Tuley’s Takes on College Football Week 7

67
 

I hate being right sometimes.

 

Last week in my weekly college “takes” column, I wrote “There’s an old saying in the sportsbooks here in Las Vegas that it’s hard for bettors to be hot in both college and pro football. Win on Saturday/lose on Sunday . . . and vice versa.” That was after going 3-1 ATS the weekend before after starting 6-8-1 ATS in college. Meanwhile, after a 12-8 ATS start in the NFL, I suffered my first losing week of the season at 2-3 ATS in Week 4.

Fast forward to last Saturday, and I went 3-0-1 ATS with my college plays in this column as Oklahoma beat Texas 34-30 as a 6-point underdog, Old Dominion upset Southern Mississippi 17-13 as a 1.5-point dog, and Rutgers covered for us as 13-point dogs in a 24-11 loss to Wisconsin. The push was in Tulsa’s 20-17 loss to Florida Atlantic as 3-point dogs.

That improved our CFB record here to 12-9-1 ATS (57.1%).

See our “Tuley’s Takes” NFL piece (14-11-1 ATS, 56%) for this weekend’s Best Bets and pool play percentages.

Enough with the record-keeping. Let’s get to Saturday’s plays for CFB Week 7 (Week 8 if you count Week 0).

College Football Betting Splits | College Football Odds

Iowa State +5 at Cincinnati

Most people are saying that Cincinnati is the better team, so we aren’t surprised to see the Bearcats favored. However, I don’t think this should be more than a field goal and definitely closer to pick ’em. I won’t go as far as to say the wrong team is favored, but we could make the case on the fact Cincinnati is 0-2 in its Big 12 debut season while Iowa State is 2-1 and actually in the conference chase (both teams losing as expected to Oklahoma). The Cyclones are also playing much better than they were earlier in the season when they lost to Iowa and Ohio and are coming off a 27-14 win vs. TCU.

Oregon +3 at Washington

Both teams are 5-0 with Washington ranked No. 7 and Oregon at No. 8, so this is a huge matchup, especially in the Pac-12. This is a coin-flip of a game, but I actually give the edge to Oregon as the teams both have high-powered offenses with Washington averaging 569.4 yards per game compared to Oregon’s 557.8 YPG, but Oregon only allows 255.6 yards per game while Washington gives up 365. That’s quite a difference — and it’s not like Washington has faced a much tougher schedule — so the Ducks’ D should be able to get an extra stop. Also, Washington’s Michael Penix Jr. is the Heisman betting favorite; I don’t know if the Ducks know that or if it gives them an added incentive, but it couldn’t hurt.

USC +3 at Notre Dame

I don’t know what I’m missing here with Notre Dame being favored, except for supposed home-field advantage. But Touchdown Jesus didn’t help in the last home game, a 17-14 loss to Ohio State. The Irish also lost 33-20 last week at Louisville. Meanwhile, the Trojans roll on and should be favored here. My only concern is that a lot of people seem to feel the same way as 59% of the money at DraftKings is on USC and several books have gone to 2.5, so bet ASAP if you’re with me.

UAB +9.5 at Texas-San Antonio

If I don’t include an underdog pick from an under-the-radar game, I’ll lose my reputation, so let’s look at this American Athletic Conference matchup. Both teams have losing records as UAB is 2-4 and UTSA is 2-3, so not many are looking to bet this game. However, I believe we have the betting edge with UAB getting more than a touchdown. UAB did have a four-game losing streak but snapped it last Saturday with a 56-35 win vs. South Florida and has the much better offense here. I certainly expect the Blazers to be in this game the whole way (and will also have a little on the moneyline at +300), but even if they fall behind the back door should be open.