NHL schedule scenarios betting systems

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In most of the daily sports, the rest a team gets and the routines regarding scheduling play an important role in how well they play from day to day. Naturally, the level of fatigue a team faces can have a huge impact on the effort level it brings to the field, court, or, for this article, the ice.

I have made tracking these scheduling scenarios and comparing the situations of two teams in any given hockey game a key part of my handicapping routine. It proved to be a very fruitful exercise in the 2022-23 season, as you’ll see below as I unveil five different NHL Scheduling Scenarios that produced definitive results. I believe they all have a foundation to them as well, which I will explain. As a bonus, I will also reveal upcoming matchups in which these scenarios will be in play in the near future for you to take advantage of.

** Note the upcoming games mentioned cover contests played over the next two weeks, starting Thursday, 10/19

 

NHL Scheduling Scenario System #1

NHL road teams playing on the standard one-day rest scenario were 371-362 for +51.5 units of profit (7.0% R.O.I.) in the 2022-23 season, so long as the home opponent wasn’t on extended rest (3+ Days).

Steve’s thoughts: The one-day rest scenario is the most common scheduling situation for teams in the NBA and NHL, so it figures to bring the greatest amount of routine into play. Essentially, this is when a team plays one day (or night), is off the next, and then plays the following day again. This was a very strong spot for road teams and figures to be once again in 2023-24. For the record, the home teams going against the road teams in this one-day rest scenario lost 133.04 units for an R.O.I. of -18.2%!

 

Upcoming games for system #1

Thursday, October 19, 2023       

VANCOUVER CANUCKS: One Day

TAMPA BAY LIGHTNING:  One Day

           

NASHVILLE PREDATORS: One Day

NEW YORK RANGERS: Two Days

           

EDMONTON OILERS: One Day

PHILADELPHIA FLYERS: One Day

           

LOS ANGELES KINGS: One Day

MINNESOTA WILD: One Day

           

VEGAS GOLDEN KNIGHTS: One Day

WINNIPEG JETS: One Day

           

CAROLINA HURRICANES: One Day

SEATTLE KRAKEN: One Day

 

Saturday, October 21, 2023       

ANAHEIM DUCKS: One Day

ARIZONA COYOTES: One Day

           

VANCOUVER CANUCKS: One Day

FLORIDA PANTHERS: One Day

           

TORONTO MAPLE LEAFS: One Day

TAMPA BAY LIGHTNING: One Day

           

VEGAS GOLDEN KNIGHTS: One Day

CHICAGO BLACKHAWKS: One Day

           

PHILADELPHIA FLYERS: One Day

DALLAS STARS: One Day

           

SAN JOSE SHARKS: One Day

NASHVILLE PREDATORS: One Day

           

CAROLINA HURRICANES: One Day

COLORADO AVALANCHE: One Day

           

WINNIPEG JETS: One Day

EDMONTON OILERS: One Day

           

NEW YORK RANGERS: One Day

SEATTLE KRAKEN: One Day

           

BOSTON BRUINS: One Day

LOS ANGELES KINGS: One Day

 

Sunday, October 22, 2023          

CALGARY FLAMES: One Day

DETROIT RED WINGS: A2H b2b

 

Monday, October 23, 2023         

MONTREAL CANADIENS: One Day

BUFFALO SABRES: One Day

 

Tuesday, October 24, 2023        

ANAHEIM DUCKS: One Day

COLUMBUS BLUE JACKETS:Two Days

           

BOSTON BRUINS: One Day

CHICAGO BLACKHAWKS: Two Days

 

Thursday, October 26, 2023       

ANAHEIM DUCKS: One Day

BOSTON BRUINS: One Day

           

SEATTLE KRAKEN: One Day

CAROLINA HURRICANES: One Day

           

WINNIPEG JETS: One Day

DETROIT RED WINGS: One Day

           

COLUMBUS BLUE JACKETS: One Day

MONTREAL CANADIENS: One Day

           

MINNESOTA WILD: One Day

PHILADELPHIA FLYERS: One Day

           

COLORADO AVALANCHE: One Day

PITTSBURGH PENGUINS: One Day

           

SAN JOSE SHARKS: One Day

TAMPA BAY LIGHTNING: One Day

           

OTTAWA SENATORS: One Day

NEW YORK ISLANDERS: One Day

           

TORONTO MAPLE LEAFS: One Day

DALLAS STARS: One Day

           

ST. LOUIS BLUES: One Day

CALGARY FLAMES: One Day

           

NEW YORK RANGERS: One Day

EDMONTON OILERS: One Day

 

Saturday, October 28, 2023       

ANAHEIM DUCKS: One Day

PHILADELPHIA FLYERS: One Day

           

DETROIT RED WINGS: One Day

BOSTON BRUINS: One Day

           

NEW YORK ISLANDERS: One Day

COLUMBUS BLUE JACKETS: One Day

           

WINNIPEG JETS: One Day

MONTREAL CANADIENS: One Day

           

OTTAWA SENATORS:  One Day

PITTSBURGH PENGUINS : One Day

           

NEW YORK RANGERS: One Day

VANCOUVER CANUCKS: H2H b2b

 

Sunday, October 29, 2023          

MINNESOTA WILD: One Day

NEW JERSEY DEVILS: One Day

           

SAN JOSE SHARKS: One Day

WASHINGTON CAPITALS: One Day

 

Monday, October 30, 2023         

FLORIDA PANTHERS: One Day

BOSTON BRUINS:  One Day

           

ANAHEIM DUCKS: One Day

PITTSBURGH PENGUINS: One Day

           

SEATTLE KRAKEN: One Day

TAMPA BAY LIGHTNING: 3+ Days

           

NEW YORK RANGERS: One Day

WINNIPEG JETS: One Day

           

MONTREAL CANADIENS: One Day

VEGAS GOLDEN KNIGHTS: One Day

 

Wednesday, November 1, 2023

DALLAS STARS: One Day

CALGARY FLAMES:  Two Days

           

ARIZONA COYOTES: One Day

ANAHEIM DUCKS: One Day

 

 

NHL Scheduling Scenario System #2

NHL home teams playing on the standard one-day rest scenario were 164-124 for +17.8 units of profit (6.2% R.O.I.) in the 2022-23 season when matched against a road team not in that scenario.

Steve’s thoughts: While 17.8 units of profit and an R.O.I. of 6.2% aren’t earth-shattering betting numbers for these home teams, they are quite impressive when you consider the overall loss incurred by backers of hosts overall last season. Again, I must point out that the one-day rest scenario is the most common scheduling situation, so players get comfortable with their preparation routine. With very definitive home advantageous situations, this is one to watch for.

 

Upcoming games for system #2

Thursday, October 19, 2023       

CALGARY FLAMES: Two Days

BUFFALO SABRES: One Day

           

CHICAGO BLACKHAWKS: Two Days

COLORADO AVALANCHE: One Day

           

BOSTON BRUINS: 3+ Days

SAN JOSE SHARKS: One Day

 

Saturday, October 21, 2023       

NEW YORK ISLANDERS: H2A b2b

BUFFALO SABRES: One Day

           

COLUMBUS BLUE JACKETS: H2A b2b

MINNESOTA WILD: One Day

           

PITTSBURGH PENGUINS: Two Days

ST. LOUIS BLUES: One Day

 

Tuesday, October 24, 2023        

SEATTLE KRAKEN: Two Days

DETROIT RED WINGS: One Day

           

NEW YORK RANGERS:  Two Days

CALGARY FLAMES:  One Day

 

Friday, October 27, 2023 

BUFFALO SABRES:  Two Days

NEW JERSEY DEVILS: One Day

           

MINNESOTA WILD: A2A b2b

WASHINGTON CAPITALS: One Day

 

Sunday, October 29, 2023          

COLORADO AVALANCHE: Two Days

BUFFALO SABRES: One Day

 

Monday, October 30, 2023         

CAROLINA HURRICANES: Two Days

PHILADELPHIA FLYERS: One Day

 

Wednesday, November 1, 2023

BUFFALO SABRES: Two Days

PHILADELPHIA FLYERS: One Day

 

 

NHL Scheduling Scenario System #3

Strangely, NHL home teams playing on two days rest game scenario were just 142-141 for -56.93 units of loss (-20.1% R.O.I.) in the 2022-23 season.

Steve’s thoughts: This system shows how just a slight altering of routine can affect a team, even at home. It’s not often in any sport where bettors can fade such a simple system that shows a loss of over 20% R.O.I. Often, these home teams are overpriced a touch because of the extra rest when, in fact, that factor is actually not advantageous.

Upcoming games for system #3 (PLAY AGAINST HOME TEAMS IN BOLD)

 

Thursday, October 19, 2023       

NASHVILLE PREDATORS: One Day

NEW YORK RANGERS: Two Days

           

TORONTO MAPLE LEAFS: Two Days

FLORIDA PANTHERS: Two Days

 

Friday, October 20, 2023 

NEW JERSEY DEVILS: 3+ Days

NEW YORK ISLANDERS: Two Days

 

Saturday, October 21, 2023       

DETROIT RED WINGS: Two Days

OTTAWA SENATORS: Two Days

 

Tuesday, October 24, 2023        

TORONTO MAPLE LEAFS: Two Days

WASHINGTON CAPITALS: Two Days

           

ANAHEIM DUCKS: One Day

COLUMBUS BLUE JACKETS: Two Days

           

BUFFALO SABRES: H2A b2b

OTTAWA SENATORS: Two Days

           

CAROLINA HURRICANES:  Two Days

TAMPA BAY LIGHTNING: Two Days

           

DALLAS STARS: Two Days

PITTSBURGH PENGUINS: Two Days

           

SAN JOSE SHARKS: Two Days

FLORIDA PANTHERS: Two Days

           

COLORADO AVALANCHE: Two Days

NEW YORK ISLANDERS: Two Days

           

BOSTON BRUINS: One Day

CHICAGO BLACKHAWKS: Two Days

           

ST. LOUIS BLUES: Two Days

WINNIPEG JETS: Two Days

           

EDMONTON OILERS: Two Days

MINNESOTA WILD: Two Days

           

VANCOUVER CANUCKS: Two Days

NASHVILLE PREDATORS: Two Days

           

ARIZONA COYOTES: Two Days

LOS ANGELES KINGS: Two Days

           

PHILADELPHIA FLYERS: Two Days

VEGAS GOLDEN KNIGHTS: Two Days

 

Friday, October 27, 2023 

CHICAGO BLACKHAWKS: Two Days

VEGAS GOLDEN KNIGHTS: Two Days

           

LOS ANGELES KINGS: Two Days

ARIZONA COYOTES: Two Days

           

ST. LOUIS BLUES: A2A b2b

VANCOUVER CANUCKS: Two Days

 

Sunday, October 29, 2023          

CALGARY FLAMES: Two Days

EDMONTON OILERS: Two Days

 

Monday, October 30, 2023         

CHICAGO BLACKHAWKS: Two Days

ARIZONA COYOTES: Two Days

 

Tuesday, October 31, 2023        

LOS ANGELES KINGS: Two Days

TORONTO MAPLE LEAFS: Two Days

           

NASHVILLE PREDATORS: Two Days

VANCOUVER CANUCKS: Two Days

 

Wednesday, November 1, 2023

DALLAS STARS: One Day

CALGARY FLAMES: Two Days

           

ST. LOUIS BLUES: 3+ Days

COLORADO AVALANCHE: Two Days

 

 

NHL Scheduling Scenario System #4

NHL home teams playing on back-to-back days game scenario were 15-7 for +9.35 units of profit (42.5% R.O.I.) in the 2022-23 season when matched against a road team that played the prior day at home.

Steve’s thoughts: Obviously, there are travel advantages associated with this one. Playing at home on the second of back-to-back games is a lot more comfortable for players than having to travel late the night before and arrive in a road city in a rushed fashion. This system doesn’t occur often, so be sure to jump on them when they arise, as 42.5% ROI is not something to miss.

Upcoming games for system #4

 

Wednesday, October 25, 2023  

WASHINGTON CAPITALS: H2A b2b

NEW JERSEY DEVILS: A2H b2b

 

Saturday, October 28, 2023       

VEGAS GOLDEN KNIGHTS: H2A b2b

LOS ANGELES KINGS: A2H b2b

 

NHL Scheduling Scenario System #5

In all other second games of a back-to-back scenario besides those described in system #4, NHL home teams playing on back-to-back days game scenario were just 43-57 for -34.29 units of loss (-34.3% R.O.I.) in the 2022-23 season.

Steve’s thoughts: The reasons for this ugly system on home teams stem from nothing more than fatigue. There is a reason that back-to-back scenarios are such a major focus when the NHL schedule for the upcoming season is released in early summer each year. The fatigue factor outweighs any type of home ice advantage. On top of that, most teams in back-to-back scenarios turn to their #2 goalies for that contest.

Upcoming games for system #5

 

Sunday, October 22, 2023          

CALGARY FLAMES: One Day

DETROIT RED WINGS: A2H b2b

           

BOSTON BRUINS: A2A b2b

ANAHEIM DUCKS: A2H b2b

 

Tuesday, October 24, 2023        

NEW JERSEY DEVILS:  3+ Days

MONTREAL CANADIENS: A2H b2b

 

Friday, October 27, 2023 

SAN JOSE SHARKS: A2A b2b

CAROLINA HURRICANES: H2H b2b

 

Saturday, October 28, 2023                   

NEW YORK RANGERS: One Day

VANCOUVER CANUCKS: H2H b2b

 

Summary

These scheduling systems prove that NHL betting isn’t just a matter of picking the better team in a matchup. The rigors of playing an 84-game season on numerous different scheduling scenarios take their toll. Therefore, it’s important to not only recognize the strengths of the teams in a game, but also how their rest or fatigue might have them physically and/or mentally prepared for any given contest.

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As one of the original founders of StatFox, Steve Makinen has been in the business of sports betting and data analysis for almost 25 years now. In his time in the industry, Steve has worked in a variety of capacities on both sides of the betting counter, from his early days of developing the StatFox business, to almost a decade of oddsmaking consulting for one of the world's leading sportsbooks, to his last seven years as Point Spread Weekly and Analytics Director with VSiN. Steve has always believed that number crunching and handicapping through foundational trends and systems is the secret to success and he shares this data with VSiN readers on a daily basis for all of the major sports.