Vanderbilt Commodores:
This feels like it might be a make-or-break season for Clark Lea. There aren’t massive expectations at Vanderbilt, but 9-27 in three seasons isn’t what anybody wants. And things feel like they’re on the brink of spiraling in Nashville. Vanderbilt does have a lot of starting experience on this year’s team, but it’s not exactly SEC-level talent.
The Commodores are also going to be at the mercy of their offensive line play. Tim Beck was hired as Vanderbilt’s offensive coordinator, which means the Commodores are going to spam run-pass option plays. Well, that won’t be viable unless the boys up front can block. And the other side of the ball might be Lea’s calling card, but the unit won’t be good enough to make up for a poor offense.
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Offense
Vanderbilt is going to let Beck run this show and he brought Diego Pavia with him. Last season, Pavia threw for 2,973 yards with 26 touchdowns and nine interceptions, and he rushed for 928 yards with seven touchdowns. He’s not the biggest or most talented quarterback, but he’s comfortable in this system and he’s competitive. So, he might look really bad against good competition, but he should give Vanderbilt a shot against some of its inferior opponents.
As previously mentioned, the offensive line play will decide a lot here. Vanderbilt’s line was a disaster in 2023 and improved play up front is not a guarantee in 2024. If the Commodores can’t run the football effectively, this offense simply won’t be able to move the football. And whoever ends up starting under center will suffer, too.
All in all, there’s not much to like about this unit. And the defense isn’t good enough for this group to be below average.
Defense
A lot of people are excited about Lea taking control of this unit again, and there’s more talent on defense than there is on offense. But Vanderbilt did give up 36.2 points per game in 2023, so how much can things really get better in 2024?
Vanderbilt did hit the portal pretty hard and Lea feels good about some younger players from last year stepping into bigger roles. But the Commodores weren’t able to get after the passer last year, and I don’t see any game-changing pass-rushers on the roster this year. And Vanderbilt’s secondary leaves a lot to be desired.
Realistically, the linebackers are the only above-average group on this defense.
Outlook
For as bad as things might be in Vanderbilt, I still think four wins would be a more likely outcome than two. The Commodores should beat Alcorn State, Georgia State and Ball State. Those games feel like enough to go with the Over here. You’d be looking at a push and hoping for an upset somewhere along the way.
Pick: Over 3 Wins
