Tuley’s Takes – Week 11 College Football Best Bets, Picks and Predictions:
Last Saturday was disappointing in the Tuley’s Takes home office with the Breeders’ Cup, but at least we went 3-1 with our college football plays to cut our losses. I lost with my first play on Navy +7 in the Midshipmen’s 31-17 loss at North Texas, but comfortably hit the Under 66 (closed 69) that I posted here on Friday and followed that up with Nebraska +4.5 covering in a 21-17 home loss vs. USC and North Carolina State +5.5 beating previously unbeaten Georgia Tech 48-36 in one of the biggest upsets of the day. That improved us to a still disappointing 20-22 ATS overall on the CFB season, but it was a great start for the stretch run in November.
I like how it felt going with my three strongest “dog or pass” plays on the card (and all home dogs this week after going 2-0 ATS with home dogs last week and 0-1 ATS with the lone road dog), plus a solid Over/Under, so let’s go with that again this Saturday.
Oregon at Iowa (+6.5)
Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET
Tuley’s Take: As a Midwestern boy at heart, I’ve had a lot of success betting on the Big Ten (though I still have a hard time accepting teams like Oregon in the region’s elite football conference), including Nebraska covering (grr!) vs. USC (double grr!) last Saturday. But here we have #9 Oregon rolling into Iowa City as favorites of nearly a touchdown to take on #20 Iowa. Oregon is chasing #1 Ohio State and #2 Indiana in the Big Ten standings, but I see the Ducks as overrated and not as good as we’ve seen in recent years, despite their 7-1 record. They’ve beaten up on a lot of weak opponents (per usual) and their biggest win was over Penn State in double overtime, and we’ve all seen that wasn’t as impressive as it seemed at the time. In addition, the Ducks’ sloppy 21-7 home win vs. Wisconsin last week confirmed to me that they shouldn’t be favored by this much over an improving Iowa team, which has won three straight since losing just 20-15 to Indiana. If the Hawkeyes held Indiana to 15 (and Wisconsin held Oregon to 21), Iowa’s defense has the chance to keep this low-scoring and get the cover. I’m not using this as my Total play, but would even lean to the Under 42 points if it wasn’t set so low.
College Football Best Bet: Iowa +6.5
Texas A&M at Missouri (+7)
Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET
Tuley’s Take: We’re fading another top-ranked team with No. 3 Texas A&M visiting #22 Missouri. The Aggies are undefeated at 8-0, but again, I’m not convinced they’re as good as their record. We cashed against them with Arkansas three weeks ago in a 45-42 loss and believe Missouri can play with them, too, with RB Ahmad Hardy (937 yards rushing) leading the attack. This line probably would have been lower if Missouri starting QB Beau Pribula wasn’t hurt in the loss to Vanderbilt, but I’ve often cashed on backup QBs over the years when oddsmakers and the public overreact. I can easily see a case where A&M overloads the box to stop Hardy and gets burned by highly touted freshman Matt Zollers.
College Football Best Bet: Missouri +7
San Diego State at Hawaii (+7)
Saturday, 11 p.m. ET
Tuley’s Take: This isn’t as late as the traditional Saturday “get out” game we expect from the islands (only 11 p.m. ET), but still the last game on the card. Hawaii did lose 45-38 to San Jose State last week, but handicapper Marc Lawrence shares that SDSU coach Sean Lewis is 1-8 ATS as a favorite vs. a greater than .500 team coming off a loss. The long road trip (even from the West Coast) helps level the playing field when the Rainbows have a decent team, and coach Timmy Chang is 15-6 ATS, including an 11-game cover streak. I also love the Over 48.5 points (maybe more) as it appears set low due to the Aztecs’ elite defense (allowing just a mere 10 points per game), but Chang has his team flinging the ball around like his playing days and should put up way more than 10 points. And, let’s be honest, the Hawaii defense (allowing 23.3 points and 402.4 points per game) is usually not the team’s strong unit and they’re used to being in shootouts.
College Football Best Bet: Hawaii +7 and Over 48.5
For more college football Week 11 best bets and analysis, visit the College Football Week 11 hub, exclusively on VSiN.
