Tuley’s Takes – Week 8 College Football Best Bets, Picks and Predictions:
College football Week 7 was better here in the Tuley’s Takes home office, as we feel we hit midseason form at the midway point of the 14-week regular-season schedule.
I went 3-2 ATS with my best bets in this weekly column as I swept the side and total with Temple +10 and Over 52.5 points in Navy’s 32-31 win over Temple (we nearly had the outright upset with the double-digit dog). I also won with Arkansas +10.5 in a 34-31 loss at Tennessee. The losses were on Florida +7.5 at Texas A&M and Auburn +4 vs. Georgia. That improves our season “takes” record to a still subpar 14-16 ATS, but I am hoping to carry the momentum into the second half.
Let’s get started with four (hopefully) live underdogs on Saturday.
South Carolina (+5) vs. Oklahoma
Saturday, 12:45 p.m. ET/9:45 a.m. PT
Tuley’s Take: Oklahoma suffered its first loss of the season, 23-6, last week in the Red River Rivalry vs. Oklahoma, as it wasn’t much of a shootout. Regular readers of mine know that makes them a “mini anti-swagger” play after having a five-game winning streak snapped. OU apologists will argue that QB John Mateer wasn’t 100% and will bounce back this week, but I’m not sure he will. Plus, he might not be the best QB on the field with South Carolina’s LaNorris Sellers. It’s probably a coin flip, which is what I make this point spread. The Gamecocks are only 3-3, but they’ve faced a tough schedule and match up well in this pivotal game for their season.
College Football Best Bet: South Carolina +5
Purdue (+3) at Northwestern
Saturday, 3 p.m. ET/Noon p.m. PT
Tuley’s Take: This is another case of a team that is used to being an underdog (Northwestern) being thrust into the chalk role. Part of that is due to the Wildcats’ stunning 22-21 upset of Penn State in Not-So-Happy-Valley last Saturday as 21-point dogs. But I gotta say, the upset was more about Penn State continuing to implode, which led to the firing of James Franklin. At 4-2 overall and 2-1 in the Big Ten, maybe Northwestern will get more comfortable as chalk, but I’ll fade them here with a Purdue team that is 2-4 and 0-2 in the Big Ten, as the Boilermakers have been competitive in their last three losses to USC, Notre Dame and Minnesota. Purdue has the better offense, and I believe their defense is battle-tested enough to be thrilled to be able to shut down an opponent.
College Football Best Bet: Purdue +3
UL Monroe (+5) vs. Troy
Saturday, 3 p.m. ET/Noon p.m. PT
Tuley’s Take: UL Monroe comes in off an ugly 23-8 loss to Coastal Carolina last week to fall to 1-1 in the Sun Belt, but they have a chance to get back in the conference race as Troy is 2-0 in league play. UL Monroe has already beaten one of the other top contenders, Arkansas State. I landed on this game myself because the Warhawks have the better defense, but handicapper Marc Lawrence of playbooksports.com reinforced this as more of a bet against Troy. The Trojans, to their credit, come in on a three-game winning streak, all as underdogs, but Lawrence points out that teams off three straight upsets often can’t handle being put in the role of favorite, going 16-24 ATS the last 16 years. His “well-oiled machine” says that if they’re facing a team that won six or fewer games last year (like UL Monroe), the record drops to 7-19 ATS, and if the foe’s defense allows fewer than 30 points a game (UL Monroe), that dog-turned-chalk plummets to 2-15 ATS. This line has been bet down from +6 to +5 at most books, though some books were at 5.5 as of Friday afternoon, so shop around as always.
College Football Best Bet: UL Monroe +5 or better
Arkansas (+7.5) vs. Texas A&M
Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET/12:30 p.m. PT
Tuley’s Take: We lost by fading Texas A&M at home last week and lost with Florida +7.5 when the Aggies pulled away in the fourth quarter for a 34-17 victory. But we’re taking another shot at them with an Arkansas team that came through for us in a 34-31 loss at Tennessee as 10.5-point dogs. We get Arkansas here as a home dog of more than a TD against an A&M team that is only playing its second road game (and that was its closest game in a 41-40 win at Notre Dame). Taylen Green and the Razorbacks’ offense should be able to match the Aggies score for score, just like they did on the road at Tennessee.
College Football Best Bet: Arkansas +7.5
For more college football Week 8 best bets and analysis, visit the College Football Week 8 hub, exclusively on VSiN.
