Tuley’s Takes – College Football Playoff Semifinals Best Bets, Picks and Predictions:
Happy New Year to you and your family from the Tuley’s Takes home office.
We closed out 2025 on a winning note in these CFB bowl/playoff columns with New Year’s Eve wins last Wednesday on Iowa +5.5 in the Hawkeyes’ 34-27 outright upset of Vanderbilt in the ReliaQuest Bowl and Miami-Fla. +9.5 in the Hurricanes’ 24-14 outright upset of Ohio State in the Cotton Bowl/CFB Playoff quarterfinal (we love when we get a patent-pending “Tuley Cover,” which is when an underdog not only covers and pulls the outright upset but wins by more points than there were getting – and we got it twice in the same day!).
Unfortunately, we lost our first play of the New Year last Thursday with Texas Tech +2.5 in an embarrassing 23-0 loss to Oregon in the Orange Bowl/CFB Playoff quarterfinal, but we’re still 5-3-1 ATS (62.5%) so far in these CFB postseason columns.
For those who follow my betting recaps at @ViewFromVegas on Twitter/X, favorites finished the bowl games 23-12 SU and 19-16 ATS (54.4%), but the CFB Playoff games were better to underdog players like yours truly as dogs actually led 5-3 SU and were also 6-2 ATS (75%). As for totals, Unders dominated 21-14 (60%) in the regular bowls and were also 5-3 (62.5%) in the first two rounds of the CFB Playoff.
But enough looking back. Let’s put everything we’ve learned to use in Thursday and Friday’s CFB Playoff semifinals.
#6 Ole Miss (+3.5, 52) vs. #10 Miami (FL)
CFP Semifinal/Fiesta Bowl
Thursday, Jan. 8
Tuley’s Take: If you didn’t hear what former coach Nick Saban said before the CFB Playoff started, you’ve certainly heard it by now. Saban went on ESPN and said, “If they get in this playoff, they’re going to be the most dangerous team that anybody has to play because of the talent level they have.” He’s always known how to spot talent and has proven prophetic with Miami (FL) upsetting #7 Texas A&M and then #2 Ohio State in the first two rounds. I thought the same thing and was thrilled to get them as very live underdogs in both games.
That long intro is to say that I’ve been as high on Miami as anyone, but even I don’t think they should be favored over #6 Mississippi. The Rebels who stayed after carpetbagging coach Lane Kiffin left for greener ($$$) pastures at LSU have looked impressive in routing Tulane 41-10 in the first round and then upsetting #3 Georgia 39-34 in the quarterfinals.
This line opened at Miami -2.5 on New Year’s Day and was even bet up to -3 by the time I went on VSiN’s “Cashing Out Show” with Dustin Swedelson, and I gave out Ole Miss, whose situation I likened to the Michigan men’s basketball team in 1989. Head coach Bill Frieder left for Arizona State after the regular season and athletic director Bo Schembechler said, “A Michigan man will coach Michigan,” and hired interim coach Steve Fisher, who led the Wolverines to the national title with Frieder’s players.
I’ve made a big deal of Miami QB Carson Beck’s experience (including his prior stint at Georgia). Still, Ole Miss QB Trinidad Chambliss has been brilliant all season and stepped up even more with 362 yards passing and two TDs in the upset of Georgia. I’ll gladly take him over Beck, especially with the added points with the line going to 3.5 at several books as of Tuesday.
College Football Playoff Semifinal Best Bet: Ole Miss +3.5
#5 Oregon vs. #1 Indiana (-3.5, 47)
CFP Semifinal/Peach Bowl
Friday, Jan. 9
Tuley’s Take: In the quarterfinals, I thought Texas Tech was better than Oregon and grabbed the short points. Unfortunately, the Red Raiders ended up being a public dog (while I usually prefer to be contrarian with my “dog or pass” plays) and were actually bet to favoritism by gameday. I was hoping we were on the right side, but obviously not as Oregon rolled to the 23-0 shutout.
Regular VSiN readers know I recommend an Indiana future bet in the VSiN Bowl Betting Guide after the CFB Playoff bracket was set and got +330 at Circa (and also recommended a money-line rollover parlay from game to game, though with Ohio State and Georgia being eliminated, that might not pay more than the fixed-out futures this time).
Anyway, I always look to the dog first to see if I feel I’m getting enough points. Again, when I was on “Cashing Out” with Swedelson on Jan. 1, I told him I felt this line was too short at Indiana -4, mostly due to the fact Indiana beat Oregon 30-20 in their first meeting back on Oct. 11, and that was with Oregon having home-field advantage, which they won’t have in Atlanta.
With the way Indiana has stayed undefeated and beat Ohio State for the Big Ten Championship and rolled over Alabama in the quarterfinals, I was certainly hoping this line would be much higher.
Instead, I’m going to bet on the Under. I know the 50 points scored in the first meeting is more than the current total of 47 points, but I’m expecting a lower-scoring game this time around, and not just because I lean toward Unders in playoff games in all sports. While Indiana has a high-flying offense, the defense has been just as impressive in the 13-10 win over Ohio State in the Big Ten title game and 38-3 rout of Alabama. In addition to shutting out Texas Tech last week, the Oregon defense can be excused for giving up 34 points to James Madison in the first round, as the Ducks led 34-6 at halftime and were coasting in the second half and playing backups.
This looks very much like a 24-17 Indiana win, which works for our purposes here (and keeps our Indiana futures alive).
College Football Playoff Semifinal Best Bet: Under 47
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