Tuley’s Takes – Week 3 College Football Best Bets, Picks and Predictions:
We were much happier with College Football Week 2 than Week 1 here in the Tuley’s Takes home office. After skipping Week 0, we went a disappointing 1-3 ATS in Week 1 with our Best Bets here, but rebounded by going 4-1 ATS (including one total) in Week 2. The wins were on Iowa +3.5 in a 16-13 loss at Iowa State (we hope our early readers got the hook as it closed +3 everywhere, plus an easier win on the Under 43, Texas State +4 in 43-36 upset at UTSA and Missouri State +9 in 21-20 upset at Marshall. The loss was on Western Kentucky +7 in a 45-21 loss at Toledo.
That brought our overall CFB record back up to 5-4 ATS (55.5%). We’ll try to build on that this weekend as we again try to step through the minefield of FBS vs. FCS mismatches with huge spreads and find live underdogs in more competitive spots.
#18 South Florida (+17.5) at #5 Miami (FL)
Saturday, 4:30 p.m. ET/1:30 p.m. PT
I was thrilled to go 4-1 in this column as I felt I did a good job of weeding out my weaker plays, but the last game I dropped was South Florida +17.5 at No. 13 Florida. Fortunately, I used it in my SuperContest College entry that went 5-1-1 as the Bulls easily covered and pulled the 18-16 outright upset. (One of my favorite old betting jokes is “It’s hard to cover -17.5 when you only score 16 points.”) That improved South Florida to 12-6 ATS against schools from Florida the past dozen years and 8-1 ATS as a dog of 17 points or more. I know trends like this always reverse at some point, but I can’t pass this up when given this much wiggle room. I can’t help but feel oddsmakers (and the public since they haven’t bet this line down at all, in fact, it’s risen to 18 at Circa Sports) are underrating this USF team even after they also pulled an outright upset of No. 25 Boise State in Week 1, and that was even less of a fluke as they routed the Broncos. The Hurricanes might be the real deal with transfer QB Carson Beck and a 27-24 win over Notre Dame under their belts, but I’ll take my chances that USF’s Byrum Brown and Co. can stay within two TDs and a FG.
College Football Best Bet: South Florida +17.5
Florida (+7) at #3 LSU
Saturday, 7:30 p.m. ET/4:30 p.m. PT
We talked above about fading Florida against South Florida last week, but now they’re in the underdog role by a touchdown against SEC rival LSU, which comes in ranked No. 3 in the country at 2-0 after upsetting No. 4 Clemson 17-10 in the season opener and beating its lesser in-state rival Louisiana, 23-7. As embarrassing as Florida’s loss was to USF and putting coach Billy Napier on the hot seat, I don’t think the line should be this high. It’s not like Garrett Nussmeier, a top Heisman Trophy contender coming into the season and still around 10-1, has been putting up video game numbers, plus the Gators’ defense has allowed just 18 points in two games, so this could be one of those low-scoring SEC slugfests where the point spread should be in play.
College Football Best Bet: Florida +7
Pittsburgh at West Virginia (+7.5)
Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET/ 12:30 p.m. PT
Pitt is 2-0 while West Virginia is 1-1 after coming off a 17-10 loss at Ohio last week as a 3-point road favorite, but I really think the Mountaineers were caught looking ahead to the “Backyard Brawl” – and it’s not that rare for MAC teams to jump up and bite Power 5 teams in such a spot. We’re getting more than a TD with the home underdog in this rivalry game. The dog is usually live in this series as they’re 5-2-1 ATS in the last eight meetings. Pitt has the better QB, but I’ll take the WVU ground game, which is averaging 232.5 yards in its first two games, led by Jaheim White with 133 yards and three TDs. And the Mountaineers’ defense looks decent with just 20 points allowed, even with the loss, while the Panthers have allowed 26 points against lesser competition.
College Football Best Bet: West Virginia +7.5
#16 Texas A&M (+6.5) at #8 Notre Dame
Saturday, 7:30 p.m. ET/4:30 p.m. PT
Notre Dame lost its opener 27-24 at Miami (FL), and this is only the Fighting Irish’s second game. Obviously, I know Notre Dame rebounded from an early loss last season to my alma mater, Northern Illinois, only to make the CFB Playoff and get to the championship game before losing to Ohio State. So, I’m sure the players feel they can still turn their season around. However, they get another tough test in the home opener with Texas A&M at 2-0 after taking care of business with a 42-24 home win vs. UTSA and a 44-22 home win vs. Utah State before making this first road trip of the season. We did lose some point-spread value as this probably would have been well over a TD if the Irish had beaten the Hurricanes, but I still believe A&M is the right side to keep this within a field goal or pull the upset with dual-threat QB Marcel Reed (getting some love at 31-1 to win the Heisman Trophy at Circa Sports) already 41-for-62 (66.1%) on the young season for 509 yards and seven TDs with not a single interception while also leading the Aggies with 105 rushing yards and another TD.
College Football Best Bet: Texas A&M +6.5
For more college football Week 3 best bets and analysis, visit the College Football Week 3 hub, exclusively on VSiN.
