Vanderbilt vs. Alabama Predictions
On Saturday, October 4, the Alabama Crimson Tide will have revenge on their minds when they welcome the Vanderbilt Commodores to Bryant-Denny Stadium. All year, we’re going to be diving into some of the biggest college football games of the season, and this one isn’t any different. With that in mind, keep reading for betting odds and picks for this exciting showdown. Also, make sure you head over to our Week 6 College Football Betting Hub for a look at all of our college football betting content.
MORE: Head to the Pro Picks page for best bets from all of our VSiN hosts and analysts!
How to Watch Vanderbilt vs. Alabama
Where: Bryant-Denny Stadium in Tuscaloosa, Alabama
When: Saturday, October 4 at 3:30 pm ET
Channel: ABC
Vanderbilt vs. Alabama Odds
Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook accurate as of Thursday, October 2. Look around for the best prices!
Moneyline: Alabama -425, Vanderbilt +330
Spread: Alabama -10.5 (-108), Vanderbilt +10.5 (-112)
Total: Over 55.5 (-110), Under 55.5 (-110)
Vanderbilt vs. Alabama Analysis
Last year, Vanderbilt broke Alabama in a 40-35 win in Nashville, where Clark Lea’s team was a 22.5-point underdog. Diego Pavia threw for 252 yards with two touchdowns and no picks in that one, and he also rushed for 56 yards. The Tide had no answer for the Commodores offense, and fans in Tuscaloosa were furious with head coach Kalen DeBoer. Well, DeBoer angered some of those fans in Week 1, when Alabama lost to Florida State at Doak Campbell Stadium. Everybody on the internet was calling for the head coach’s head, and suddenly everyone on the planet was an expert on contract buyouts. But DeBoer settled the ship. The Tide have won three games in a row, including an impressive 24-21 road win over Georgia last week. Alabama is back to looking like a national title contender, and DeBoer can win a lot of folks back by pounding Vanderbilt in Bryant-Denny Stadium this week.
Let’s make one thing clear: the Commodores can play. They proved that in a 31-7 road win over South Carolina on September 13, and they’re currently fourth in the nation in Adjusted EPA per play (+0.35). However, this is going to be a hungry Tide team. DeBoer is going to be desperate for revenge, and there are some things we’ll see on the field that should favor a straightforward Alabama win.
This season, Ty Simpson has thrown at least 15 yards on 25% of his pass attempts, and he has completed 55% of those passes. Well, Vanderbilt is ranked 119th in completion percentage against (55%) on passes of 15+ yards. This secondary is beatable deep, and it should also be beatable in the intermediate part of the field. The ‘Dores play a lot of zone, which Ryan Williams and Germie Bernard should be able to bust. The reality is that Vanderbilt defensive coordinator Steve Gregory likes to be aggressive with his blitzes, and his secondary has been able to hold up behind the pressure. But the blitz-heavy scheme won’t work against this Tide offensive line, and Simpson has proven he can shred a thin secondary.
Defensively, Alabama’s front shouldn’t get dominated on early downs the way it did last year. The Tide should be able to clog some gaps and make life difficult on the Commodores running backs. Also, Alabama should have a lot of success making Pavia uncomfortable. The Tide are 12th in the nation in Havoc % (16.1%), and they have some dynamic athletes that will consistently get after him.
This is also a game in which Alabama can run away with things if the team jumps out to a lead. The Vanderbilt offense works really well when Pavia is working with the threat of the run. But he’s less effective when forced to drop back and act like a true pocket passer. And given the matchup between the explosive Alabama passing game and weak Vandy secondary, a big lead for the Tide at some point early on isn’t out of the question.
Under Lea, the Commodores also happen to be just 6-11 against the spread when facing teams that outscore opponents by 10+ points per game. And while the DeBoer era isn’t off to the start people hoped, the Tide are 6-2 ATS as home favorites and 4-1 ATS when facing teams with winning percentages of 75% or better under him.
Vanderbilt vs. Alabama Prediction
Vanderbilt is going to head to the field with a ton of confidence. The Commodores beat the Tide last year, they have a justifiably cocky quarterback, and their head coach believes they can beat anyone. But Vanderbilt’s secondary is going to be in hell going against this Ryan Grubb passing game. Simpson, once billed as a game-managing quarterback, is suddenly looking like one of the best deep-ball throwers in the nation. He should have a field day against these defensive backs. And Kane Wommack, the Tide’s defensive coordinator, should have an answer for this Commodores offense. He probably had nightmares after what they did to him last year, so the preparation that goes into this one should be excessive. Considering all of that, I’m backing the Tide to roll here.
Bet: Alabama -10 (-113)
