Virginia vs. Missouri
On Saturday, December 27, we’ll see a pretty fun matchup between the Virginia Cavaliers and Missouri Tigers in the TaxSlayer Gator Bowl in Jacksonville’s EverBank Stadium. Virginia was a game away from going to the College Football Playoff, but the team was unable to defeat Duke in the ACC Championship Game. The Cavaliers are now taking on a Tigers team that went 8-4 overall and 4-4 in SEC play this season. Both of these teams look to be in decent shape when looking at opt-outs and transfers, but Missouri will be without quarterback Beau Pribula. The dual-threat signal caller will be transferring, leaving Matt Zollers as the starter. Fortunately, Zollers did start three games this year, so this isn’t going to be a situation in which the Tigers are rolling out a cold, inexperienced passer. That said, keep reading for our Virginia vs. Missouri betting prediction.
Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook as of December 23, 9:30 pm ET; check out our DraftKings Betting Splits and Circa Betting Splits.
TaxSlayer Gator Bowl: Virginia vs. Missouri (-4, 44.5)
Saturday, Dec. 27, 7:30 pm ET (ABC)
It’s going to hurt Missouri that Pribula isn’t playing, as his legs made him a dangerous player in this offense. However, Zollers got some valuable experience starting against Vanderbilt, Texas A&M, and Mississippi State. He was also pretty solid in the win over the Bulldogs, going 8 for 15 for 112 yards and two touchdowns.
The reality is that Missouri isn’t going to ask much of Zollers. The Tigers are going to ride the running game in this one, meaning a heavy dose of Ahmad Hardy. The superstar is coming off a regular season in which he rushed for 1,560 yards with 16 touchdowns, and he has a chance to add to those numbers here. Thanks to Hardy, this Missouri team is 18th in the nation in Rush EPA per play (0.106). Combining that potent running game with a defense that is 16th in EPA per play allowed (-0.139) is what makes the Tigers so good.
Missouri should be able to move the chains pretty consistently on the back of Hardy — especially with the size of the Tigers’ offensive line likely to overwhelm the Cavaliers a bit. That’ll really take some pressure off Zollers. However, I would expect a much better version of Zollers than we saw in November. Even though the Tigers will have some key absences at wide receiver, you just can’t underestimate how important these last few weeks of reps have been. Zollers has been practicing as the undisputed first-team quarterback, and he has had more time than normal to get prepped for this defense.
Missouri’s defense also happens to be borderline elite. The Tigers are 16th in the country in EPA per play allowed (-0.139), and they’re in the top-20 when it comes to defending both the run and the pass. That should set them up nicely to defend a Chandler Morris-led offense, as he can occasionally surprise people and beat teams with his legs.
This is also a game that might feel like a letdown for Virginia. While facing an SEC program is exciting, this is a team that nearly made the CFP. That said, playing in this game has to be somewhat disappointing. Meanwhile, Missouri is looking to win a third consecutive bowl game under Eliah Drinkwitz. That could give the Tigers some momentum heading into next year, especially after having inked Drinkwitz to a new contract.
Virginia vs. Missouri Gator Bowl Prediction
Missouri is bigger, deeper, and better than Virginia. The Tigers are also 9-1 against the spread under Drinkwitz when playing as favorites of 3.5 to 10 points, and they have won those games by an average of 14.9 points per game. I wouldn’t be surprised if this game ends up being pretty lopsided, even if it wasn’t long ago that Tony Elliott’s team was knocking on the door of the College Football Playoff.
Pick: Missouri -3.5 (-110)
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