UCF Knights:
There are many college football bettors who would point to UCF as being a dark horse candidate in the Big 12 this season. Gus Malzahn brings 15 starters back from 2023 and they landed a big fish – literally and figuratively – in the transfer portal in quarterback KJ Jefferson. If everything goes right “The Bounce House” in Orlando could be rocking once again this season.
Offense
The addition of Jefferson is massive for Malzahn. His system thrives with athletic quarterbacks like Jefferson, and his profile has brought up comparisons to Cam Newton’s time under Malzahn in 2010.
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Jefferson ran for 2,477 yards in his time at Arkansas, and he averaged 4.48 yards per carry after contact due to his overwhelming size. He is also a very solid passer who completed at least 64.2% of his passes each season as a starter and posted a 64/17 TD/INT ratio. His turnover-worthy play rate was just 3.6% in three seasons.
The Knights have plenty of talent at the skill positions as well. Wide receiver Kobe Hudson was fourth in the Big 12 in yards per reception last season (20.7). Running back RJ Harvey was third in the conference in rushing (1,416) and named to the third-team All-Big 12. He helped lead an offense that finished 10th in EPA per rush. The addition of Jefferson to this group should make them even more dangerous this season.
Defense
This will ultimately be what holds UCF back if it fails to achieve what some believe it could. The Knights were 105th in overall opponent EPA per play last season and 125th against the run. Opponents averaged 4.9 yards per carry and 5.8 yards per play. Eight starters return from that group.
Malzahn took steps to improve the defense in the offseason by bringing in Ted Roof for the position of defensive coordinator. Roof was the DC at Oklahoma last season. Perhaps a better scheme could help improve this group, but a leap that big is massive and unlikely.
The group does return some talent. Defensive end Malachi Lawrence was second in both sacks (8) and pressures (25) last season. Lee Hunter – arguably their best tackler and run defender – returns to play defensive tackle alongside him.
Outlook
UCF is just +900 to win the Big 12 at DraftKings to win the Big 12 and a few handicappers seem to be in on the Knights’ chances. They get the benefit of not playing Kansas State this season, but their schedule presents quite a few challenges. UCF must face Arizona and Utah, but will host both. They have to go to Iowa State and West Virginia. To surpass the win total, the Knights must improve from last season by two wins. That is not something I am willing to wager on, even with an upgrade such as Jefferson at quarterback.
Pick: Under 7.5 Wins
