Tuley’s Takes – Week 13 College Football Best Bets, Picks and Predictions:
We wrote it last week, but we will amend it this week and say we can hardly believe we’re down to the final two weeks of the college football regular season in the Tuley’s Takes home office.
I had another winning Saturday at 3-1 ATS last week with wins on Virginia +4.5 in a 34-17 outright upset at Duke, Iowa +6.5 in a 26-21 home loss vs. USC and Florida +12 in a 34-24 loss at Mississippi. The lone loss was Michigan State +7 in a 28-10 loss vs. Penn State. That improved our overall record here back to .500 at 25-25 ATS. That’s nothing to write home about, but at least we’re 5-2 ATS in November and hitting our stride down the stretch.
Let’s see if we can keep the momentum going with four (hopefully) live dogs this Saturday.
#16 USC (+10.5) at #6 Oregon
Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET
Tuley’s Take: This Midwestern boy continues to do well with the Big Ten this season, despite the 1-1 ATS mark last Saturday (too bad I passed on Wisconsin +29.5 at Indiana and Northwestern +11 vs. Michigan at Wrigley Field as both dogs covered in SU losses). I faded USC last Saturday vs. Iowa, but now they’re in the underdog role at Oregon in a battle of ranked teams. I won’t pass up the double digits this time in what looks like a much more even matchup. The Trojans have struggled on the road, losing at Illinois and Notre Dame while also just sneaking past Nebraska in Lincoln (we successfully faded them there, too), but I don’t see these Ducks are strong as past Oregon teams and still believe this line should be lower than a TD even if USC doesn’t travel well.
College Football Best Bet: USC +10.5
Tulane at Temple (+10)
Saturday, 3:45 p.m. ET
Tuley’s Take: Regular readers will remember when we cashed with Temple earlier this season against Navy. The Owls are only 5-5 and lost that game 32-21, but they covered what we felt was an overinflated number and we feel this spot is similar with the line having been up to +10 at Circa Sports as of Friday afternoon. The Temple defense will have to contain Tulane QB Jake Retzlaff. The Owls’ offense has struggled the last two weeks, but Tulane’s defense allowed 375 passing yards to FAU last week, which gives me hope the Temple offense can do enough to stay within one score like they did in shootouts with Navy and also Tulsa.
College Football Best Bet: Temple +10
Nebraska (+8) at Penn State
Saturday, 7 p.m. ET
Tuley’s Take: Returning to the Big Ten, I know I lost fading Penn State with Michigan State last week, but I’m still not buying the PSU revival and will again use Nebraska (like we did vs. USC) to cover an overinflated line. If the Cornhuskers could stay within 4 points of USC, they could stay with a full touchdown against a Penn State team that would need to win their last two games just to be bowl-eligible after starting the season highly ranked and predicted to be a CFB Playoff team. Nebraska is bowl-bound at 7-3 and only had one loss this season by more than this spread (a 24-6 loss at Minnesota). An argument could be made that Nebraska is the better team and should be favored, but I’ll gladly take the points (though I wouldn’t talk anyone off taking +250 on the money line).
College Football Best Bet: Nebraska +8
#20 Tennessee at Florida (+4)
Saturday, 7:30 p.m. ET
Tuley’s Take: Florida is 0-3 under interim coach Billy Gonzalez since firing Billy Napier last month. The Gators nearly upset Ole Miss last week, but still covered for us at +12 in their 34-24 loss. That was on the road, as was their prior loss at Kentucky, but I prefer to look at their last two home games: a 29-21 upset of then-#9 Texas back on Oct. 4 and a narrow 24-20 loss to No. 5 Georgia on Nov. 1. #20 Tennessee (7-3) has more to play for, but give me the live underdog trying to salvage its season in front of the home fans.
College Football Best Bet: Florida +4
For more college football Week 13 best bets and analysis, visit the College Football Week 13 hub, exclusively on VSiN.
