Tuley’s Takes – Week 4 College Football Best Bets, Picks and Predictions:
The roller-coaster ride of the college football season continued last week in the Tuley’s Take home office. After going 3-1 ATS in Week 2, we stumbled last Saturday, going 1-3 ATS in Week 3. Our only win was Mississippi State (+4) beating South Caroline outright, 41-34, with losses on North Carolina +3.5 (that was a Bad Beat after a long weather delay), Stanford +10 (that was an ugly loss, 35-7 at Duke), and Maryland +3 (lost at home, 35-26, vs. Virginia Tech).
We’re feeling better about Week 4 as we get to know these CFB teams better in the transfer portal/NIL era, and we’ll hopefully find better spots with more conference games and fewer games vs. FCS schools and other mismatches with big spreads in interconference games.
Let’s get to the CFB Week 4 Saturday card with our “dog or pass” plays, starting in the SEC.
#4 Ole Miss (+3.5) at #21 Florida
I wish I had picked Ole Miss here last week in its revenge-motivated upset of LSU and former coach Lane Kiffin. But I will back the Rebels here even though I’m hearing a lot of people on Florida and/or expecting Ole Miss to be in a letdown spot. I’m going to sound like a square here saying that Ole Miss is ranked No. 4 while Florida is ranked No. 21 and the Gators wouldn’t be favored if not for home-field advantage. I get why oddsmakers have Florida favored, as their power ratings are pretty close, but I don’t agree with the line being more than a field goal. The Gators are 4-2 in these two schools’ last six meetings, but the Rebels won 34-24 last year at home (with Kiffin and QB Trinidad Chambliss, who was brilliant last Saturday in pulling the upset) and can do it on the road here.
College Football Best Bet: Ole Miss +3.5
#23 Texas A&M (+8.5) at #10 LSU
Both teams are coming off losses in their SEC openers, with the aforementioned LSU losing 32-24 at Ole Miss and Texas A&M getting upset 31-21 at home to Kentucky. Legendary handicapper and frequent VSiN guest Marc Lawrence of playbooksports.com passes on the nugget that teams that have an undefeated season in Week 3 fare far better in Week 4 if on the road as opposed to being at home. That sets up nicely both ways here, plus I’m thrilled to be fading Kiffin and LSU in an anti-swagger spot with A&M’s Marcel Reed (632 yards passing, six TDs, only three INTs) actually playing better than LSU’s Sam Leavitt (732 yards, just three TDs, five INTS), and the Tigers also lost TE Trey’Dez Green and linebacker/safety Dashawn Spears. If this was closer to a FG, I might be passing, but can’t pass up getting more than a TD.
College Football Best Bet: Texas A&M +8.5
South Carolina (+12.5) at #8 Alabama
South Carolina is also in Lawrence’s 4-0 road team system, but I also have no problem fading Alabama, which is a shadow of the juggernaut it was in the Nick Saban era (one of the most obvious victims of the transfer portal/NIL era that Saban fought but has spread out the talent wealth in college football). Yes, I bet against South Carolina last week in my win over Mississippi State, but it wasn’t a play against the Gamecocks as much as it was an endorsement of MSU. I’m actually high on the East Coast USC and QB LaNorris Sellers, who had 282 yards last week and two TDs, though he did throw two key second-half INTs. Basically, I’m counting on Sellers to cut back on the miscues, which should keep the Gamecocks in this the whole game. Just like Texas A&M-LSU, this line just looks too high even with a Top 10 team facing an unranked team.
College Football Best Bet: South Carolina +12.5
Georgia Tech at Stanford (+3.5)
Stanford let me down last week in its loss at Duke. I don’t want to use travel to the East Coast as an excuse, as I certainly knew that going in and was hoping that was part of the reason we were getting so many points at +10. But I do like the Cardinal being back home and getting more than a field goal against a weaker team that is now making the cross-country trip the other way. Stanford, which was held to 73 rushing yards in its 35-7 loss, should have more success against Georgia Tech’s weak run defense (No. 132 in the nation at 223.3 yards per game), especially after having to abandon the run game in the rout. I’m also not a fan of GT’s Alberto Mendoza, who is not as good as his Heisman Trophy-winning older brother.
College Football Best Bet: Stanford +3.5
For more Week 4 college football picks and predictions, visit the Week 4 College Football Hub exclusively on VSiN.com.
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