Tuley’s Takes – Week 6 College Football Best Bets, Picks and Predictions:
We can’t believe we’re already into October after waiting all spring and summer for football season here in the Tuley’s Takes home office. But here we are.
I split 2-2 ATS with my Best Bets in this weekly CFB column in Week 5 with the victories on California +6.5 in a 28-24 win at Boston College and Oregon +3.5 in a 30-24 OT win at Penn State (so at least both were outright upsets) while the losses were on Central Florida +6.5 in a 34-20 loss at Kansas State and Tulsa +15.5 in a 31-14 loss at Tulane (so close but yet so far).
That leaves our record here at 10-11 ATS on the young season, though I’m somehow 19-15-1 ATS in the SuperContest College contest at the Westgate after going 4-3 last week.
The goal is to hit midseason form here as we get into October with four (hopefully) live underdogs on Saturday.
#14 Iowa State (+1) at Cincinnati
Saturday, Noon ET/9 a.m. PT
We don’t normally think of Iowa State-Cincinnati as a top Big 12 matchup, but here we are with Cincinnati hosting the No. 14 team in the country, with both undefeated in conference play. I can’t get past the feeling the wrong team is favored here (though Cincinnati opened just -1.5 – though keep in mind Circa opened Iowa State -2, so my feeling is they were right all along – but not be favored by kickoff as it’s down to 1 as of this writing on Friday afternoon). Iowa State has the better wins, in my opinion, over Kansas State, Iowa, Arkansas and Arizona. They’ve also been able to go on the road in that Arkansas win, plus the neutral-site opener in Dublin against K-State is also technically away from home. The Cyclones’ defense is allowing just 14.2 points per game, which is impressive when not against a cupcake schedule. We’ll take any points (or point) we can get, but counting on not needing any.
College Football Best Bet: Iowa State +1
Clemson at North Carolina (+14)
Saturday, Noon. ET/9 a.m. PT
OK, we understand that Bill Belichick doesn’t have Tom Brady or a loaded roster like he did in New England, but he’s always been successful off a loss and with a bye/extra time to prepare. So, assuming his mind is on football, we have to take two TDs with him as this might be his last (home) stand if he’s going to stick around Chapel Hill for more than this season. But don’t get me wrong, this is also very much a bet against Clemson, which started the season ranked No. 4 but is just 1-3 with the only win against Troy. The Tigers didn’t cover the spread in that game as they’re 0-4 ATS. Should they really be favored by two TDs over anyone? I don’t think so. I’ll count on Belichick to coach up QB Max Johnson in the battle vs. Cade Klubnik and keep this to one score. In addition, the Over/Under on this game is just 47 points, so it should be a relatively tight, low-scoring game where points are at a premium and a 2-TD margin is a big ask for the chalk.
College Football Best Bet: North Carolina +14
Kansas State (+5.5) at Baylor
Saturday, p.m. ET/ p.m. PT
I unsuccessfully faded Kansas State last week with Central Florida, but we try sometimes to learn from our mistakes. The Jayhawks now look to me like they could rebound from their Aer Lingus College Football Classic loss vs. Iowa State in Dublin, Ireland, and get back in the Big 12 race or at least get bowl-eligible for a successful season even if not meeting their lofty preseason goals when they came in ranked No. 17. Kansas State looked much better in beating UCF with a balanced attack behind QB Avery Johnson (two TD passes) and RB Dylan Edwards (166 yards, plus a TD). The Baylor defense allowed 400 yards in a 27-24 loss vs. Arizona State at home (I feel that’s relevant here). I wasn’t too impressed with their 45-27 win over a down Oklahoma State program. We’ll call for the outright upset here, but still take the points.
College Football Best Bet: Kansas State +5.5
Duke at California (+3)
Saturday, 10:30 p.m. ET/ 7:30 p.m. PT
With Hawaii idle, this is the Saturday late-night “get out game” – unless you prefer Nevada at Fresno State.. One of our winners last Saturday was on Cal in the Golden Bears’ 28-24 upset at Boston College, as they overcame the West Coast-to-East Coast trip. Now we get them as home underdogs with a team of young men heading West. Freshman Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele (1,242 yards passing, eight TDs) looks like another in a line of good QBs at Cal over the years. Duke counters with Darian Mensah (1,573 yards, 13 TDs) and an offense averaging 40.8 points per game against weaker defenses, but the key for me is the Duke D allowing 26.4 points per game (it was 32.3 per game before holding Syracuse to a field goal last week) while Cal’s defense is only allowing 18 points per game. Gimme the live home dog under the Saturday Night Lights.
College Football Best Bet: California +3
For more college football Week 6 best bets and analysis, visit the College Football Week 6 hub, exclusively on VSiN.
