Tuley’s Takes – Week 1 College Football Best Bets, Picks and Predictions:
We’re excited for this weekend’s true start of the college football season here in the Tuley’s Takes home office. Yes, we know there were a handful of games last Saturday in Week 0, but we have a pretty full slate for Week 1, and it feels more like Opening Day. Besides, I didn’t love anything in Week 0 and nothing worthy of sharing in one of my weekly CFB columns here on VSiN.com (where we plan to post each Thursday after our weekly Wednesday NFL columns).
When one of our longtime regular readers asked my Twitter/X account @ViewFromVegas if I had any takes, I said the only game I bet was Hawaii +4 but was afraid it was turning into a dreaded public dog and didn’t want to make it an official Best Bet. I’m glad I posted that, as the Rainbow Warriors were mostly dominated by Stanford, which led 23-7 entering the fourth quarter. Hawaii did score three unanswered TDs to actually take a 27-23 lead with just over 4 minutes to play, but Stanford re–rallied for a go-ahead TD and then tacked on another TD with 1:12 left to not only win 37-27 but cover the spread. But I’m not going to whine about a “Bad Beat,” as Hawaii was the wrong side most of the game and would have been a lucky cover.
In my mind, we’re starting with a clean slate. Longtime readers of mine know we usually tread lightly early in the CFB season with a lot of turnover every year and not knowing how good or bad these college teams are going to be – and that’s been magnified in recent years with the transfer portal and the explosion of NIL deals changing the landscape – so I’ll focus on four games this Saturday.
Liberty (+6.5) at James Madison
These former FCS schools (formerly Division I-AA) in Virginia renewed their Battle of the Blue Ridge series last year for the first time as FBS members. The game was tied at halftime, but James Madison pulled away in the second half to win 31-13 and went on to make the College Football Playoff. We certainly understand why James Madison, which has an impressive 40-11 record since moving up to FBS in 2022, is favored, but Liberty is no slouch and is among my VSiN colleague Steve Makinen’s leaders in his Stability Scores with most of its team back while James Madison lost coach Bob Chesney and defensive coordinator Colin Hitchler to UCLA and a lot of top players from last season (though they did well in the transfer portal). Liberty is better than its 4-8 record last year, and it’s a good spot to catch James Madison in the season opener (I suspect if this game was a few weeks later that I would need to be getting more than a TD).
College Football Best Bet: Liberty +6.5
Central Michigan (+10.5) at New Mexico
My alma mater, Northern Illinois, has moved to the Mountain West Conference (and I look forward to seeing the Huskies play at UNLV), but I’m still going to remain a MACtion fan after following the conference closely for years. Central Michigan is a middle-of-the-road MAC program, but this matchup suits the Chippewas, as both teams are expected to rely on the running game, which should shorten the game. That will make it harder for New Mexico to win by margin in its first game after QB Jack Layne started every game last season with no stud to replace him.
College Football Best Bet: Central Michigan +10.5
Clemson (+10.5) at LSU
Both teams play in “Death Valley” as their respective home stadiums, with this interconference game being played in Louisiana, but I’ve written for years that home-field advantage doesn’t mean as much as it used to. We feel this line is too high. Lane Kiffin took the LSU job under much hype, and I can’t help but think that has helped inflate this line as well. Clemson is also flying under the radar as these Tigers aren’t ranked in the preseason polls for the first time in 14 years, but give me a motivated Dabo Swinney vs. the overrated Kiffin. Longtime handicapper and frequent VSiN guest Marc Lawrence points out that LSU was 1-5 ATS in season openers in the prior regime (and Clemson is 8-2 ATS when seeking revenge in recent years), and I’m willing to fade them in Kiffin’s debut.
College Football Best Bet: Clemson +10.5
Arkansas State (+11.5) at Memphis
This is another case of Arkansas State being very high in Makinen’s Stability Scores and Memphis being very low. Memphis is coming off a win over UNLV in Week 9, but they were outgained 460-418, so it was a bit of a fluke. Memphis also hasn’t defended its home field in recent years. As Marc Lawrence points out, the Tigers are 0-9 ATS as home chalk of fewer than 21 points when coming off a SU and ATS win. Arkansas State is no slouch under six-year coach Butch Jones. The QB situation still needs to be decided for Arky State, but whoever emerges as the starter has all-Sun Belt RB Kenyon Clay (523 yards and 3 TDs) and WR Chauncy Cobb (73 receptions, 797 yards) in that core group of returners, and that should be enough to keep this a one-score game.
College Football Best Bet: Arkansas State +11.5
For more Week 1 college football picks and predictions, visit the VSiN Week 1 College Football Hub.
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