MLB Picks Today:
Expert baseball handicapper Greg Peterson shares his top MLB picks today for Saturday, September 26.
Check out Greg’s Daily MLB Lines and his Baseball Betting Show Podcast. Also, check out our MLB Betting Splits and tools from our friends at Ballpark Pal, including Strikeout Prop Projections and the MLB YRFI Report.
Our Opta AI MLB Player Prop Projections are also available.
4:05 PM Eastern
New York Mets vs. Washington Nationals
Mets starting pitcher Jonah Tong has a 4.21 ERA this season with 8.8 strikeouts and 4.6 walks per nine innings, with his ERA sitting at 6.29 for his career in a starting role compared to 3.60 out of the bullpen. Nationals starting pitcher Connelly Early has a 3.44 ERA but a much higher 4.60 fielding independent with 1.5 home runs and 3.3 walks per nine innings. He is supported by a bullpen that is 29th in ERA at 5.01, while the lineup is third in scoring with 5.1 runs per game.
Pick: Mets Moneyline -130
Greg’s Handicap: Mets -137
7:10 PM Eastern
Cleveland Guardians vs. Kansas City Royals
Guardians starting pitcher Tanner Bibee is getting a career-low seven strikeouts per nine innings to go with a 4.35 ERA and 1.4 home runs allowed per nine innings. While the Royals offense is last in scoring on the road with 3.6 runs per game, it is seventh at home with nearly 4.9 runs per game. Royals starting pitcher Michael Wacha has a 3.33 ERA but a 4.31 fielding independent with 1.3 home runs per nine innings allowed and only 7.1 strikeouts per nine innings, while being backed up by a bullpen that is 28th in ERA at 5.00.
Pick: Guardians vs. Royals Over 8 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Total 8.6
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago White Sox
The Rockies give José Quintana his second start since the beginning of June, and he has a 5.40 ERA with 4.4 strikeouts and 3.6 walks per nine innings while supplying a 5.70 fielding independent. White Sox starting pitcher Davis Martin has a 3.84 ERA with 7.5 strikeouts and 2.8 walks per nine innings and faces a Rockies lineup that is seventh in scoring with over 4.6 runs per game. The White Sox are fifth in scoring with nearly 4.8 runs per game and face a Rockies bullpen that is 27th in ERA at 4.81.
Pick: White Sox Run Line -1.5 -105 and Over 8 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: White Sox -1.5 -118 and Total 8.7
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Milwaukee Brewers
Brewers starting pitcher Dustin May began the season with the Cardinals, so they are familiar with what he is throwing, and the Cardinals are third in road scoring with 5.2 runs per game. May has a 4.67 ERA, while Cardinals starting pitcher Quinn Mathews has a 3.67 ERA with 7.9 strikeouts and 3.7 walks per nine innings. Mathews faces a Brewers lineup that leads the league in scoring at home with 5.6 runs per game, and the Cardinals rank 22nd in bullpen ERA at 4.45.
Pick: Cardinals vs. Brewers Over 7.5 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Total 8.8
8:40 PM Eastern
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Diego Padres
Padres starting pitcher Walker Buehler overall this season has a 4.56 ERA with 1.3 home runs and 3.4 walks per nine innings, but has been at his best of late, as he has allowed three runs or fewer in 12 straight starts. The Diamondbacks’ starting pitcher has made only three starts this season, allowing five home runs across 10 1/3 innings with nine runs allowed in this stretch. The Padres are third in scoring since the All-Star Break with 5.1 runs per game.
Pick: Padres Moneyline -124 and Over 7.5 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Padres -133 and Total 7.7
