College Football Week 3 Best Bets, Predictions and Picks from Steve Makinen:
Last week, I went with 18 games on my college football best bets column and ended up 9-9 ATS. I had some bad losses in getting behind the likes of Oregon, UNLV, and Minnesota, all of whom lost their point spreads by over four touchdowns. However, I also had some very tough losses, with Syracuse failing to both win and cover despite outgaining Cal by almost 200 yards, and then, of course, there was Texas, who beat Ohio State in stunning comeback fashion but failed to cover the -1.5. So, in the end, things could have been better; they could have been worse. I guess you get what you deserve. For the season, I am now 21-17-1 ATS, good for 55.3%. As we get ready for Week 3 on the 2026 schedule, hopefully you had a chance to look over this week’s VSiN College Football Analytics Report, as well as my final Stability Systems piece of the season, as that analysis only goes through Week 3. Early in the week, I saw several lines that stood out immediately to me as games I would be playing. You will find those games and explanations on my plays for this week below. Good luck with your Week 3 CFB betting!
Friday, September 18, 2026
Miami (FL) at Wake Forest (+20.5)
After a couple of dominant performances, Miami and new QB Darien Mensah are the darlings of bettors everywhere. If you had the chance to see the Hurricanes last week against the high school-level competition Florida A&M provided, you could be one of those people who have bought in. The 77-7 score may not even have sold the level of blowout enough. However, I have a system that says prolific offensive performances don’t last: FBS teams that gain 735 or more yards offensively in their prior game have gone just 33-47 ATS (41.3%) in the follow-up contest since 2012.
You could probably argue as well that the Stanford win in the opener was even more impressive. However, if you ask me, laying 24.5 points at Stanford, a team off a 4-8 season, is nowhere near the same as laying 20.5 at Wake Forest, a team off a 9-4 season and one that has put up 38 points in back-to-back weeks. Not surprisingly, the betting public is all over Miami here, with 86% of the handle at DraftKings on that side of the ledger. Well, going back to the start of the 2022 season, when more than 75% of the handle was on a particular side of an ATS wager, this majority group has gone just 612-675 ATS (47.6%). This angle has produced consistently over the last four seasons, and blindly fading these majority bettors during this span who have given you a small profit in four straight years.
College Football Best Bet: I’ll step out on a limb here and go with Wake Forest to cover the +20.5
Saturday, September 19, 2026
Coastal Carolina at Delaware (-4.5)
For as unstable as the Coastal Carolina program looked heading into the 2026 season, I’m a bit taken aback to see the Chanticleers sitting at 2-0 ATS so far. That said, in the first 20 minutes versus West Virginia, they looked totally overmatched, and against Fordham last week they tried extra hard to get the cover. I think Week 3 is where the instability finally shows on the road against a Delaware team that is much more stable and was very competitive at Vanderbilt last week.
The Blue Hens have 12 starters back, including stud QB Nick Minicucci, as well as their full coaching staff. For my long-running stability system, we know to Play ON any team with a STABILITY SCORE EDGE of 6+ in non-conference games in the first four weeks of the season (Weeks 0, 1, 2, 3), assuming the game does not have a point spread of -30 or higher for either team. (351-242 SU and 317-264-12 ATS, 54.6% since 2013). This is an underrated difficulty game for CCU, and the point spread is modest.
College Football Best Bet: Give me Delaware -4 to take down Coastal Carolina
Kent State (+52.5) at Ohio State
After Ohio State’s loss to Texas last week, bettors naturally assumed the next team in line would take the brunt of the Buckeyes’ frustration. Naturally, bettors at DK have flocked to OSU for this one, 96% on handle, 87% on bets. Of course, going back to the start of the 2022 season, when more than 75% of the handle was on one side of an ATS wager, that majority has gone just 612-675 ATS (47.6%). Looking back at last week’s collapse in Austin, this system suggests a lasting hangover: Ranked teams coming off a close loss of 7 points or fewer and playing an unranked team are 121-30 SU but just 63-84-4 ATS (42.9%) since December of 2015.
On the other sideline, we have a Kent State team that should be noticeably better than the Ball State MAC team that the Buckeyes clobbered 56-3 in the opener. The Golden Flashes are far more competent at quarterback with junior Dru DeShields running the show. He is known for taking care of the ball and had an 18-3 TD/Interception ratio last year. KSU was a 10-point favorite last week in a 36-15 win over Wofford. This week they are +52.5, thus, CFB teams that see their point spread in one game being at least 52 points worse than the prior game have performed very well in that follow-up contest since 2012, going 105-79 ATS (57.1%).
College Football Best Bet: I’ll go against this MASSIVE spread and back Kent State +52.5
North Carolina at Clemson (Total 43.5)
If head coach Bill Belichick’s team is going to present any real challenge in the ACC this season, it has to be competitive on Saturday at Clemson. While the Tigers haven’t looked very strong in the first two weeks, UNC hasn’t been within double-digits of head coach Dabo Swinney’s team since 2019. I don’t think the Tar Heels will be competitive if the game starts getting higher-scoring, and to me, this could be the type of game where the total can’t be set low enough. UNC pumped in 35 points last week versus ETSU but still underperformed its offensive team total by over 10 points. That came off scoring just 15 in the win over TCU in Dublin.
Let’s face it, this offense is going to have challenges in ACC play. At the same time, they have only allowed 13 points in the first two weeks and should be in good shape against the Clemson offense, which has put up just 32 points in two underwhelming showings. Of course, from an analytics standpoint, with the line at Clemson -3.5, this angle will be in play: Under the total is 71-48-1 (59.7%) in ACC expected-tight matchups (within -3.5 to +3.5 line range) with totals <= 55.5 since 2015.
College Football Best Bet: Give me UNDER 43.5 in Clemson-UNC
North Texas at Texas State (-3)
Inarguably, North Texas has looked far better than Texas State in the first two weeks of the season, with UNT going 1-1 and coming off a rout of UNLV. Meanwhile, Texas State is 0-2 after getting whipped at Texas and then losing a tight one to UTSA. So I ask you, why are the Bobcats favored in the head-to-head contest on Saturday? What gives? Well, maybe North Texas coming into this season with a Stability Score of ZERO is finally going to rear its ugly head. So far, the system on fading teams with scores of 0-6 has done reasonably well: Play against any college football teams with STABILITY SCORES of 0-6 in non-conference games in the first four weeks of the season (Weeks 0, 1, 2, 3) versus teams with higher scores, assuming the game does not have a point spread of -30 or higher for either team (fade record 278-156 SU and 236-193-4 ATS, 55% since 2013).
Plus, it seems that unexpected big games like the Mean Green experienced last week have a mindset-altering impact on the teams, as unexpected blowout games are bad future indicators for both teams: Both college football teams coming off a game which was decided by a margin 38 points or more different from the final point spread, either win or lose, have struggled in the next contest, going just 153-194-1 ATS (44.1%) over the last decade-plus. Don’t be surprised to see TSU put up a big season-saving performance here.
College Football Best Bet: Give me Texas State -3 at home against North Texas
UTEP (+35.5) at Michigan
Coming off two emotional wins to open the season, oddsmakers now seem to expect Michigan to unload on unsuspecting UTEP, as they’ve set the line at -35.5 for Saturday’s contest. First, Michigan has scored only 30 points in its two wins, seven of which were very controversial. Second, UTEP isn’t completely inept offensively; in fact, even in going 2-0 last year, they averaged 23.3 PPG. Last week, the Miners put up 51. Thirdly, Michigan has had tons of trouble covering point spreads at home (8-14-1 ATS) and in non-conference (5-10 ATS) games over the last 3+ years.
There are two nice systems I am also looking at in this contest. Against Michigan, teams coming off an upset win over a Top 15-ranked team are 122-89 SU but just 91-119-1 ATS (43.3%) in the follow-up contest dating back to November 2016. On UTEP, CFB teams that see their point spread in one game being at least 52 points worse than the prior game have performed very well in that follow-up contest since 2012, going 105-79 ATS (57.1%).
College Football Best Bet: I’ll take the +35.5 with UTEP in Ann Arbor
Florida State (+19.5) at Alabama
My best bets have benefited in each of the last two weeks by backing Alabama, which leads me to believe those two blowout wins have contributed greatly to this week’s line versus Florida State ballooning out of control. If you look below the surface, however, in the Tide’s 45-17 win at Kentucky, there are some obvious reasons for concern. They gained just 343 yards of offense and turned the ball over three times. Stud QB Keelon Russell looked a little rattled at times.
Well, FSU held SMU QB Kevin Jennings in check for most of their Labor Day matchup in Tallahassee, a game the Seminoles lost by 3. Since then, rumors of head coach Mike Norvell’s firing have run wild, and I just don’t see why. Let’s not forget, Norvell led FSU to a 31-17 upset of ‘Bama to open the 2025 season. That puts a nice revenge system in place for this one: Teams looking to avenge outright losses where they were double-digit favorites have struggled, going just 118-132 ATS (47.2%) since 2016. I think FSU’s struggles are being massively overstated here, and I don’t expect this one to be a rout.
College Football Best Bet: I’ll go against the public sentiment here by backing FSU +19.5
Mississippi State at South Carolina (-4)
At the outset of the season, the Phil Steele publication had South Carolina projected for ninth place in the SEC. He had Mississippi State pegged for 14th. Since then, both teams have put together convincing wins in their two games. Still, the line for their head-to-head contest doesn’t reflect two different-tiered conference teams squaring off, as South Carolina is a modest 4-point home favorite. It seems that oddsmakers and bettors alike were really swayed by the Bulldogs’ rout at Minnesota last week.
However, with heavy public money at DK on MSU, and my power ratings showing that the Gamecocks should be favored by 7.2 points, I am going to put my money behind the hosts here. After all, South Carolina is 18-11 (62.1%) ATS as a favorite in the last six seasons and favorites are on a 7-0 SU and 6-1 ATS surge in the last seven meetings between Miss ST and SC. If you’re curious, head coach Shane Beamer’s teams are also 16-9 ATS in their last 25 SEC games, and a 56% cover at home in his tenure.
College Football Best Bet: I got South Carolina to cover the -4 vs. Mississippi State
Florida International at Florida Atlantic (-7)
This past offseason, I looked closely at Florida Atlantic and their huge offensive output last year and suggested that, with the bad turnover luck the Owls endured, things could be much improved in 2026 for the program. Well, after a very disappointing season-opening rout loss at Florida, FAU rebounded last week with a huge upset win against Navy. That was a big one for me in potentially securing a season win-total over wager. The Owls should have no letdown or lack of motivation this week as they host rival FIU and look to build on that huge win.
There is, in fact, a Stability Edge for head coach Zach Kittley’s team, as they came back to play in 2026 with 12 starters and a full coaching staff in play. Their Stability Score of 16 trumps FIU’s 10. We know to play on any team with a STABILITY SCORE EDGE of 6+ in non-conference games in the first four weeks of the season (Weeks 0, 1, 2, 3), assuming the game does not have a point spread of -30 or higher for either team. (351-242 SU and 317-264-12 ATS, 54.6% since 2013). Looking at the head-to-head series recently, we see that Florida Atlantic has won and covered their last five instances of hosting FIU.
College Football Best Bet: Give me Florida Atlantic -7 to get another big win over FIU
Marshall (-4.5) at Missouri State
First two week’s results aside, are Marshall and Missouri State on similar levels enough to see a line of just -4.5 attached to their game? If you read any of my preseason work, you’d know that I was pretty down on Missouri State’s prospects for this season after reaching a bowl game in year 1 at the FBS level. To me, that was a massive overachievement last year for head coach Ryan Beard. He, of course, is off to Coastal Carolina now, and left behind a team in total rebuild with a Stability Score of ZERO.
Marshall hasn’t looked strong in 2026, but it does have a Stability Score of 12 for the year, and that stability did help secure a much-needed win over MTSU last week. Still, the Herd is 0-2 ATS and still looking to put together a complete game. This looks like a perect spot for it, as the stability system says to play against any college football teams with STABILITY SCORES of 0-6 in non-conference games in the first four weeks of the season (Weeks 0, 1, 2, 3) versus teams with higher scores, assuming the game does not have a point spread of -30 or higher for either team (fade record 278-156 SU and 236-193-4 ATS, 55% since 2013), including 10-9 ATS last week. Marshall is also 13-8 ATS as road chalk since 2020, and the line for the game is moving towards the Herd despite 86% of the bets going towards the home underdog Bears.
College Football Best Bet: I’ll go with Marshall -4.5 to get it done at Missouri State
Nevada (-3.5) at Middle Tennessee State
Here’s another game where an upper-level G6 conference team takes on a bottom-of-the-barrel G6 conference team and the line doesn’t necessarily reflect it. I have a feeling it has a lot to do with Nevada’s loss to FCS Montana State last week. MSU is no slouch, however, and while Nevada was a 4.5-point home dog, my numbers said it should have been a much higher number. This is a far weaker opponent, and they have already faced a Conference USA team in 2026, a WKU team that was expected to be much better than MTSU this season. The Wolfpack won that contest 49-14.
This game differs in that it is on the road. Still, the line (-3.5) doesn’t come close to what my Power Ratings say it should be, as I have Nevada -7.3. MTSU is 2-0 ATS so far but hasn’t been good in the home underdog role, going 3-7 ATS in its last 10 tries. The Blue Raiders were also just 3-9 ATS in non-conference play heading into this season. Nevada’s loss last week to a FCS team should benefit us here with a better price.
College Football Best Bet: Give me Nevada -3.5 to win at Middle Tennessee State
Florida at Auburn (+2.5)
While both Florida and Auburn rebuilt their coaching staffs this past offseason, the fact that the Tigers maintained some consistency with their defense could serve to benefit them in this huge SEC opener with Florida: New defensive coordinators are 189-227 SU and 191-218-7 ATS (46.7%) in the first four weeks of the CFB season versus returning defensive coordinators since 2021. The Tigers also have one other major advantage in this week’s tilt: they’ve already faced a stiff test from Baylor. Head coach Alex Golesh’s team survived that test in winning 17-16. They then responded by handling Southern Miss easily. It gave Golesh’s star QB Byrum Brown a great look against a quality defense.
Meanwhile, Florida has played two non-competitive games against FAU and Campbell and might not know what it truly has yet. What those blowout wins did do, however, is move the line to a potentially motivating spot for Auburn. By most accounts, the Tigers and Gators were expected to be on par with one another this season, if not Auburn being superior. Being the home dog should fuel them. Plus, underdogs are 5-1 SU and 6-0 ATS in the Gators-Tigers SEC set since 2001.
College Football Best Bet: Should be a great game/atmosphere, I’ll take the +2.5 points with Auburn
West Virginia at Virginia (-10.5)
With both teams sitting at 2-0 and coming off rout wins over FCS opponents, are the experts behind the counter giving us the template for how the West Virginia-Virginia contest will play out by establishing a double-digit line? Most bettors would probably tend to believe that there couldn’t possibly be this much difference between these teams. After all, both are 2-0 and both are fringe contenders in their P4 conferences. However, I don’t think we can overlook the fact that WVU is just 27-40 ATS (40.3%) on the road over the last decade, while Virginia is on a 14-7 ATS run at home under head coach Tony Elliott.
In other words, this game being in Charlottesville could be all the difference, and the price reflects it. Remember what the Cavaliers did to NC State in the opener. Plus, with Virginia coming off a 59-3 rout of Norfolk State, this angle will be in play: Over the course of the last thirteen years, CFB teams that scored 58 or more points in a game while allowing fewer than 10 have carried on the momentum well in the next outing, going 158-118 ATS (57.2%).
College Football Best Bet: I’ll take Virginia -10.5 to win convincingly over West Virginia
New Mexico (+22.5) at Oklahoma
Although the competition wasn’t great, New Mexico has won both of its first two games by a 118-14 margin. This is somewhat of a surprise in that the Lobos lost their starting quarterback for the season before the first game. However, what isn’t at all a surprise is that head coach Jason Eck’s team has continued its resurgence from last season. Simply put, he has this team playing with a different level of confidence now. That makes it particularly shocking to see them put up such a huge point total in Norman this week. This is with the Sooners coming off a humbling and excruciating loss at Michigan last week.
Based upon what happened last week to both teams, we have three systems in place for this game: For New Mexico, 1) CFB teams that see their point spread in one game being at least 52 points worse than the prior game have performed very well in that follow-up contest since 2012, going 105-79 ATS (57.1%). And 2) Over the course of the last thirteen years, CFB teams that scored 58 or more points in a game while allowing fewer than 10 have carried on the momentum well in the next outing, going 158-118 ATS (57.2%). Against Oklahoma, ranked teams coming off a close loss of 7 points or fewer and playing an unranked team are 121-30 SU but just 63-84-4 ATS (42.9%) since December of ’15. There’s no way this new-look New Mexico team goes down hard without a fight.
College Football Best Bet: Give me New Mexico +22.5 in Norman
BYU (-17.5) at Colorado State
Being perfectly honest, I loved the hire of Jim Mora Jr. at Colorado State, and I even more so applaud the results he’s gotten in the first two games so far: his Rams are 2-0 SU and ATS and have outscored the opposition 91-37. That said, the period of college football instability I have studied for the last 15 years or so has been the first three weeks, and I believe this week’s game finally offers a spot where the CSU transition may meet its match. BYU is as stable as it comes and is also off to a 2-0 SU and ATS start.
If something has to give, which it does here, I will almost always lean to the more stable and more talented team. And while I don’t think it will be easy, I believe the Cougars will separate late for the cover. The line says BYU -17.5, my power ratings say that is underpriced by 3.6 points. Plus, we have all the stability systems in play except the total starters of 17+ back. Among those angles, play on any team with a STABILITY SCORE EDGE of 6+ in non-conference games in the first four weeks of the season (Weeks 0, 1, 2, 3), assuming the game does not have a point spread of -30 or higher for either team. (351-242 SU and 317-264-12 ATS, 54.6% since 2013).
College Football Best Bet: It’s BYU -17.5 here for me
LSU at Ole Miss (+3)
There will be plenty of lead-up and hype to this game, perhaps more than any other college football game in the last few years, and it’s not all, of course, because both teams are good. We all know it is much deeper than that. I will leave that side of the story for ESPN to cover in-depth when they get to Oxford this Saturday for College GameDay. Instead, I am going to look at some of the analytics behind the matchup between LSU and Ole Miss, and focus on why the line is where it is as opposed to where it probably should be.
First, the rankings say the Tigers are the #7 team in the country, while Ole Miss is #8. Why the Tigers passed the Rebels since the outset of the season simply comes down to LSU throttling Clemson at home in an emotionally supercharged Lane Kiffin-era opener a couple of weeks ago. That same week, Ole Miss took down a tough Louisville team in a neutral contest. No harm, no foul, I say, so are the rankings warranted. If not, why is LSU a road favorite? We have to consider that in games featuring two ranked teams since 2017, home teams are now 222-115 SU and 192-136-9 ATS (58.5%). Home teams are also on an 11-2 SU and 12-1 ATS surge in LSU-Ole Miss SEC showdowns.
If that weren’t enough, Ole Miss is 4-0 (100%) ATS as a home underdog since 2021. This is officially a revenge game for LSU since Ole Miss won the head-to-head game 24-19 last year. However, which team really has the revenge motivation here, given what has transpired with Kiffin?
College Football Best Bet: Give me Ole Miss +3 but wouldn’t be shocked if LSU wins and/or we push
Purdue at UCLA (-14)
In my season win total Over wagers for 2026, I included UCLA, as I raved about how much better coached the Bruins would be and about how much starting experience they would have in place for this season. In essence, while the coaching staff changes were significant, this team was not in an unstable transition state like a lot of other teams. Frankly, I am not surprised to see head coach Bob Chesney’s team off to a fantastic 2-0 SU and ATS start, and I am putting my money behind them going to 3-0 after this week. Why?
For one, they are at home, where I figure their home-field advantage will be getting a big boost again, after empty stadiums the last few years. For two, we need to continue riding the 17+ starter system for this final week: Teams with 17+ total returning starters are 118-89 SU and 116-89-2 ATS (56.6%) in the first four weeks of the CFB season versus teams returning 16 or fewer since 2021 (including 10-0 SU and 8-2 ATS the last two weeks). And finally, with Purdue traveling cross-country after an excruciating OT loss to Wake Forest last week, the Boilermakers are stepping in front of a tough system: Road teams in conference games coming off very close losses of less than 3 points have struggled lately, 87-117 ATS (42.6%) since 2011.
College Football Best Bet: Give me red-hot UCLA -14 to take care of Purdue handily
For more College Football Week 3 best bets, visit the College Football Week 3 hub, exclusively on VSiN.com.
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