Tuley’s Takes – Week 1 College Football Best Bets, Picks and Predictions:
Our long national nightmare is over in the Tuley’s Takes home office as we have “real football” with CFB Week 1 this weekend. Well, we did have the NFL preseason (and went 5-3 ATS, 62.5%, so that was real enough for us) and CFB Week 0, but this is the legit opening weekend as it was a reduced schedule (and I didn’t have any Best Bets anyway).
Before getting to our first regular-season “takes,” I’d like to offer a personal note as a longtime member of my ViewFromVegas Forum family, tpking (which stands for “toilet paper king” as he owned an apartment supply company), passed away during the offseason. He created the Legendary Math Model for handicapping football games (primary focus on college). We had a lot of success over the years with what we called our “agreement games.” I always do my own handicapping, but I would use the LMM to wean out my weaker plays if it landed on a favorite that was too strong.
I’m going to miss being able to use the LMM to narrow down my Best Bets each week (especially during bowl season) and also our heated (but always respectful) conversations. R.I.P., tpking. I’ll just have to use the lessons learned and focus more on avoiding overmatched dogs, no matter how many points we’re getting.
Let’s get into this weekend’s card after not having any plays for Thursday.
Colorado (+4.5) vs. Georgia Tech
8 p.m. ET/5 p.m. PT
Say what you want about your personal feelings about “Neon” Deion “Prime Time” Sanders, but he’s been a winner everywhere he’s gone as a player and now as Coach Prime. He doesn’t have his son at QB (with former Liberty QB Kaidon Salter winning the job) or Heisman Trophy winner Travis Hunter, but I’m sure the Buffaloes will be competitive under Sanders, or he wouldn’t have stuck around, especially after his cancer scare. The Ramblin’ Wreck of Georgia Tech is getting some love as an ACC darkhorse team with QB Haynes King and RB Jamal Haynes back, and this line has continued to climb. But I’m willing to fade that move and will wait until closer to gametime to see if we can get another point or two.
College Football Best Bet: Colorado +4.5
Sam Houston (+10) vs. UNLV
Friday, 9:30 p.m. ET/6:30 p.m. PT
This is more of a play against my adopted hometown team, UNLV. The Rebels certainly exceeded all expectations last season as they broke into the Top 25, but I’m expecting them to come back to earth this season despite the hiring of coach Jeff Mullin. And I think we already saw that in their Week 0 opener as they were 30.5-point favorites against FCS’ Idaho State and had to rally in the second half just to win outright, 38-31, allowing a whopping 555 yards in the process.
This line is much shorter, but I certainly wouldn’t trust UNLV to cover any number yet (if I were a chalk player, which I’m not). The only reason this line is still in double digits is that Sam Houston State also played well in its Week 0 opener, losing 41-24 to Western Kentucky as 10-point road underdogs. This opened UNLV -13.5 at DraftKings, so early sharp money has come in on the dog despite people saying Sam Houston doesn’t have home-field advantage with this being played off-campus, but it’s still a road game for UNLV. I don’t know if I’ll take the Bearkats on the money line to pull the outright upset, but I like them as a home dog getting more than a TD (though, again, stressing it’s more a fade of an overrated UNLV team).
College Football Best Bet: Sam Houston +10
Toledo (+10) at Kentucky
Saturday, 12:45 p.m. ET/9:45 a.m. PT
My alma mater, Northern Illinois, is leaving the Mid-American Conference for the Mountain West after this season. (I’d love to watch my Huskies at UNLV like I did on my first Vegas trip on Thanksgiving Weekend 1987. The Huskies beat UNLV and Ickey Woods, and I fell in love with the city. I never imagined I’d be living here exactly 11 years later.) I’ve long played MACtion teams in nonconference games as they’re often underrated. I think we get that here with Toledo, the preseason pick to win the MAC. The Rockets are just 3-4 SU the last seven seasons, but 6-1 ATS because of being live underdogs like this. Kentucky is obviously favored as an SEC school vs. the MAC, but the Wildcats are coming off a 4-8 season, and even though coach Mark Stoops has brought in 20 transfers to try to turn around the program, they shouldn’t be laying double digits to a talented Toledo team.
College Football Best Bet: Toledo +10
Texas (+1.5) at Ohio State
Saturday, Noon ET/9 a.m. PT
In the VSiN College Football Betting Guide more than a month ago, I gave out this as my only Week 1 play. That was at +3, so it was nice to lock in the best number at that time as the line is now down to +1.5 at most books and even +1 at Circa Sports as of this writing on Thursday afternoon. For those having to bet vs. the current lines, I still honestly believe Texas is the right play as any kind of underdog, and I’m putting my money where my mouth is as I’m still using Texas +1.5 in the inaugural SuperContest College contest at the Westgate here in Vegas.
My analysis still stands from the Betting Guide. This is a rematch of last January’s national semifinal, with Ohio State basically being favored due to the game being played in Columbus. The loser of this game won’t be eliminated from CFB Playoff consideration (especially since conference games still hold more importance), but it’s a great statement game and revenge spot for the Longhorns. Back in January, Texas was driving for the tying touchdown before fumbling the ball away, and Ohio State’s Jack Sawyer went 83 yards the other way for a scoop and score to seal the Buckeyes’ victory. Ohio State won 28-14, but it was pretty much a coin-flip game until that spot that could have gone either way. I’ll take the field goal in what should be another tight battle to set the tone for this season.
College Football Best Bet: Texas +1.5
For more college football Week 1 best bets and analysis, visit the College Football Week 1 hub, exclusively on VSiN.
