Tuley’s Takes – Week 2 College Football Best Bets, Picks and Predictions:
After waiting so long for “real football” to return, we were disappointed here in the Tuley’s Takes home office with College Football Week 1. We went 1-3 ATS with our “takes” last weekend, starting with losses last Friday on Colorado +4.5 vs. Georgia Tech and Sam Houston +10 vs. UNLV, then lost on Texas +1.5 (that really turned into a public dog, unfortunately, after we were pot-committed as we also gave it out at +3 in the VSiN College Football Betting Guide back in July) before finally getting in the win column with Toledo +10 covering in a 24-16 straight-up loss at Kentucky.
But, hey, if we’re only going to win one game, we always want it to be the last one of the weekend, so we have at least some positive momentum heading into the next week.
So, let’s get to CFB Week 2 with our “dog or pass” plays. There are still too many FBS vs. FCS mismatches than I care for with huge spreads, so I have just four CFB plays this Saturday.
Iowa (+3.5) vs. Iowa State
Saturday, Noon ET/ 9 a.m. PT
In this longtime intrastate rivalry, it’s usually been Iowa State as the overlooked live underdog, but the tables have turned with the Cyclones favored. Iowa State is now ranked No. 16 and is the better overall team at 2-0 with a hard-fought 24-21 win vs. Kansas State in Week 0 and a 55-7 rout of FCS’ South Dakota, so we understand why ISU is favored. However, we’ll fade that change with the Hawkeyes, who you know are going to bring the defense for coach Kirk Ferentz like they already did after allowing an early TD to Albany in their home opener last week before coasting to a 34-7 victory.
Iowa is also 12-1 SU and 9-4 ATS in their last 13 road openers, according to legendary handicapper Marc Lawrence of playbooksports.com. Iowa is a bit of a scary play if the passing game doesn’t improve, but we’re assuming this is going to be a low-scoring battle (Over/Under of 43) that comes down to a field goal either way. In fact, I’m so confident that we’ll add Under 43 as a second play. I wouldn’t talk anyone out of doing an Iowa +3.5/Under 43 parlay as we believe they’re correlated..
College Football Best Bet: Iowa +3.5 and Under 43
Missouri State (+9) vs. Marshall
6 p.m. ET/3 p.m. PT
Both teams are coming off solid seasons (Marshall was 10-4 and won the Sun Belt while Missouri State was 8-4 in the Missouri Valley). Marshall lost head coach Charles Huff and so many starters in the transfer portal that the program opted out of facing Army in the Independence Bowl. Both teams were throttled in their openers, which wasn’t any surprise as Marshall lost 45-7 to No. 5 Georgia and Missouri State was blown out 73-13 by USC. Missouri State showed a little more offense in its loss, though admittedly against a weaker defense, so I think the line is too high here.
College Football Best Bet: Missouri State +9
Texas State (+4) vs. UTSA
Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET/12:30 p.m. PT
In Week 1 of the inaugural SuperContest College contest at the Westgate (I went 4-3 and 3-4 on my two entries so it coulda been worse), my fourth loss on my second card was on Eastern Michigan +14 vs. Texas State. Even though I was bummed to lose, I did see that Texas State has a nice little team led by QB Brad Jackson (214 yards passing, four TDs) and RB Lincoln Pare (167 yards, one TD) and WR Beau Sparkas (seven catches, 82 yards, all four TD receptions). This is also a play against UTSA, which was among the “Bowler Blues” teams from Lawrence’s Playbook. Those teams fit a longtime system of bowl teams that won seven or games the previous season and lost their season opener and then are 94-114-4 ATS (45.2%) in CFB Week 2. We really like Texas State to keep this close and possibly pull the minor upset.
College Football Best Bet: Texas State +4
Western Kentucky (+7) vs. Toledo
Saturday, 7 p.m. ET/4 p.m. PT
I know Toledo was our lone winner last weekend, and we’re grateful to the Rockets; however, I wasn’t too impressed with the preseason MAC favorites in their loss (albeit a point-spread cover) at Kentucky. Plus, they also fit that same “Bowler Blues” trend with the straight-up loss and are now laying more than a TD, so I’m willing to fade them here. Longtime readers might also remember how well we did with Western Kentucky’s Bailey Zappe a few years ago and the Hilltoppers still have an elite passing game now featuring QB Maverick McIvor (what a great name, right?), who went 33-for-51 for 401 yards and three TDs in a 41-24 win vs. Sam Houston State and 24-for-31 for 305 yards and five TDs in a 55-6 rout vs. North Alabama. So, WKU is already 2-0 and a live dog as they’re certainly capable of matching Toledo score for score and keeping it a one-possession game.
College Football Best Bet: Western Kentucky +7
For more college football Week 2 best bets and analysis, visit the College Football Week 2 hub, exclusively on VSiN.
