Utah Utes:

The Utes are favored to win the Big 12 in their first season, and for good reason. Nine starters return on a defense that was one of the best in the country. Only six come back on offense, but Cam Rising will play his seventh season after missing 2023 with an injury. Utah is old, physical and talented. Coupling that with a manageable schedule in conference play and their status as favorite makes all the sense in the world.

Offense

Rising’s return to college football is massive for Utah. The seventh-year quarterback had the fourth-best PFF offense grade in the Pac-12 in 2022 among fellow signal-callers. Rising threw for 3,030 yards, ran for 523 yards and was responsible for 32 total touchdowns that season.  If he can recapture that form, Utah has one of the best quarterbacks in the Big 12.

 

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Running the ball is a staple for Utah, but both offensive line and running back are positions of question for the Utes. Three offensive linemen departed from last season’s team, one of which was a sixth-round draft pick for the Seahawks. Jaylon Glover – who started one game and ran for just 562 yards – is the leading returner in the backfield. At wide receiver, the Utes return a pair of seniors that should help bring Rising along quickly. He also gets the benefit of throwing to tight end Brant Kuithe, who was selected to the All-Big 12 preseason team.

Production might not be on the same level as 2022, but Utah should be much improved than it was last season when it finished 103rd in the country in EPA per play.

Defense

Utah finished last season 11th in the country in opponent EPA per play (-0.119). Nine starters return from that unit, and the Utes look like the best defensive team in the Big 12 as we enter the 2024 season.

The position of strength for Utah will be its defensive line. Johan Ellis was drafted in the third round by Denver, but the rest of the position group returns from last season. Defensive tackle Junior Tafuna – also named to the preseason All-Big 12 team – is among the best defensive linemen in the country.

There are some losses in the defensive backfield, but not enough to be concerned about the Utes. This group’s worst ranking was 21st by EPA standards against the run last season. They allowed just 5.1 yards per play and finished fourth in the country in opponent early-down success rate. Expect similar production this season, with so much returning from 2023.

Outlook

Utah is the rightful favorite to win the Big 12 in the betting market. Rising gives them one of the best quarterbacks in the conference, and one of the best defenses from a season ago remains largely intact. They also have a favorable schedule, in which they avoid Kansas State, Kansas, and UCF. The path is extremely clear to a Big 12 championship game.

Pick: Over 9.5 Wins

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