Tuley’s Takes – Week 5 College Football Best Bets, Picks and Predictions:
Well, Week 4 in college football didn’t go as planned in the Tuley’s Takes home office last Saturday.
I went 1-3 ATS with my four “dog or pass” plays here with the lone win on South Carolina +9.5 in a 29-20 loss (so just barely covered) at Missouri and very ugly losses with West Virginia +13 in a 41-10 loss at Kansas, Florida +7.5 in a 26-7 loss at Miami-Fla. and Illinois +6.5 in a 63-10 ass-whooping at Indiana.
That dropped us to a losing record of 8-9 ATS here, and I also went 2-5 ATS in my entry in the Westgate SuperContest College contest to spoil a great start and slip to 15-12-1 ATS.
But as bad as we felt about the blowout losses, we’d rather lose that way than in a close game or a bad beat that we felt should have gone our way. We just have to try better to weed out those “dead dogs” on the card.
Easier said than done, but we push onward to CFB Week 5. Every week is a fresh start. Hopefully, we have four better dogs this Saturday.
Central Florida (+6.5) at Kansas State
Saturday, Noon ET/9 a.m. PT
Let’s start out with getting points in a game between two teams seemingly heading in opposite directions. UCF is off to a 3-0 start with a closer-than-expected 17-10 win over Jacksonville State as 18.5-point home chalk, but then routed North Carolina AT&T 68-7 and North Carolina (with Bill Belichick) 34-9. Junior Tayven Jackson has taken over as the starting QB for the Knights and is an impressive 54-for-77 for three TDs and no INTs. Meanwhile, Kansas State reminds me of Florida State last year, as the Wildcats were #17 in the preseason rankings but have gotten off to a terrible start. I’m not sure if they can recover. They are 1-3 with an understandable 24-21 loss vs. #22 Iowa State, but their only win was a 38-35 narrow victory over North Dakota, followed by two more losses to Army 24-21 and Arizona 23-17. I’m not even sure the right team is favored here, but K-State certainly shouldn’t be favored by nearly a full TD even at home (where they lost to Army, which we all just saw get run and passed over by East Carolina in a 28-6 loss on Thursday night).
College Football Best Bet: Central Florida +6.5
California (+6.5) at Boston College
Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET/12:30 p.m. PT
Both teams are coming off ugly losses as big favorites last week, as Cal was shut out 34-0 by San Diego State and BC lost 30-20 at Stanford after being shut out in the second half. Boston College (1-2) shouldn’t be this big of a favorite over California (3-1). I guess bettors are giving a lot of weight to home-field advantage as 70% of the bets and 91% of the money is on Boston College at Circa Sports, according to the VSiN Betting Splits Page (it’s a more modest 61% and 54% at DraftKings). We’ll fade that action. Despite last week’s debacle, Cal QB Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele had two three-TD games earlier in the season and should bounce back against a BC defense allowing 27.3 points per game (and that’s with allowing only 10 to the FCS’ Fordham in the Eagles’ lone victory to start the season).
College Football Best Bet: California +6.5
Tulsa (+15.5) vs. Tulane
Saturday, 4 p.m. ET/1 p.m. PT
When Tulsa upset Oklahoma State 19-12 last Friday night as 11.5-point road underdogs, I had a lot of fun on Twitter telling the story about how John Cooper (yes, that John Cooper) sent me a recruiting letter when he was coaching Tulsa (before Arizona State and Ohio State) and I was a high school kicker. Unfortunately, he said they didn’t offer scholarships to kickers, but I could earn one if I won the starting job. Anyway, while beating the current OSU program is that big of a deal, I still like that the Golden Hurricane is getting even more points against a 3-1 Tulane team that was blown out 45-10 by Mississippi State last week and didn’t impress me too much in their three wins against lower-level competition: 23-3 at home vs. Northwestern, 33-31 at South Alabama and 34-27 at home vs. Duke. Jake Retzlaff, who seemed like a “good get” for Tulane in the transfer portal, hasn’t lived up to expectations, and the Tulsa defense is allowing just 20.5 points per game and looked solid vs, Okie State. Besides, I liked what I saw from Tulsa QB Baylor Haynes (22-for-36, 219 yards, one TD), and the defense should keep it close enough for him to get the cover.
College Football Best Bet: Tulsa +15.5
#6 Oregon (+3.5) at #3 Penn State
Saturday, 7:30 p.m. ET/4:30 p.m. PT
Is this the Big Ten Game of the Year? Growing up in the Midwest, I’ve always expected Ohio State or Michigan to be in the GOY and usually both around 95% of the time. But here we have two teams not even in the original “Ten.” Oh well, that’s progress, I guess with Penn State ranked #3 and Oregon at #6, plus the game on a White-Out Night in Happy Valley, the oddsmakers had to make the Nittany Lions the favorite, but this is really a coin-flip game to me, so I love getting more than a field goal. In fact, I’m not so sure the Ducks shouldn’t be favored. Both teams have feasted on cupcake schedules, so I keep looking back at their last meeting in the Big Ten Championship Game, which Oregon won 45-37. Of course, that was with Dillon Gabriel (now in the pros with Cleveland) at QB for the Ducks, but Dante Moore has picked up the baton just fine (albeit against weaker competition). In the final analysis, I can’t get past the sarcastic nickname for Penn State’s coach, “Big Game” James Franklin. We’ve seen him fall short in these types of games. Until he can prove he can win a game like this, I’ll take the live dog here.
College Football Best Bet: Oregon +3.5
For more college football Week 5 best bets and analysis, visit the College Football Week 5 hub, exclusively on VSiN.
