Tuley’s Takes – Week 3 College Football Best Bets, Picks and Predictions:
Week 2 of the college football season was much better in the Tuley’s Takes home office. After going 0-4 ATS in Week 1, we bounced back by going 3-1 ATS last Saturday with Michigan (+5.5) beating Oklahoma outright, 17-10; California +3.5 also upset Syracuse, 21-18; and Iowa State +14.5 covered in a 16-13 loss at Iowa. I was obviously proud of the two outright upsets (especially Michigan, which was also a patent-pending “Tuley Cover,” which longtime readers know that means they not only won straight-up but also won by more points than they were getting!), but my most proud handicapping moment was when I wrote of the Iowa State-Iowa game: “This could be similar to last year’s 16-13 game, so again we’ll gladly take the two-touchdown head start,” so we basically called the score, though the main point was we felt the line was way too high for that matchup.
Our only setback was Minnesota +1 in a 38-13 loss vs. Mississippi State, but we’ll take it as we improved to 3-5 ATS overall and hope to get to profitability soon. Let’s get to the CFB Week 3 Saturday card with our “dog or pass” plays.
North Carolina (+3.5) at Clemson
Obviously we’ve all heard a lot of jokes about Bill Belichick, but he’s still a Hall of Famer (despite not getting in on the first ballot) and can still coach. He has the Tar Heels off to a 2-0 start, and Clemson’s Dabo Swinney has actually been the butt of more jokes this year after his team’s season-opening 51-10 loss at LSU. Clemson did win its second game, but only 22-7 over Georgia Southern, failing to come anywhere near covering as 20.5-point home favorites as the offense continued to struggle. Belichick’s defense has allowed only 13 points in 15-10 and 35-3 wins over TCU and East Tennessee State, so I expect that to continue. Even though the Tar Heels’ offense isn’t the strongest, I don’t think this will be as low-scoring as the Iowa State-Iowa game last week, but it should be tight and could come down to a field goal either way. Besides, I’m not sure the right team is favored, but I’ll gladly take the bonus points.
College Football Best Bet: North Carolina +3.5
Stanford (+10) at Duke
Duke comes in 2-0 with wins over Tulane and Illinois, while Stanford is 1-1 with an expected win over Hawaii and an expected loss vs. No. 7 Miami (FL). No shame in that, which is why I’m a little surprised this line is so high. Even though Duke beat Tulane by 14 in a similarly lined game (-9.5), the Blue Devils usually don’t win games by margin as 11 of coach Manny Diaz’s 20 wins have been one-score games. I liked Stanford +9.5 when the lines for the SuperContest College contest came out and like it better as it’s been bet up to double digits when I felt it shouldn’t have been more than a touchdown to begin with. The Cardinal was obviously dominated by the Canes, but the offense should be OK with Michigan transfer QB Davis Warren. There’s no stud receiver (tight end Benji Blackburn leads the team with 12 receptions for 101 yards so far), but the ground game should have more success as it did against Hawaii as opposed to Miami. But maybe the main reason I like Stanford to stay in this game is that while Duke’s strength is the running game, run defense is another Stanford strength. This definitely looks like a one-score game, which works for our purposes here.
College Football Best Bet: Stanford +10
Mississippi State (+4) at South Carolina
As stated in the intro, my only CFB loss last week was Minnesota at Mississippi State. I wasn’t really fading the Bulldogs as I knew they had a pretty good team, but I felt the Golden Gophers matched up well with them. They did not. Mississippi State dominated start to finish and really impressed me, and I love that I’m getting them with points here at South Carolina. Now, I’m not necessarily fading the Gamecocks here either, though they are coming off easy wins against two cupcakes in Kent State (57-0) and Towson (45-9) heading into the SEC opener for both teams. South Carolina is dangerous with QB LaNorris Sellers, but the most impressive thing about MSU’s win was shutting down Minnesota’s Drake Lindsey until it was too late, as the Bulldogs led 28-6 at halftime and coasted. Kamario Taylor can win the QB battle again, and he might not even need to with Mississippi State’s balanced attack as they had 252 rushing yards and 227 passing yards in beating Minnesota.
College Football Best Bet: Mississippi State +4
Virginia Tech at Maryland (+3)
Both teams come into this nonconference game at 2-0, so I guess that makes it a big game. And longtime readers know how I feel about first-year Virginia Tech coach “Big Game James” Franklin. In case you’ve been living under a rock, that nickname is ironic/sarcastic. Handicapper Marc Lawrence of playbooksports.com points out that Franklin is 3-11-2 ATS in his coaching career against undefeated teams and 0-4-1 ATS when that team is coming off a SU/ATS win (plus Maryland has won a national-best 20 straight nonconference games, though many of those against smaller schools). Virginia Tech was impressive in its 44-21 win over Old Dominion and is part of the reason the Hokies are short road chalk, but Maryland has only allowed 14 points in its two wins, so I’m counting on the defense keeping this close and putting us in position for Franklin to choke and the Terps to pull the outright upset.
College Football Best Bet: Maryland +3
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