There’s an old saying in the sportsbooks here in Las Vegas that it’s hard for bettors to be hot in both college and pro football. Win on Saturday/lose on Sunday . . . and vice versa.
It’s Week 8 already (Week 9 if counting Week 0)? I can’t believe we’re more than halfway through the regular season. Time flies when you’re having fun!
We took a step back last Saturday as we went 1-2-1 ATS with a win on Iowa State +5 in the Cyclones’ 30-10 outright upset of Cincinnati, but then lost with USC +3 at Notre Dame and UAB +9.5 at San Antonio while pushing on Oregon +3 vs. Washington.
Our record still stands at a respectable 13-11-2 ATS (54.2%), so let’s get to this Saturday’s card.
Our only win last Saturday was by fading Cincinnati, and we’re happy to do it again as the Bearcats haven’t done anything (and, in fact, have regressed) to show why they should be favored by more than a field goal. Granted, Baylor has been underperforming as well, but I hope the extra week of preparation will have the Bears poised to pull the upset or cover the short number.
Alabama has won five straight since its loss to Texas, but the Crimson Tide is still not rolling like we’re used to seeing and is ranked just No. 86 in total offense. Alabama’s defense is tough, allowing just 16 points per game, but Tennessee also boasted a Top 20 defense that can contain Alabama’s down offense. The line is just too high, and we’ll take the generous points.
First, I’m not just picking this because USC let me down big-time last Saturday in the 48-20 loss at Notre Dame. In the VSiN College Football Betting Guide (still a great resource as we move through the season), Utah was my Best Bet to win the Pac-12 and a long-shot play to win the CFB Playoff. Despite an earlier loss, the Utes (“Did you say youts?” – My Cousin Vinny reference) can still get back in the conference race with an upset here. Besides, USC is in a classic “anti-swagger” spot after having its season-opening six-game winning streak snapped (Marc Lawrence of playbook.com used to call it the “bubble-burst theory”). Utah has also had USC’s number with a sweep last year to win the Pac-12 title, but give me the points just in case they lose a close battle.
Stay in the Mormon state (I just thought of a joke: sports betting isn’t legal in Utah, but if it was, the sportsbook could be called the “The Book of Mormon”). Utah State has been good to me in recent years as it’s an under-the-radar program that I usually have power-rated higher than others. The Aggies put up a valiant effort against Fresno State in a 37-32 loss a week ago Friday, and a repeat performance probably pulls the upset.