The Week 1 college football slate is filled with lines that have been up forever and a whole lot of FCS vs. FBS matchups. It can be a challenging week, especially since we’ve seen 16 teams take the field, 122 of them not in action, and there aren’t a lot of games with premier teams going head-to-head. That means that there are a lot of big spreads out there and the close numbers are higher-variance games with new head coaches, lots of turnover, or evenly-matched teams from last season that absolutely could go either way this season.
As we get more data points, we’ll get more certainty, but an uncertain environment can be good for bettors, as the sportsbooks are trying to figure these teams out as much as we are. With that in mind, while this week may seem daunting, it isn’t one that we should shy away from. Here are my favorite Week 1 college football picks.
Liberty vs. James Madison Prediction
Noon, ET
Pick: James Madison -6
The moment when Judge Smails pulls out Billy Baroo and tries to coax a putt out of his club of choice by muttering “Billy, Billy, Billy, Billy, Billy, Billy” is stuck in my head when thinking about Billy Napier. Maybe that’s weird. It sounded better in my head. Nevertheless, Sun Belt Billy is back in the Belt and I think he’ll mostly be able to keep up the standards of this program.
That starts this week against Liberty. JC Evans and Camden Coleman may both play here, but the Dukes didn’t put forth a lot of NIL investment into the position. I think they believe in the 6-foot-5 Evans and the 6-foot-3 Coleman, who was in the program last season and opted to stick around. To me, they liked at least one of those two options to emerge and that’s good enough for me, as the rest of their portal haul was 247Sports’ top-ranking class of 2026.
OC Cam Aiken is a guy that I have very high hopes for. He was on Clemson’s staff for two Natties, coached under Lane Kiffin, and then led an East Tennessee State offense to 32 PPG last season. This strikes me as a great hire by Napier and should make the transition a bit easier.
On the Liberty side, Jamey Chadwell is still trying to figure things out. He had the one strong season at Liberty, but it’s been a struggle since. Even their wins haven’t been impressive and last year’s team finished 4-8. After former Coastal Carolina signal-caller Ethan Vasko failed to assimilate to the Flames offense last season, Chadwell brought in Deshawn Purdie, a better runner than passer at the collegiate level to this point. RB Kanye Udoh is a dude, but the offense looks like all it can do is run the football right now.
With a one-dimensional group and a new DC, I’ll need Chadwell to prove something to me here. I know JMU has a lot of new faces, but under a touchdown, I have to take this, as my line is -9.
Florida Atlantic vs. Florida Prediction
7:45 p.m. ET
Pick: Florida Atlantic +26.5
Wunderkind Zach Kittley had an interesting first season in Boca Raton, as the Owls were 4-8, but a solid 7-5 ATS and 7-5 to the Over. As a team that finished -21 in turnover margin, they have some obvious things to clean up and the hope would be that QB Caden Veltkamp would be able to do a bit better in Year 2 of the system. Star WR Easton Messer is back for more after catching 104 balls for 1,052 yards last season and Dominique Henry, who started slow, caught 18 balls for 297 yards over the final three games.
FAU wants to throw the ball. Maybe they can find more balance with Kaden Shields-Dutton, who got steadier work late in the season, or Fairmont State transfer Leonard Farrow. But, this is a dangerous backdoor cover team at all times. As long as they aren’t turning the football over with reckless abandon, I think the Owls will have a much better and more balanced offense this season.
The Jon Sumrall era begins with a lot of hope, as the Gators were putrid on offense last season and really weren’t that great on defense either. Florida was just 91st in YPP with 5.4 and just 21.6 PPG, which ranked 111th. The Power Four teams below Florida in scoring were Virginia Tech, Colorado, Syracuse, North Carolina, Stanford, Purdue, UCLA, Oklahoma State, and Wisconsin, so a lot of teams with new head coaches.
Perhaps Sumrall and new OC Buster Faulkner find success right away with Georgia Tech transfer Aaron Philo, who was the backup to Haynes King in Faulkner’s offense last season. Nearly all of Philo’s action came against Gardner-Webb last season, so we can’t really glean much from that.
While I do think Florida will improve as the season goes along, Sumrall walked into a pretty good situation at Tulane after Willie Fritz left for Houston. I don’t think he walked into a good situation here and I’m not sure this hodgepodge group of players will have the new systems and schemes down well enough to win by four touchdowns or more here.
Central Michigan vs. New Mexico Prediction
10 p.m. ET
Pick: Central Michigan +11
The absence of Jack Layne may not be a big deal for the Lobos as the season goes along, given the expected starter at QB had a 13/10 TD/INT ratio last season, but I think it matters at the outset here. Head coach Jason Eck may roll out a multitude of options here to see which one might stick.
Central Michigan does not have that same, as Angel Flores will be the transfer. Joe Labas wound up doing most of the passing last season with a 70.7% completion rate and a 13/6 TD/INT ratio, but Flores was a big part of the picture with a team-high 107 carries for 527 yards. There is no question as to what Central Michigan wants to do, as they ran the ball 545 times out of 800 plays. The Chippewas were a top-25 offense in rush attempts that finished tied for 101st in total offensive plays.
With former Army OL coach Matt Drinkall serving in the head role here, it’s pretty clear that he has brought some of those run-heavy concepts to Mount Pleasant. The Chips want to shorten games with a ball-control offense and a lot of safe, easy throws. Between Labas, Flores, and the others with cameo appearances, CMU was eighth in the nation in completion percentage.
To cover this type of number against that kind of team requires some offensive efficiency. Layne completed over 65% of his passes, but New Mexico was a run-first unit as well that had 118 more carries than pass attempts. They had 4.2 yards per carry and only 13 rushes of 20+ yards. Given the limited number of possessions I’d expect to see in this game and Central Michigan having a returning starter at QB, it’s a big ask, even with the long travel and the elevation advantages, of New Mexico to win by margin here.
