USC vs. Notre Dame
In one of college football’s most storied rivalries, Notre Dame hosts USC in a game with serious long-term implications. After starting the year 0-2, the Fighting Irish really can’t afford to lose another game in the regular season if they want to make the College Football Playoff. However, the Trojans have the same goal in mind, and this is a game they absolutely must have. Keep reading for betting insights, odds, and key matchup information to help you decide how to bet this game on October 18.
Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook as of October 17, 9:30 pm ET; check out our DraftKings Betting Splits and Circa Betting Splits.
USC Trojans at Notre Dame Fighting Irish (-10, 60.5)
Saturday, October 18th at 7:30 pm ET
USC is currently first in the nation in Adjusted EPA per play (0.38). Jayden Maiava, who has thrown for 1,852 yards with 13 touchdowns and only two picks, has been awesome in his first full year as Lincoln Riley’s starter — thanks in part to star wide receiver Makai Lemon. The Trojans also happen to have a highly efficient running game, which makes everything easier on Maiava.
All in all, USC is No. 1 in the country in Offense Success (56.2%). And you’d think that would make the Trojans a great bet as a double-digit underdog against an Irish team that is just 57th in EPA per play allowed (-0.01) and 69th in Defense Success (40.7%). However, this is a game in which our DraftKings betting splits page shows some serious sharp action on the home team. While USC has taken nearly 75% of the tickets and 64% of the handle, this spread has gone from Notre Dame -8.5 to Notre Dame -10. The Circa Sports splits are nearly identical. That significant reverse line movement actually talked me off the Trojans side in this one.
It’s pretty clear that smart bettors like CJ Carr and this Fighting Irish offense to match the production of Maiava and Co. Notre Dame is 15th in the nation in EPA per play (0.16), and the unit seems to continue getting stronger and stronger. The Irish also have an edge over the Trojans on the defensive side of the ball, which says a lot considering how poorly they played to start the season.
Now that Notre Dame’s defense is starting to come around, this does look like more of a troubling spot for USC. It’s also hard not to note that the Irish won by 14 when these teams met in the Coliseum last year, and Maiava had two costly turnovers in that one. Sure, that Notre Dame team was a lot better than this one, but this is also a home game. And for as good as USC has looked this year, the team is 0-2 against the spread on the road this season.
The Irish are also 10-2 against the spread under Marcus Freeman when facing teams that allow a completion percentage of 62.0% or higher. Notre Dame beats up on teams with bad passing defenses, winning those games by an average of 24.4 points per game. Also, USC is 0-5 ATS when playing road games with totals of 56.5 to 63 under Riley.
If I was forced into action in this game, I’d still say that grabbing 10 or 10.5 (available at Hard Rock) is the move. These offenses should go back and forth, and I wouldn’t be surprised if Carr makes a mistake or two that prevents the cover. We actually just saw Notre Dame struggle in the red zone against NC State last week, and doing that again would make it hard to win by 11+. But the line movement here is so jarring that I can’t bring myself to take it. Also, while I considered the Over with these explosive offenses and bad defenses, the number is quite high and I have been burned enough taking Overs on Notre Dame over the last few weeks. Considering all of that, I’ll enjoy watching this one without having any plays.
Lean: USC +10.5 (-115)
Check out picks from VSiN hosts and guests on this game and all of the Week 8 games on our Pro Picks Page.
