College Football Week 6 Best Bets, Predictions and Picks from Steve Makinen:
Even after a 2-0 ATS start on Thursday and Friday, I still managed to finish under .500 for my Week 5 college football best bets, although I got some real bad breaks with the totals in the BGSU-Miami (OH) and Miami (FL)-Clemson games, as well as on the point spread with Auburn and a bad number on Iowa State. That said, I did have some real bad misses too, so in the end, you get what you deserve, right? So, adding 9-10 ATS to my season record brings me to 48-43-3 ATS (52.7%) as we head into what looks like a very loaded Week 6 slate, one that could be dramatically influenced by weather in the southeast part of the country. Be sure to keep track of the forecasts for games in that area, especially if you are interested in the totals.
I will probably stay away from those myself for this column, at least, since we could see some wild total moves up until kickoff. Otherwise, we have a pair of ranked vs. ranked matchups, highlighted by the showdown between Georgia and Alabama, as well as several other top teams facing some potentially tricky road contests. As always, many thanks to the VSiN College Football Week 6 Analytics Report for providing me with the basis for my selections. Thanks for reading and good luck this weekend.
Thursday, October 8, 2026
Missouri State (+2.5) at Western Kentucky
How long until oddsmakers finally give up on a team like Western Kentucky, as the Hilltoppers continue to be respected by those behind the counter? WKU was supposed to be a team capable of competing for the Conference USA title this year. They have been far from that, being outscored 39.6-19.8 on average. Yes, they have faced some tough opponents, but they haven’t competed anywhere near the level of expectation. Now, we are expected to believe they are a favorite over a Missouri State team that is down from last year because of a coaching change but is still competing hard under new leadership.
In their last two outings, the Bears have played very well against SMU and Marshall. My effective play by play numbers tell the true story here, as MSU is playing so much better than WKU that the metric says we should have a road favorite of -8.6 here, not a road dog of +2.5. Plus, with 76% of the handle at DraftKings on MSU, we need to consider that when a 58% or greater majority of the handle has been on road underdogs for an ATS wager since the start of the 2022 season, this majority group has gone 168-150-2 ATS (52.8%). This is also a revenge spot after last year’s bowl-bound Missouri State team lost a tight one, 27-22. Teams seeking revenge against a team that is currently allowing 35 PPG or more have been successful, going 234-183 ATS (56.1%) since 2016.
College Football Best Bet: Give me Missouri State +2.5 as a live dog at WKU on Thursday
South Alabama at Arkansas State (Total 58.5)
South Alabama has played in some shootouts recently, with its last three games producing 76.7 PPG. Arkansas State has done the opposite, with its last three games producing just 37.3 PPG. Clearly, something has to give on the total for Thursday night’s contest in Jonesboro. Typically, I would side with the home team on which team will better control the pace. In this case, I’m also keeping an eye on the fact that oddsmakers have put ASU as the slight home favorite, as there is a solid system indicating we could see a lower game based on the line/total combo: Sun Belt small home favorites/pick ’ems in the PK to -5.5 line range and totals within the 52.5-65 range have had these totals go Under at a 43-20 (68.3%) rate in conference play since 2015. That doesn’t even touch on the fact that Under the total is 8-2 in the last 10 of the Jaguars-Red Wolves Sun Belt series, with all of the last five matchups showing total point production of 44 points or less.
College Football Best Bet: Let’s go UNDER 58.5 in South Alabama-Arkansas State
South Florida at Texas-San Antonio (-7)
There was a lot of optimism before the season for new head coach Brian Hartline and what he could do offensively for USF after coming from Ohio State. It hasn’t really transpired, as take away the 59-point outing versus FCS doormat Delaware State and the Bulls are scoring just 18.5 PPG on the likes of Temple, BGSU, Army, and FIU, not exactly a who’s who of top defenses in college football. This follows a season in which the program put up 40.5 PPG under Alex Golesh.
It makes me wonder whether USF has the horses to keep up with a potent UTSA offense led by senior QB Owen McCown. The Roadrunners typically score very well at home. In their last 31 home contests, they’ve averaged 41.4 PPG and haven’t been held below 20 in any game. Furthermore, the last time they failed to score 20+ points at home was back in 2020. It’s pretty safe to say UTSA will score here, and again, can USF keep up?
As it is, American Athletic favorites in the -7 to -12 line range have gone 117-19 SU and 76-54-6 ATS (58.5%) in conference play since 2015. My effective play by play numbers show that UTSA should be favored by 11.9 here too. And never mind that 56% of the best at DK are on the hosts here, since when the majority of number of bets have backed a team in an ATS wager in non-Saturday games, their record since the start of 2022 is 300-246 (54.9%)!
College Football Best Bet: Let’s lay the 7 points with UTSA on Thursday vs. USF
Friday, October 9, 2026
Wyoming at San Jose State (-6)
One of the first things I noticed on this week’s VSiN College Football Analytics Report was AJ Angles touting an amazing Money Line system in the Wyoming-San Jose State game for Friday night: Favorites of >= 4 points on Mountain West Friday Nights have gone 57-4 SU (~+40.05 units) in conference play since 2016. Let’s assume SJSU wins this game outright. Is there any reason to consider the Spartans won’t cover? Well, first off, both of my Effective Strength models indicate they should be favored by at least 11, as the score models show -11.3 and the yards models show -11.
With the line sitting at -6 and almost 95% of the handle in at DK on SJSU, we must also consider that when a 68%+ majority of the HANDLE was on small home favorites of 7 points or fewer for an ATS wager since the start of the 2023 season, this majority group is 90-73 ATS (55.2%). Let’s not overlook too that Wyoming has not won in four tries at San Jose since they became conference mates, including a 24-14 decision in 2024. Wyoming isn’t good enough to overcome such obstacles this season.
College Football Best Bet: I’ll go with San Jose State -6 to take down Wyoming
Washington State at Utah State (Total 44.5)
Looking back at recent years, a matchup between Washington State and Utah State isn’t one oddsmakers typically priced with a total in the low 40s. However, this year’s offensive numbers probably do warrant a number like 44.5. It seems bettors at DraftKings are seeing through it, as nearly unanimous money is coming in on the Over. Since the start of the 2022 season, on games with totals of 46.5 or lower, 72%+ supermajority number of bets bettors bucking the low total and siding with the Over have gone 219-186 (54.1%).
Now, let’s take a closer look at the stats and see whether or not we can expect an uptick in scoring this week from both teams, since Washington State is currently scoring only 19 PPG and Utah State just 14 PPG. My primary focus is who each team has played, and both have top-40 schedule strengths so far, with a heavy focus on strong defensive teams. In fact, even with those low raw scoring averages, their effective points for averages are actually 26.9 and 24.2 PPG, respectively. And while Washington State plays a little slower this year than in recent years, USU still wants to pick up the tempo. In fact, my effective play by play numbers say this game’s scoring should be in the 53 range.
College Football Best Bet: Give me OVER 44.5 in Washington State-Utah State
Saturday, October 10, 2026
Indiana (-7.5) at Nebraska
Sometimes you have to wonder if the pollsters, despite what looks like absolute SEC bias, perhaps know what they are talking about. Take Nebraska for instance, who is now 5-0 heading into a gargantuan clash with Indiana on Saturday. Should the Cornhuskers be ranked, or is this still the same underachieving program that has doomed multiple coaches in recent history? In truth, this team’s 5-0 record doesn’t even include a single notable win, as every team they have faced is essentially down for 2026.
At the same time, Indiana hasn’t looked like its championship self this season, but it does come off its best win of the year: a 47-15 road rout of Rutgers. Even with a 1-4 ATS mark and playing below expectations, my effective play by play numbers indicate that IU should be favored by 10.4 here. There is certainly a worry here with the Cornhuskers’ recent history in Lincoln too, as Nebraska is 11-18-3 (37.9%) ATS at home in the last 32 games overall, and in the last four “big” games at home, has lost 40-16 to Iowa, lost 21-17 to USC, who is terrible in Big Ten road play, and lost 30-27 to Michigan. They were 0-2-1 ATS in those games. I simply don’t trust the legitimacy of head coach Rhule’s team at this point, and this is the lowest price of the season on the defending national champs.
College Football Best Bet: I’ll back Indiana -7.5 in Lincoln
Illinois (-2.5) at Michigan State
A simple betting system shows that small road favorites in Big Ten play fare very well: Big 10 road favorites of -4 or less have gone 27-11 SU and 25-13 ATS (65.8%) in conference play since 2021. Two such games are on this week, with Illinois and Minnesota qualifying for the angle. In my opinion, the home team that better suits the cause here is Michigan State, who has completely fallen flat under new head coach Pat Fitzgerald since winning its first two contests. Since then, the Spartans have been outscored 89-26 by Notre Dame, Nebraska, and Wisconsin.
The Illini have also lost back-to-back games but have been one of the most steady road teams in the conference in recent years: Illinois is 20-9 (69%) ATS in road/neutral games since 2021. My effective play by play ratings show that this line is way off too, based upon each of these teams’ five-game starts. That metric indicates Illinois should be a 14.1-point road favorite here. Asking for a field goal instead doesn’t seem like a lot, especially when MSU is a huge public play early (91% handle) at DK.
College Football Best Bet: I’ll back Illinois -2.5 to get a win in East Lansing
North Carolina at Pittsburgh (Total 47.5)
If you didn’t get to see Pitt’s huge win at Virginia Tech last Friday night, unfortunately, you missed Panthers’ starting QB Mason Heintschel going down with an ACL injury. And while Holden Geriner stepped in and did fine, there is a big difference when a team has film on a backup. And the team with the film is proving to be pretty strong defensively under their defensive-minded head coach Bill Belichick. In fact, both teams have been very good defensively early on, with each holding opponents at least 14.7 points below their season averages.
In short, with a backup QB taking on a team that prefers to grind it out with a very tight point spread, this game would seem to have Under written all over it. Bettors seem to agree, with 92% of the handle at DK on that side of the ledger as of Wednesday: Since the start of the 2022 season, on games with totals of 49 or lower, 72%+ supermajority handle bettors siding with the Under have gone 75-59 (56%). There is a concurring ACC angle in play too: Under the total is 73-51-1 (58.9%) in ACC expected-tight matchups (within -3.5 to +3.5 line range) with totals <= 55.5 since 2015. Plus, a ranked team system that screams low-scoring: Unranked teams on the road versus a ranked team and playing as favorites or underdogs of 7 or fewer points have gone 92-59 Under the total (60.9%) dating back to October 2016.
College Football Best Bet: It’s UNDER 47.5 UNC-Pitt for me
USC at Penn State (-1.5)
It’s pretty well known by now how badly USC has performed on the road in Big Ten country, and in fact, USC is 3-16 SU and 2-17 ATS in their last 19 visits to the Eastern or Central time zone. Typically, Beaver Stadium in State College, PA, is one of the tougher environments in the conference too, even if Penn State is down a bit. Are the Nittany Lions really down that far, though, or are the recent losses to Wisconsin and Northwestern more respectable than they look? In my opinion, it is the latter, because in the first three games, head coach Matt Campbell’s team looked pretty darn good.
Can they bring it back here against the Trojans? My effective play by play numbers suggest they can, as those metrics suggest OSU should be favored by -4. They also fit into a nice system being favored here: Unranked teams favored over ranked teams in Power 4 conference games boast a record of 63-30 SU and 52-37-4 ATS (58.4%) dating back to November 2016. The hosts also seem to be getting some good sharp backing, with 81% of the handle at DK on their side versus just 41% of the bets. Since the start of the 2023 season, when 68%+ of the handle was on small home favorites of 7 points or fewer for an ATS wager, that group is 90-73 ATS (55.2%).
College Football Best Bet: Let’s go Penn State -1.5 to get back in the win column over USC
Wake Forest at NC State (+4.5)
After the excruciating loss at Vanderbilt a few weeks ago, I don’t think anyone would have blamed the NC State players if they shut it down for 2026. But instead, head coach Dave Doeren and his veteran squad bucked their chin straps and put together a pair of nice victories, most recently last week as a home dog to Louisville. Now, the Wolfpack gets another home dog opportunity against Wake Forest, a team most prognosticators ranked higher than them in the standings before the season. Furthermore, with similar records last year, they were favored by 7.5 points on the road against an opponent they beat by 10. Has Doeren’s team turned the corner for 2026?
If so, there’s no reason they should be a dog here, and even more reason that 68% of the handle shouldn’t be on the Demon Deacons as road chalk: When the majority of the handle was on road favorites for an ATS wager since the start of the 2022 season, this majority group is just 397-442 ATS (47.3%). If you didn’t know, NC State is 10-2 ATS (83.3%) as a home underdog since 2020. Let’s also not put too much into Wake’s 57-3 rout of Stanford last week, since both college football teams coming off a game which was decided by a margin 38 points or more different from the final point spread, either win or lose, have struggled in the next contest, going just 154-198-1 ATS (43.8%) over the last decade-plus.
College Football Best Bet: I like NC State’s (+3.5) chance at an upset over Wake Forest here
Duke (-7) at Georgia Tech
I’m not sure how much more Duke has to do to earn respect from both pollsters and oddsmakers, as head coach Manny Diaz’s team remains unranked after a 4-0 SU and ATS start in a season following an ACC title run last fall. The most recent win was a 62-7 decision over William & Mary, setting them up for a nice follow-up game here at downtrodden Georgia Tech, who is 0-4 ATS. Over the course of the last 13 years, CFB teams that scored 58 or more points in a game while allowing fewer than 10 have carried on the momentum well in the next outing, going 165-124 ATS (57.1%).
The oddsmakers say this line is Duke -7. My power ratings say it should be -7.7. My effective strength score numbers say it should be -13.7, my effective play by play metric indicates -9.1. All underpriced, which has become typical of this team, which in a way is good, because disrespect tends to fuel teams well.
College Football Best Bet: I’ll back Duke -7 at Georgia Tech
Rice at East Carolina (-10)
After watching Rice put up a good early fight last week at home against UTSA, I suffered buyer’s remorse, as I immediately recalled that I used to have a rule against ever going against the Owls as home dogs. It changed a bit last year under head coach Scott Abell, as they were 1-3 ATS in that role, but I still regretted it. I never had such a problem when they were on the road, and I’m not afraid of going against them in this particular case, especially coming off the near-miss upset last week: Road teams in conference games coming off very close losses of less than 3 points have struggled lately, 87-119 ATS (42.2%) since 2011.
This game also falls into a strong AAC angle on good-sized favorites: American Athletic favorites in the -7 to -12 line range have gone 117-19 SU and 76-54-6 ATS (58.5%) in conference play since 2015. Rice scores just 18 PPG so far, and I never have a problem fading low-scoring teams on the road, especially when most of my numbers agree. Power rating calls for ECU -10.7, effective play by play rating says ECU -10.7, and Bettors’ Ratings say ECU -11.6. Consensus.
College Football Best Bet: Give me East Carolina -10 versus Rice
UCF (+10.5) at Oklahoma State
We have kind of a cool matchup of former Group of 5 stud QBs who are now piloting Big 12 teams lined up for Saturday in Stillwater. UCF’s Keyone Jenkins, who took over a few weeks ago after Alonza Barnett’s hamstring injury, takes on Drew Mestemaker (North Texas) and OSU. Both teams have won three games so far, and the host Cowboys are set up as 10.5-point home favorites.
Even with the Barnett injury, ALL of my metrics indicate that this game shouldn’t be priced any higher than 7.2 points. That is my power rating estimate. My Bettors’ Ratings say OSU -2.3, and my effective yardage ratings say OSU -5.9. So why is it so high, and why are 81% of the bets at DK on the OSU side? To be honest, I don’t know, but I have to assume it’s recency bias, since after its ugly loss at Tulsa to start the season, OSU has ripped off three straight wins while putting up 46.3 PPG.
Head coach Scott Frost’s team has played four pretty tough FBS programs that have combined for a 15-5 record so far, and could be noticeably underrated. Plus, the Knights are in an interesting spot this week: teams playing in the middle game(s) of what winds up being 3+ straight games versus ranked opponents have been quite successful, going 100-79 SU and 109-68-2 ATS (61.6%) dating back to November of 2015.
College Football Best Bet: I’ll back UCF +10.5 to keep it tight versus Oklahoma State
Ball State at Northwestern (-36.5)
You hear the term “letdown” thrown around all the time in college football, and it’s been mentioned as a potential affliction for Northwestern on Saturday against Ball State. However, I counter that when teams aren’t accustomed to huge successes, their chances of a letdown are lower, because they genuinely appreciate each opportunity to show their rigors. In the Wildcats’ case this week, they come off a huge rout of Penn State in their brand-new stadium, Ryan Field. They get a chance to run it back in that intimidating environment, and they do it against one of the worst teams in the country, Ball State, whose only win is over Stony Brook and which is scoring just 13.8 PPG in FBS play.
My effective yards per play numbers show that even this gargantuan line could be higher, as Northwestern is a -45.1-point favorite by that metric. I also don’t feel like we need to worry about the Wildcats getting public backing, as contrary to popular belief, majority handle bettors have been very good when getting behind huge home favorites, specifically those favored by 27.5 points or more. In most cases, I would fear this as a prototypical public bet, but these groups are 99-81 ATS (55%) over the last four seasons. This team has plenty of motivation to continue winning big.
College Football Best Bet: Give me Northwestern to cover the -36.5 vs. Ball State
UAB at Memphis (-14)
In my top college football trends piece I put out prior to the season, I mentioned UAB’s struggles both on the road and in following up victories. On those, UAB is 2-15-1 ATS (11.8%) following up an outright win and 8-18-1 (30.8%) in road/neutral games over the last four seasons. Furthermore, their outright road record dating back to 2022 is 2-24. Simply put, it is very rare for the Blazers to compete away from home. Making matters worse, Memphis seems to be making it a point to hang crooked numbers on opponents and cover point spreads. Case in point: last week’s 59-8 carnage at Charlotte, where the Tigers put up 674 yards of offense and forced four turnovers.
Regarding that result, over the last 13 years, CFB teams that scored 58 or more points while allowing fewer than 10 have carried that momentum into the next outing, going 165-124 ATS (57.1%). In terms of effective scoring, Memphis currently ranks 6.2 points below their effective scoring average. UAB scores 2.8 points fewer than their opponents allow on average. Both numbers project 18 points for the Blazers. In which case, with a 57.5 total, we could reasonably expect 39.5 points from Memphis.
College Football Best Bet: I’ll lay the 14 points with Memphis here
Virginia Tech at California (+10)
What a heartbreaking loss for head coach James Franklin and his Virginia Tech team last week as a last-second field goal went wide left (or did it?) as Pitt claimed the 2-point win. Not only does that type of loss tend to have a hangover effect, but this spot for the Hokies in Berkeley also brings about one of the longest travel scenarios possible. Road teams in conference games coming off very close losses of less than 3 points have struggled lately, 87-119 ATS (42.2%) since 2011.
Most of my numbers say that the Hokies are overpriced at -10 on the road. My effective play by play numbers say the line should be closer to 4.5, and my power ratings say 7.6. Not only that, but a couple of key team tendency angles find California is 32-22 (59.3%) ATS as an underdog since 2018, and 21-20 SU and 26-15 ATS (63.4%) in revenge mode since 2016. The Bears are 2-3 so far, but have faced tough teams, notably UNLV, Clemson, and UCLA. Quarterback Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele has also proven in his short career that he can keep his team in games with his arm. With over 90% handle at DK on the Hokies here, I fear this one won’t be that easy.
College Football Best Bet: Give me Cal +10 to threaten Virginia Tech on Saturday
Ole Miss at Vanderbilt (Total 56.5)
Ole Miss had last week off to reflect on its ugly loss to Florida and prepare for the rest of the season. They also have had two weeks to correct obvious defensive shortcomings early on, as they allowed 52 points to Florida and 38 to Louisville so far. The Rebels are a capable, talented unit defensively, as shown by their effective average points allowed of 14.8, 0.9 better than Vanderbilt. I say that because, in reality, these are two pretty good defenses going at it, and I expect this game to be a bit lower scoring than the experts do.
With 5-star recruit QB Jared Curtis potentially out again after missing the Georgia game, head coach Clark Lea can’t afford to get into a shootout with the Rebels. Speaking of last week’s bye, Ole Miss is 18-4 (81.8%) to the Under in their last 22 post-bye-week games. Where the money is going here also has me intrigued, as most of the handle is on the Under, while more bets are on the Over. The sharp money seems to be bringing the total down.
College Football Best Bet: I think UNDER 56.5 is the way to go in Ole Miss-Vandy
Houston at Kansas State (-2.5)
I’ve always believed that Manhattan, Kansas, was one of the toughest places for opposing teams to play in the Big 12. Currently, the Wildcats are on a five-game SU and ATS winning streak there when playing as a home favorite of 7 points or less against conference rivals. The average score in those games was 41.2-20.2, so the games haven’t even been close. The home-field edge clearly makes the difference in these contests, particularly when KSU is a capable team, which they are now.
For this Saturday, ranked Houston comes in and is catching 2.5 points, a curious number. However, recall that unranked teams that are favored over ranked teams in Power 4 conference games boast a record of 63-30 SU and 52-37-4 ATS (58.4%) dating back to November 2016. On top of that, Kansas State is 13-8 ATS (61.9%) following up a SU loss in the last five seasons. Believe me, the Wildcats are still stinging from that 31-26 loss two weeks ago in Cincinnati. They are rested, they are favored, and most of the money is on the ranked favorite. Sounds like a good recipe to me.
College Football Best Bet: Give me Kansas State -2.5 versus Houston
North Dakota State at UNLV (+3)
I’ve had my eye on this game since early in the season, as I figured it would be a spot where North Dakota State finally got its first real test. The Bison’s most impressive win thus far is a 38-32 decision at Air Force. Here, they are taking on a UNLV team that still has its sights set on the Mountain West title game, a contest they are well familiar with in recent years. The Runnin’ Rebels have also put together back-to-back wins after a puzzling slow start.
As it is, UNLV is on a 25-13 (65.8%) ATS run following a SU win. They don’t often get to play as home underdogs either; in fact, only once in their last 10 home games. They won that one 30-23 over UCLA in September 2025. My effective play by play numbers, which have schedule strength built in, show that UNLV shouldn’t be an underdog at all, with that metric listing head coach Dan Mullen’s team as a -1.9-point favorite. What’s more, the unbalanced DK betting action on this game, with a heavy majority on NDSU, puts this angle in play: When the majority of the handle was on road favorites for an ATS wager since the start of the 2022 season, this majority group is just 397-442 ATS (47.3%).
College Football Best Bet: I’ll go with UNLV +3 versus North Dakota State
Boise State at Fresno State (+6.5)
The rivalry between Boise State and Fresno State has always been one where we can expect the unexpected. In fact, underdogs are on a 6-6 SU and 10-2 ATS run in the Broncos-Bulldogs set. This year’s regular season matchup sets up as another potential dog-dominated day, and in this case, I mean Bulldog, as Fresno State is on a 9-1 ATS streak as a home underdog in conference play and comes into the showdown on a four-game SU and ATS winning streak.
Boise has also won four straight outright, but its play has been a little uneven in that stretch. One of the big underdog upset wins in this series came last year, when FSU (+17) went to Boise and won 30-7. That sets up a nice fade revenge angle for this game: Teams looking to avenge outright losses where they were double-digit favorites have struggled, going just 118-134 ATS (46.8%) since 2016. Not surprisingly, the betting public is all over the road chalk Broncos here, 93% on the handle, 88% on the bets. When the majority of the handle was on road favorites for an ATS wager since the start of the 2022 season, this majority group is just 397-442 ATS (47.3%). Hard to see this one being easy for Boise, particularly with my effective play by play numbers indicating FSU should be a -0.7 point favorite.
College Football Best Bet: I’ll get behind another dog cover in the Boise State-Fresno State (+6.5) series
For more college football Week 6 best bets and analysis, visit the College Football Week 6 hub, exclusively on VSiN.
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