Tuley’s Takes – Week 10 College Football Best Bets, Picks and Predictions:
We continue one of our favorite sports weekends here in the Tuley’s Takes home office with a look at Saturday’s college football card.
We’ve been disappointed so far with the second half of the regular season as we went just 2-2 ATS last Saturday with wins on Northwestern +7.5 in 28-21 loss at Nebraska and Michigan State +14 in 31-20 loss at Michigan with losses on Baylor +3.5 in a 41-20 loss at Cincinnati and Colorado +13.5 in an even worse 53-7 blowout at Utah.
That puts our season record to a woeful 17-21 ATS, but we’re not going to excuse of being distracted by the World Series, NFL, start of NHL and NBA season or the Breeders’ Cup taking place this weekend (in addition to all the Tuley Halloween activities going on this past month), especially since I’ve had some of my best CFB weekends at this time of year, even when the World Series of Poker held its “November Nine” final table of the Main Event this same week for several years last decade,
So, we’re going to continue to trust our “dog or pass” process and search for our strongest “takes” in college football as well as the other sports (and horse racing longshots).
Let’s go back to school with three (hopefully) live underdogs, plus a total, on Saturday.
Navy (+7) at North Texas
Saturday, Noon ET/ 9 a.m. PT
Tuley’s Take: I was happy to fade Navy a few weeks ago with Temple as I felt the undefeated Midshipmen were overrated, but I’m usually more inclined to back the service academies (when they’re underdogs) as I just feel you always get maximum effort from well-disciplined teams. And even though I bet against them before, I know this is a solid Navy team (and they can even pass the ball a little for a change). In this case, it’s North Texas (7-1) that comes in a little overrated. The Mean Green does have a high-powered offense, but Navy has the running game to keep North Texas off the field as much as possible and give its defense time to rest. When I took Temple vs. Navy, we also hit the Over, but in this game I like the Under 66 with the Navy No. 1 rushing offense (318.1 yards per game) shortening the contest..
College Football Best Bets: Navy +7 and Under 66
USC at Nebraska (+4.5)
Saturday, 7:30 p.m. ET/4:30 p.m. PT
Tuley’s Take: After winning with Northwestern and Michigan State last week, I have to find a Big Ten game I like (even though it’s hard to think of these two schools being in the Big Ten). This is another case of a team that I bet against as an overrated chalk (just like week with Northwestern against this Nebraska team), but saw enough from the Cornhuskers to like them here as an underdog. USC comes in with the No. 1 overall offense (530 yards per game), so I get why the Trojans are favored on the road, especially since they’re more of the “public team,” but Nebraska is No. 11 in total defense and No. 2 in pass defense, so I’m counting on that to make them live home dogs. Matt Ruhle is also 11-5 ATS as a home dog seeking revenge, so I’m confident he’ll have the Cornhuskers ready for this Saturday night matchup.
College Football Best Bet: Nebraska +4.5
Georgia Tech at North Carolina State (+5.5)
Saturday, 7:30 p.m. ET/4:30 p.m. PT
Tuley’s Take: Georgia Tech is another undefeated team that has been slowly climbing the national rankings and putting itself in position for a CFB Playoff spot, but I still believe they’re laying too many points here on the road. In fact, I kinda think the oddsmakers are giving a big clue that they know North Carolina State is a live dog here even though the Wolfpack is just 4-4. NC State did get blown out 46-7 by Notre Dame three weeks ago, but otherwise they’ve been a lot more competitive. Georgia Tech and QB Haynes King haven’t done anything wrong (No. 25 in scoring, No. 35 in points allowed) to make me want to fade them, but the eye test tells me this isn’t a national title contender and they could be looking past this game. The key will be if NC State’s D can improve off back-to-back poor performances, but those were both on the road, so hopefully home cooking does the trick.
College Football Best Bet: North Carolina State +5.5
For more college football Week 10 best bets and analysis, visit the College Football Week 10 hub, exclusively on VSiN.
