Tuley’s Takes – Week 6 College Football Best Bets, Picks and Predictions:
The turn of the calendar to October made us feel a lot better about the current football season here in the Tuley’s Take home office. After back-to-back 1-3 ATS weeks to close September, we bounced back with a 3-1 ATS record last Saturday with our CFB Best Bets (and 4-0-1 ATS in NFL Week 4). We lost our first play last Saturday with Stanford +14 in a brutal 57-3 blowout at Wake Forest, but then started our hot weekend with wins on Minnesota +6 in a 20-14 outright home upset vs Michigan, Washington +9.5 in a 25-21 loss at USC and San Diego State +8 (went as high as +10) in another outright home upset, 31-29, vs. Texas State despite a mumps outbreak that it seems everyone else was fading. We love when that happens.
As I wrote in the intro to these CFB columns last week, our game plan worked: pass on SEC games and look for more home underdogs. Hopefully it works when applying to these CFB Week 6 plays on Saturday (we’re passing on Georgia a short dog at Alabama, though I still think the Bulldogs are the right side, so take that for what it’s worth).
Indiana at Nebraska (+7.5)
I was thrilled to cash with Indiana to win the national title last year. The Hoosiers obviously lost Heisman Trophy-winning QB Fernando Mendoza to the NFL, but I still picked them at +245 to repeat as Big Ten champs in the VSIN CFB Betting Guide. They’re off to a 5-0 start, with their biggest test so far being a 29-23 non-covering win vs. Northwestern, so they could be a vulnerable favorite here. Nebraska is also 5-0 and hasn’t really been tested, so the Huskers are still unranked, and I’m thinking that could be a motivating factor here as well, especially in front of the home fans in Lincoln. This is also a look-ahead spot for Indiana, which hosts Ohio State next week. I certainly hope the Hoosiers stay undefeated, but I can’t pass up the points here.
College Football Best Bet: Nebraska +7.5
UCLA (+11.5) at Oregon
Sticking in the Big Ten (yes, it still feels strange to type that with these former Pac-12 schools), I understand why Oregon is favored here against undefeated UCLA, but I don’t agree that it should be double digits, especially with QB Dante Moore still out with the concussion he suffered two weeks ago against USC. Granted, backup Dylan Railoa threw for 289 yards and two TDs in relief of Moore as the Ducks pulled away to beat USC 41-27 and should be ready for his first start. UCLA’s running game (averaging 281 yards per game on the ground) should have success against Oregon’s defense (allowing 113 rushing yards per game, No. 9 in the Big Ten). And if the Ducks stack the box, UCLA’s Nico Iamaleave (840 yards passing, four TDs, 2 INTs) has proved serviceable. This is another case where I’m not calling for the outright upset (or betting the money line), but the value is on the dog getting more than a TD and, in this case, more than 10 points.
College Football Best Bet: UCLA +11.5
Syracuse (+9.5) at Virginia
Moving to the ACC, I’ve been trying to figure out why this line has climbed from Virginia -6.5 up to -9.5, considering the Cavaliers lost their second straight game last week, 38-7 at Florida State, after a 3-0 start with its only win over a team with a winning record being the season-opener over NC State. Meanwhile, Syracuse is coming off a thrilling 42-41 OT win at UConn in which new starting QB Amari Odom threw for 335 yards and five TDs, plus ran in the winning 2-point conversion to get the Orange back to .500 at 2-2. I still don’t get the love for Virginia, but I’ll take the bonus points.
College Football Best Bet: Syracuse +9.5
James Madison at Georgia Southern (+7.5)
The Sun Belt usually flies below the radar of most college football bettors, but James Madison is 5-0 and in contention for the Group of Five’s automatic bid in the CFB Playoff, just like when they made it last year before losing to Oregon 51-34. A lot of bettors are again on the James Madison bandwagon, but we’re going to take the points with an underrated Georgia Southern team. Granted, the Eagles are only 2-3, but they’ve outgained their opponents in all five games and are better than their record. This might be their bowl game (though they are 1-0 in the Sun Belt and could get back to .500 with a win and thus be on pace to be bowl-eligible), and I see a closer game than most people think.
College Football Best Bet: Georgia Southern +7.5
Minnesota at Purdue (+2.5)
Back to the Big Ten for the nightcap. As stated in the intro, we cashed with Minnesota last week in its home upset vs. Michigan, but now the Golden Gophers are in the role of favorites, and I’m willing to fade them. I can definitely see a letdown from that win. Meanwhile, Purdue is in a bit of a “swagger” spot after snapping a 19-game Big Ten losing streak with its 24-17 road win at Illinois. The Boilermakers were blown out 49-10 by No. 3 Notre Dame two weeks ago, but no shame in that. But I keep looking back at their two prior losses to Wake Forest and UCLA, 38-36 and 52-38. If they can keep up with those two teams, both of which are better than Minnesota, I have them right there with the Golden Gophers and actually as small favorites. Obviously, I’d prefer to be getting a full FG, but we’ll count on the outright home upset.
College Football Best Bet: Purdue +2.5
For more Week 6 college football picks and predictions, visit the Week 6 College Football Hub exclusively on VSiN.com.
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