Tuley’s Takes – Week 9 College Football Best Bets, Picks and Predictions:
This is a huge weekend in the Tuley’s Takes home office, with our regularly scheduled NFL Takes column posted Wednesday and my annual columns on horse racing’s two-day Breeders’ Cup on Friday and Saturday, but we also want to keep our winning ways going in college football.
My Best Bets went 3-1 ATS last weekend with wins on Wyoming +5.5 in the Cowboys’ 28-14 win vs. Force on Friday night plus Saturday’s plays on Michigan +7.5 in the Wolverines’ 13-6 OT home loss vs. Indiana and Minnesota +7 in the Golden Gophers’ 13-10 home upset of Iowa. Our lone loss was Pittsburgh +20.5 in a 52-23 loss (ouch!) at No. 1 Miami-Fla., but it still only counts as one loss and we’ll take 3-1 ATS any day.
We actually moved to profitability at 18-15 ATS (54.5%) and +1.5 units at the standard -110. Hopefully we can improve on that over the last five weeks of the regular season and into the bowls and CFB Playoff.
Let’s apply our “dog or pass” philosophy to Week 9’s card with a continued emphasis on home dogs as that’s how we helped turn around this season.
#22 Arizona (+3.5) at #13 Texas Tech
We’ll start on the road with a noon ET Saturday kickoff in Texas. I haven’t faded Texas Tech this year as the Red Raiders have mostly looked impressive, though I wish I had back on Friday, Sept. 18, as they only beat Houston as 7.5-point home favorites (ironically, that was also a matchup of #13 vs. #22 teams), but this is a great spot to fade them after losing 37-24 at Cincinnati last Saturday to fall from the unbeaten ranks to 6-1. Longtime handicapper and frequent VSiN guest Marc Lawrence of playbooksports.com has this game listed among his “bubble burst” plays this week of teams that suffer their first loss of the season. Lawrence’s system was part of the origin of what me and one of my ViewFromVegas.com Forum members, tpking (stands for Toilet Paper King, as he owned an apartment supply company), called “anti-swagger plays” of teams that just had a win streak snapped of six games or more. Lawrence has his “bubble burst” system teams from the start of a season at 23-34-1 ATS since 1980 and 14-28 ATS if coming off a loss of 12 points or fewer, so they usually play like they had the swagger beat out of them and usually have a letdown. And Arizona is no slouch at 6-1 and coming off an impressive 39-3 rout of Iowa State. Also, it’s interesting to note that Arizona also blew out Cincinnati (the same team that beat Tech last Saturday) 34-7 back on Oct. 3, so I’m counting on the Wildcats to be in this the whole way to pull off the minor upset or lose by just a field goal.
College Football Best Bet: Arizona +3.5
#6 Utah at Cincinnati (+6.5)
Speaking of Cincinnati, I also wish I had bet them as 11.5-point road dogs at Texas Tech last week, but I couldn’t pull the trigger after the Bearcats let me down the prior week by blowing the game and cover in a 45-42 loss at West Virginia. I wasn’t sure they could match Tech score-for-score, but they did with a balanced offense, so I’m jumping back on them as home dogs vs. No. 6 Utah, which is undefeated at 7-0. Utah has the nation’s longest winning streak at 12 games, but their last two wins were by only one score and this should be another back-and-forth shootout. Can Cincinnati pull a second straight home upset of a Top 10 team? I think it’s closer to a coin flip than this line indicates, but I’ll take the bonus point.
College Football Best Bet: Cincinnati +6.5
#17 Florida (+12.5) vs. #3 Georgia
Both teams are chasing first-place Kentucky (as the late, great Norm Macdonald famously used to say, “Wait! What?”) in the SEC. This isn’t a home underdog, but at least it’s the next-best thing: a neutral-site game at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta after 32 years in Florida (EverBank Stadium in Jacksonville is undergoing renovations). It’s almost a home game for Georgia, though tickets to the “World’s Largest Cocktail Party” are split 50/50. Anyway, I just won with Florida two weeks ago in the Gators’ 27-24 outright upset of No. 7 Texas as 11.5-point road dogs, as I felt the line was too high, and we’re getting a similar number here as the line continues to climb (it’s as if people are betting Georgia as a home favorite). We’ll gladly take the points again whether it’s Tramell Jones Jr. (22-for-35, 155 yards, two TD passes in first start vs. Texas) or Aaron Philo (1,341 yards, nine TDs, three INTs in first six games). Oh, and Georgia is also in a “bubble burst/anti-swagger” spot after losing 27-24 to Auburn to fall from the No. 1 ranking and to 6-1 overall.
College Football Best Bet: Florida +12.5
#24 Oklahoma State at Iowa State (+9.5)
Let’s close with a home dog: Iowa State hosts No. 24 Oklahoma State in Ames, Iowa, where the Cyclones usually protect their turf. They won their last home game 45-42 over West Virginia, but the game I keep looking back on is their 31-17 loss to No. 15 Utah, since it was priced similarly against a ranked team. Iowa State didn’t cover as 7.5-point home dogs, but they stayed within the spread at 24-17 late before Utah tacked on an insurance TD. That shows me they can stick around here, too. The Cyclones are coming off an embarrassing 39-3 loss at Arizona (one of the reasons I picked UA above), but that was with the backup quarterback, and coach Jimmy Rodgers is going back to starter Jaylen Raynor, who has just seven TD passes and four INTs, but the offense was still better with him.
College Football Best Bet: Iowa State +9.5
For more Week 9 college football best bets, visit the Week 9 College Football Betting Hub, exclusively on VSiN.com.
