Tuley’s Takes – Week 10 College Football Best Bets and Predictions:

We continue to trade money here with our college football Best Bets (2-2 ATS again last Saturday) in the Tuley’s Takes home office, but we’re encouraged as the calendar turns to November for our Week 10 college football best bets.

At least both of our winners – BYU (+2.5 in a 37-24 win at Central Florida) and West Virginia (+3 in a 31-26 win at Arizona) – both pulled outright upsets, though we lost badly with Louisiana-Monroe (+7 in an ugly 46-17 loss at South Alabama) and LSU (+1 in a 38-23 loss at Texas A&M).

 

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Let’s try to get back on the winning track (to bottom a horse racing phrase with the Breeders’ Cup World Championships also this weekend) with three (hopefully) live dogs this Saturday.

Northwestern (+1.5) at Purdue

Saturday, 12:00 p.m. ET

I know it’s just a point (or a point and a half), but I obviously think the wrong team is favored here. Granted, Northwestern (3-5, 1-4 in the Big Ten) isn’t very good this year, but the Wildcats have been much more competitive than Purdue (1-6, 0-4), which only has a win over an FCS school and is only favored due to so-called home-field advantage. Purdue did take No.23 Illinois to overtime two weeks ago before falling 50-49, but then was run over 35-0 by No. 1 Oregon, so I’m not sure how much the Boilermakers have in the tank. Northwestern dual-threat QB Jack Lausch should have success against a Purdue defense that has shredded all season long at 38.4 points per game (ranking No. 125 in the nation).

Week 10 College Football Best Bet: Northwestern +1.5

Vanderbilt (+7.5) at Auburn

Saturday, 12:45 p.m. ET

Vanderbilt has a well-earned losing tradition as the worst program in the SEC, but the Commodores have turned that around this year as they’re on the verge of bowl eligibility at 5-3, including their shocking 40-35 upset of Alabama as 22.5-point home underdogs. OK, so this is on the road, but Auburn isn’t as strong as we’ve seen in recent years and actually lost their first four SEC games before beating Kentucky last week. Regardless of all of the above, the Tigers are favored by more than a touchdown, so we’re thrilled to take the inflated line. Auburn obviously has more talent, but they’ve also thrown an SEC-high 10 INTs. Regular readers might recall me playing Vandy QB Diego Pavia as a dog when he was at New Mexico State, so I do think he’s underrated and could be the best quarterback in the stadium on Saturday. Both defenses are solid, so this should be a close, relatively low-scoring game with the Commodores able to stay within one score with a shot at another upset in the cotton state.

Week 10 College Football Best Bet: Vanderbilt +7.5

Louisiana-Monroe +10.5 at Marshall

Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET

Yes, we lost badly with the Warhawks last week, but they’ve been good to us overall, and I’m hoping they bounce back getting double digits. In fact, this is just as much a play against Marshall as it is on UL-Monroe. Granted, Marshall is 6-0-1 ATS this season, but I believe that’s a big part of why this line is so high, as oddsmakers try to make backers pay a premium. The Thundering Herd allows 26.3 points and 399.9 yards per game, so, while the ULM offense isn’t that great, it should be able to stay within one score behind the balanced attack of Aidan Armenta (630 passing yards, five TDs) and Ahmad Hardy (6-4 rushing yards, six TDs). Marshall’s strength is its ground attack (215 yards per game), but that should also help keep the clock running, which helps when you have the dog trying to cover.

Week 10 College Football Best Bet: Louisiana-Monroe +10.5

For more Week 10 college football analysis, visit the Week 10 College Football Hub, exclusively on VSiN.com.

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