Tuley’s Takes – Week 12 College Football Best Bets, Picks and Predictions:
We can hardly believe we’re down to the final three weeks of the college football regular season in the Tuley’s Takes home office, but we’re excited as we see it as the appetizers before the main menu of the bowl games/CFB Playoff.
I went 2-1 with my ATS Best Bets last Saturday, so we’re hoping our followers focused on those. It looked like we were going to go 3-1 for the second straight week, but the scoring slowed down in the second half of Hawaii’s 38-6 rout of San Diego State, so our Hawaii +7 was safe, but we lost our Over 48.5 bet. We split our other two ATS Best Bets on the day with Iowa +6.5 cashing in an 18-16 home loss vs. Oregon but lost on Missouri +7 in a 38-17 home loss vs. Texas A&M.
That leaves our overall record at a still disappointing 22-24 on the season, but we are hoping to keep the momentum going with four (hopefully) live dogs this Saturday.
#21 Iowa (+6.5) at #17 USC
Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET
Tuley’s Take: The Big Ten has been good to this Midwestern boy this season, including with these same Hawkeyes last week. If they could shut down Oregon’s offense, I’m counting on them to do the same again this Saturday against the Trojans. This also looks very similar to the game in which we faded USC with Nebraska +4.5 two weeks ago in a 21-17 game. Southern Cal QB Jayden Maiava hasn’t looked as good when facing better defenses, and that is obviously Iowa’s strength per usual. Just like against Oregon, rain is in the forecast in SoCal, and that helps level the playing field as well.
College Football Best Bet: Iowa +6.5
Penn State at Michigan State (+7)
Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET
Tuley’s Take: Staying in the Big Ten in the afternoon, this is an ugly game between unranked teams (as the preseason polls obviously overrated Penn State, which has lost six straight games). I didn’t bet the Nittany Lions +15 last week against Indiana, but did use them in my SuperContest College entries at the Westgate. They covered in a 27-24 loss, but that had the look of a desperate team playing its Super Bowl, and the end of the “new head coach bump.” I don’t expect the same effort from the Nittany Lions here and certainly don’t believe they’re worthy of being favored by a full TD on the road, even against a poor team like Michigan State. The Spartans are also on a six-game losing streak all in the Big Ten, though we did cash with them +14 in their 31-20 loss vs. Michigan three weeks ago and also are coming off a decent performance in a 23-20 OT loss at Minnesota behind new QB Alessio Miilivojevic (20-for-28, 311 yards, one TD, no INTs).
College Football Best Bet: Michigan State +7
#19 Virginia (+4.5) at Duke
Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET
Tuley’s Take: Virginia is 8-2 this season and tied for the ACC lead at 5-1 with Georgia Tech and Pitt, while Duke is half a game back at 4-1. However, we’re getting points with Virginia. Back of that is due to Duke being at home, but part of it is that Virginia QB Chandler Morris was in concussion protocol after taking a shot to the head early in the Cavaliers’ 16-9 loss vs. Wake Forest last Saturday. It’s usually harder getting injury reports in college football, but reports came out Friday morning that it’s looking more like Morris will be cleared to play Saturday, so I expect this line to drop closer to a field goal. With Morris, Virginia is the play at +3.5 or better.
College Football Best Bet: Virginia +4.5
Florida (+12) at #7 Ole Miss
Saturday, 7 p.m. ET
Tuley’s Take: Florida fired Billy Napier back on Oct. 19 after a disappointing 3-4 start to the season. The Gators got the “new coach bump,” covering in a 24-20 home loss vs. Georgia (so we know the talent is still there to compete in the SEC) before getting blown out 38-7 last Saturday at Kentucky. But I’m counting on them to give a performance similar to the Georgia game here against #7 Ole Miss. The key is if Florida QB DJ Lagway can avoid turnovers (11 TD passes, but 12 INTs), but when he’s at his best, he can trade scores with Rebel QB Trinidad Chambliss (13 TDs but just two INTs). Early sharp money has been on Florida, so I feel we’re in good company. In fact, the VSIN Betting Splits page shows 67% of the bets (the public side) on Mississippi -12, but 74% of the money (the sharper side) on Florida. We’ll take the Pros vs. the Joes.
College Football Best Bet: Florida +12
For more college football Week 12 best bets and analysis, visit the College Football Week 12 hub, exclusively on VSiN.
