Tuley’s Takes – Week 14 College Football Best Bets, Picks and Predictions:
College football Week 13 was certainly unlucky in the Tuley’s Takes home office (though, if we’re going to be superstitious, I’d prefer to blame McDonald’s for not bringing the McRib to southern Nevada this holiday season).
I went a woeful 0-4 ATS with our college football plays last week and was only really close on USC +10.5 in a 42-27 loss at Oregon to go with blowout losses by Temple +10, Nebraska +8 and Florida +4. For the record, that drops us to 25-29 ATS on the season.
We were understandably gunshy heading into this final weekend of the regular season, so I didn’t have any plays I liked on the Black Friday card. But let’s try to get back on the winning track with four (hopefully) live dogs on Saturday to gain some momentum into Championship Week as well as the CFB Playoffs and bowl season.
#14 Vanderbilt (+3) at #19 Tennessee
Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET
Tuley’s Take: #19 Tennessee (8-3) is favored despite being ranked lower, but we believe that’s only due to the supposed home-field advantage. Otherwise, we can make the argument that #14 Vanderbilt (9-2) should be favored and is having a better season. I’ve also liked Vandy QB Diego Pavia (2,924 passing yards, 26 TDs, only six INTs) since he was at New Mexico State. He also leads the Commodores with 661 yards running and eight more TDs. I’ll take him over Tennessee QB Joey Aguilar (3,145 yards and 23 TDs, but 10 INTs). I’ll gladly take the points, but also looking at the money line at +130.
College Football Best Bet: Vanderbilt +3
Florida State (+1) at Florida
Saturday, 4:30 p.m. ET
Tuley’s Take: Florida started the season ranked #15 and has been a major disappointment, before and after the firing of Billy Napier, as the Gators are 3-8 and won’t go bowling. As mentioned above, I lost with Florida last week and have no trouble fading them here, even though some will argue they’ll try to close the season on a winning note and play spoiler by keeping Florida State from becoming bowl-eligible. But I’ll take the Seminoles to get the job done. I’m not a fan of backing teams in “must-win games” (since I usually argue that if a team could “flip the switch” and win on demand, they wouldn’t be in this spot). The Seminoles have the better defense, plus QB Tommy Castellanos and the FSU offense should have more success against a Florida defense that has allowed 31 or more points in its last three games.
College Football Best Bet: Florida State +1
Virginia Tech (+8.5) at #18 Virginia
Saturday, 7 p.m. ET
Tuley’s Take: Virginia started the season unranked and has pretty much flown under the radar but is 9-2 overall and 6-1 in the ACC with a shot at the conference championship game next week. But here is where I like the team playing spoiler, especially with an in-state rivalry game. And let’s not forget we’re getting more than a TD, so Virginia Tech doesn’t need to win but just stay within one score. The Hokies are down this year, but have dominated this series for two decades at 19-1, as well as going 3-0 ATS as an underdog and covering the last four years. I know this Virginia team is better than most of those Cavalier teams, but they look like a vulnerable favorite to me without LB Kam Robinson, who tore his ACL two weeks ago in the win at Duke.
College Football Best Bet: Virginia Tech +8.5
#10 Alabama at Auburn (+6)
Saturday, 7:30 p.m. ET
Tuley’s Take: Speaking of rivals playing spoiler … we’ve seen this movie before with Auburn vs. Alabama. The Crimson Tide is 9-2 and aiming for the SEC title game and a potential CFB Playoff first-round bye, while Auburn is a disappointing 5-6, though the Tigers have the added incentive of trying to get to bowl eligibility. Despite its lofty record, Alabama isn’t the dominant team we’re used to seeing from the Nick Saban era, and this won’t be the cakewalk that the 56-0 rout of Eastern Illinois was last Saturday (a typical cupcake before the big rivalry game). Before that, Bama lost to Oklahoma when they were ranked #4, and before that, won a close 20-9 battle with LSU. Auburn can give them a similar game with a strong defense that can keep them in it just like they did in a 16-10 loss at Texas A&M.
College Football Best Bet: Auburn +6
For more college football Week 14 best bets and analysis, visit the College Football Week 14 hub, exclusively on VSiN.
