be Under 47 points, though I do also have reservations about that wager if Mendoza and the offense continue to be unstoppable. And we’re definitely cheering against any defensive scores. If we can get that, Miami’s defense should be able to offer some resistance while the offense tries to play keepaway with long drives of its own to shorten the game and keep it relatively low-scoring. Regardless, I don’t expect the Hurricanes’ offense to do enough to turn this into a shootout, so we’re counting on a methodical win by Indiana somewhere in the 24-16 range (so you can see where I’m thinking the Under is more likely to cash as opposed to Miami +8.5).
CFP National Championship Best Bet: Under 47 and lean to Miami +8.5
For more CFP National Championship best bets and analysis, visit the CFP National Championship hub, exclusively on VSiN.
