USC vs. Illinois Predictions
On Saturday, September 27th, the Illinois Fighting Illini will host the undefeated USC Trojans at Gies Memorial Stadium. This is a massive matchup in the Big Ten, as the Illini are hoping to avoid back-to-back conference losses while the Trojans are looking to make a big statement on the road. All year, we’re going to be diving into some of the biggest college football games of the season, and this one isn’t any different. With that in mind, keep reading for betting odds and picks for this exciting showdown. Also, make sure you head over to our Week 5 College Football Betting Hub for a look at all of our college football betting content.
MORE: Head to the Pro Picks page for best bets from all of our VSiN hosts and analysts!
How to Watch USC vs. Illinois
Where: Gies Memorial Stadium in Champagne, Illinois
When: Saturday, September 27th at 12:30 pm ET
Channel: FOX
USC vs. Illinois Odds
Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook accurate as of Wednesday, September 24th. Look around for the best prices!
Moneyline: USC -250, Illinois +205
Spread: USC -6.5 (-112), Illinois +6.5 (-108)
Total: Over 60.5 (-112), Under 60.5 (-108)
USC vs. Illinois Analysis
Last year, USC struggled on the road in Big Ten play, dropping games at Michigan, Minnesota, Maryland, and Washington. But that Trojans squad wasn’t built for the slugfests this conference demands. This one is. During the offseason, Lincoln Riley added some big boys on both sides of the ball, improving the quality of both of his lines. That has played a big role in the early success of this team.
The USC passing game has been the best in the country thus far, ranking first in Dropback EPA per play (0.75). However, the Trojans are also eighth in the nation in EPA per rush (0.27). That obviously says a lot about the running backs USC has — Waymond Jordan, Eli Sanders, and King Miller are all fantastic — but it might say more about the line. The guys up front are giving Jayden Maiava time to throw, and they’re creating holes for the running backs. That should allow USC to have more success in road games like these, against some of the more physical teams the conference has to offer.
The Illini also happened to get exposed in a big way last week. Illinois allowed Indiana to rush 49 times for 312 yards and three scores, proving that the Illini have no answer for a good running game. They also got torched through the air, as Fernando Mendoza completed 21 of his 23 passes for 267 yards, five touchdowns, and no picks. Well, Indiana is a fantastic football team, but USC is just as good offensively. That said, the Illinois defense could be in trouble here — especially with defensive back Xavier Scott out indefinitely, plus several other DBs listed as questionable.
The big question is, can the Trojans stop the Illini? If there are question marks with this USC team, most of them come on the defensive side of the ball. But defensive coordinator D’Anton Lynn is a sharp play caller, and he has way more talent with this year’s unit than he had last year. USC’s defensive line has a good mix of run-stoppers and guys that can get to the quarterback, and there’s talent at linebacker and corner. So far, the Trojans are 43rd in the nation in Adjusted EPA per play (-0.09) allowed. USC would like to crack the top-25 there, but 43rd is good enough when the offense is rolling like it is.
The key to this matchup is that the Trojans can probably stack the box a little, as Luke Altmyer might not be good enough to make them pay through the air. Against Indiana, Altmyer was just 14 for 22 for 146 yards with a touchdown. That Hoosiers secondary might be a little better than this Trojans one, but Lynn should be able to watch some film and do his best to set his team up for similar success.
The line movement in this game has also been out of control. Back on September 17th, USC was laying only 1.5 in this one. However, that spread jumped to 6.5 real quick. Lines don’t normally move like that without good reasons. In this case, it’s the good we’ve seen from USC, the bad we’ve seen from Illinois, and the state of the Illini secondary.
The Illini are also 7-18 against the spread in their last 25 games coming off a blowout of 20 points or more. And they’re 2-3 both straight-up and ATS off a loss by 17 or more under Bret Bielema.
USC vs. Illinois Prediction
USC should be able to win this game. Maiava just has this passing game looking so explosive, and they’re working against a banged-up group of defensive backs. That ultimately should make the difference, as long as Maiava can avoid turnovers and the Trojans don’t get shredded on the ground. However, this spread is a little too big for me. With that in mind, I’d pass on laying the 6.5. Though I might throw USC into parlays or teasers.
I’d also say that the Over might be the best way to go right now. USC can score against anyone, and a weakened secondary doesn’t stand a chance. Illinois should also be able to contribute a little to the final. The offense is a little better than we saw last week, and we have seen the Illini hang some big numbers already. The Over is also 10-2 when USC has played games with totals of 56.5 to 63 under Riley.
Lean: Over 60.5 (-109)
