Tuley’s Takes – Week 4 College Football Best Bets, Picks and Predictions:
We’re onto Week 4 of the college football season, which for years has been a pivotal week in the Tuley’s Takes home office.
Longtime readers of my column may remember me talking about my ViewFromVegas.com Forums member and friend tpking (he owned an apartment supply company in San Antonio), who sadly passed away this past January. But he would always say his Legendary Math Model, which I used to weed out my weaker underdog leans, didn’t really hit its stride until Week 4 each year. In earlier weeks, the LMM had to use stats from last season, but by Week 4, there’s enough current data to better analyze this year’s teams. So, as much as we try to make good bets in the first couple of weeks, it’s no surprise that we’ve mostly been trading money.
After going 4-1 ATS two weeks ago, my Best Bets in this “CFB takes” column split 2-2 ATS last Saturday with wins on West Virginia +7.5 vs, Pittsburgh (the Mountaineers pulled off the upset, 41-34, in OT) and Texas A&M +6.5 at Notre Dame (another outright upset, 41-40, in South Bend) but losses on South Florida +18 at Miami-Fla. (never really close in 49-12 rout) and Florida +7 at LSU (that was the gut-wrencher and the “one that got away” in a hard-fought 20-10 loss).
That leaves us at 7-6 ATS (53.8%) on the CFB season, barely profitable at +0.4 units, though I am 13-7-1 (65%) in SuperContest College at the Westgate, so I wish I had been giving out my secondary plays as they’ve somehow gone 6-1-1 ATS.
But the goal here is to be selective with our strongest “dog or pass” takes, so we’ll trust the process. I have four (hopefully) live dogs I like again Saturday.
West Virginia (+13) at Kansas
Saturday, 6 p.m. ET/3 p.m. PT
I loved our play on West Virginia last week and was impressed by how the Mountaineers not only covered but beat Pitt in OT. Now, they’re getting even more points against a Kansas team that beat up Fresno State and Wagner before losing 42-31 at Missouri two weeks ago in the “Border War” in its first game of the season against a Power 5 school. Now, the Jayhawks are being asked to blow out a decent West Virginia squad? Thanks for the added points. Besides, Marc Lawrence of playbooksports.com points out that WVU has 13 sacks and coach Rich Rodriguez adds transfer portal pass rusher Jimmori Robinson, plus Kansas is 1-4 ATS the last five seasons after its first loss. I’m counting on Kansas to fail to bounce back again this year, or at least not win by two TDs.
College Football Best Bet: West Virginia +13
South Carolina (+9.5) at #23 Missouri
Saturday, 7 p.m. ET/4 p.m. PT
I downgraded Kansas for its loss to Missouri, mostly because I didn’t come away too impressed with the Tigers from Mizzou even though they continue to climb the polls (they followed up the win vs. Kansas with a 52-10 rout of Louisiana last week). South Carolina was a Top 25 team itself before its embarrassing 31-7 loss vs. Vanderbilt last Saturday. Gamecocks QB LaNorris Sellers was injured early in that game, but his status for this week has been continually upgraded, so I’m counting on him to be good to go. I missed the +10, but again I see the line move as a sign that “someone” knows Sellers will play. Even if he doesn’t, backup Luke Doty gained valuable game experience against Vandy.
College Football Best Bet: South Carolina +9.5
Florida (+7.5) at #4 Miami (FL)
Saturday, 7:30 p.m. ET/4:30 p.m. PT
I’m leery of backing Florida again after the Gators came up short of covering for me against LSU last Saturday. The Gators’ season can go one of two ways here: either they use that strong albeit losing performance at LSU to still have a solid season and get coach Billy Napier off the hot seat, or they fall apart (like we saw Florida State do last year after early losses snowballed). I’m counting on the former. I’m also fading Miami (FL), after the ‘Canes made a loser of my South Florida bet last week, but I saw quite a bit of both these two teams’ games to be confident that Florida has a much better defense than USF and can hang with the U.
College Football Best Bet: Florida +7.5
#9 Illinois (+6.5) at #19 Indiana
Saturday, 7:30 p.m. ET/4:30 p.m. PT
Illinois vs. Indiana in prime time? Is college basketball season starting already? Nope, these perennial Big Ten also-rans are meeting as ranked teams for the first time since 1950. I know the Hoosiers are at home, but I’m still surprised to see them favored by this much, especially with Illinois actually ranked higher (though I know oddsmakers don’t put too much stock in rankings when setting their numbers). I’m reminded of the old saying, “I’ve seen this movie before!”
What I mean is, Indiana opened the season with a 27-14 win over Old Dominion and followed up with 56-9 and 73-0 routs of Kennesaw State and Indiana State, but this has happened several times over the years where Indiana beats up on weaker teams and then gets run over when the Big Ten season starts. When Michael Penix Jr. started his college career in Indiana, it was one of the few times the Hoosiers fared as well in conference play. At least Illinois routed Duke 45-19, and that was a good road test that makes me think they can pull the upset here in Bloomington.
College Football Best Bet: Illinois +6.5
For more college football Week 4 best bets and analysis, visit the College Football Week 4 hub, exclusively on VSiN.
